Eurasian Economic Union and Prospective Free Trade Areas

This article considers the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) in light of wider processes of global regionalization or regionalization 2.0. It suggests that the conceptual idea of global regionalization serves as the theoretical ground for modern Eurasian integration. As a result, the Eurasian Economic Union should be seen as an attempt to construct a global region that will be an active part of the emerging “regiopolar” worldorder and global economic space, and hence to ensure that Eurasia does not function solely as a raw-material appendage and a set of peripheral states.

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Z. Kembayev, ‘The (In)Compatibility between Regional Integration Processes in the Post-Soviet Area and within the European Neighborhood Policy’ 59 Osteuropa-Recht 369-377, 2013

This article examines the issue of whether regional integration schemes in the post-Soviet area are harmonious with or contradictory to the EU's European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) as applied to a number of post-Soviet countries. In so doing, firstly, the article explains the major developments with respect to the regional integration processes in the post-Soviet Area, then it illustrates the main characteristics of the ENP and, subsequently, it provides an assessment of compatibility of integration processes in Eurasia and within the ENP. Finally, the article contains conclusive remarks attempting to demonstrate perspectives of integration processes in Europe and Eurasia.

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This paper summarises the political rationale of the economic effects of a free trade area between the EU, the Eurasian Economic Union and other Eurasian countries. It finds that there are substantial trade and welfare increases following such an integration. Especially countries close to the border of the two trading blocs would gain considerably. Furthermore, by ending the mutual exclusivity of EU DCFTAs and EEU membership, such a free trade area would contribute to more stable relations between Russia and the EU.

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Belarus and developing countries: looking for new forms of economic cooperation, 2014

This section of the Belarusian Yearbook 2013 explores main trends in political and economic relations between Belarus and developing nations. In 2013, Belarus intensified political relations with Turkey, South and Southeast Asia and some countries of Latin America. Having realized that it was impossible to boost commodity turnover using traditional cooperation patterns, Belarus shifted the focus on qualitatively new forms of trade and economic cooperation with developing countries. This process, however, takes time, so that the results of many announced joint ventures remain very modest. Besides, the talks on free trade zones of the EurAsEC Customs Union and a number of developing countries have not led anywhere so far. The following main trends are determined: • Considerable intensification of political, economic and trade cooperation with several partners in South and Southeast Asia, Latin America and Turkey; • Continuous stagnation in economic and political relations with Iran, Syria, Egypt, Libya, and Iraq; • Strategic (political) partnership with China, although benefits of trade and investment cooperation with it are quite unobvious; • Minsk’s orientation on innovative forms of trade and economic cooperation; • Expanded diplomatic presence of Belarus on the African continent.

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The EEU has ended up in something of a catch-22. It was designed as an economic initiative which could gradually achieve geopolitical objectives. But the perceived urgency and prevalence of geopolitics helped precipitate a crisis in Ukraine. This, in turn, has further undermined the potential for Eurasian integration to become a sustainable economic project. Thus, rather than have economic integration bring about geopolitical results, geopolitics has threatened the economic basis for the EEU.

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The Russia-driven creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) at the beginning of 2015 has provided the EU with a new range of geopolitical and geo-economic challenges, stemming from Moscow’s predominantly “competitive” view of this new form of regionalism in the Eurasian space. At the same time, a certain level of engagement with the EEU and its member states could also help Brussels create new channels of dialogue with Russia, thereby increasing its ability to effectively address complex regional issues such as the Ukraine crisis. How to strike the right balance? This report starts with a comprehensive analysis of the EEU, focusing on its pillars but also on the main defining features of the stance towards this new form of regionalism held by each country in the Eurasian. Based on this analysis, which also acknowledges and highlights the key role played by China in the region, the report assesses the pros and cons of three possible strategic options for the EU in dealing with the EEU: Full Engagement, Competing Unions, and Tentative Compatibility. The authors come to the conclusion that the most effective and realistic one is Tentative Compatibility, which provides a pragmatic benchmark based on fostering “technical” cooperation across the blocs. In this light, the report offers several recommendations to the EU to adjust its policies (from the ENP to the Security Strategy, to the strategic partnership with China) accordingly.

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in David Cadier (ed) The Geopolitics of Eurasian Economic Integration, LSE Ideas Report, June 2014 Belarus is Russia’s only formal ally. Therefore Russia will keep subsidizing its economy. Two decades of privileged cooperation in various sectors – economic, political and military – have not led to genuine integration but have cemented an overarching dependency on Russia. Lukashenka’s regime, surfing on Belarus’ symbolic and strategic importance for Russia, has successfully traded off its loyalty at a high price, seldom delivering on promises however. Whilst Russia will continue to keep Belarus`s beleaguered economy afloat, the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent Western response - seen as weak in Minsk - have altered Minsk’s strategic calculus. It is no longer balancing between the EU and Russia, but between integrating economically with the Eurasian Union and being diluted in the so-called Russian World. Belarus, along with Kazakhstan, will sign the Eurasian Union Treaty, but will push hard to keep its privileges and refrain from transferring competences to any kind of supranational body, should this entail abandoning sovereignty to Russia. It will continue extracting rent benefits from its transit situation for Russian exports of hydrocarbons amidst shifting geopolitics in the region. In so doing, Lukashenka’s regime can continue delivering services to Belarusians, thereby expanding its chances of survival in the face of both internal collapse and Russian pressures. .

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