Coastal Hazards

El huracán del 59 es una reconstrucción de los daños originados por el meteoro más poderoso que impactó al estado de Colima en el siglo XX. En cuatro capítulo se plantean y contestan, entre otras, las siguientes preguntas: ¿cómo fue que se asentaron los pobladores de Minatitlán?, ¿qué características físicas tuvo el huracán del 27 de octubre de 1959 y por qué causó el deslave que mató a más de 200 personas y destruyó dos terceras partes del pueblo?, ¿por qué reconstruyeron las casas sobre la misma destrucción?, ¿de qué manera el huracán y el deslave afectaron psicológica y socialmente a los minatitlenses? y, ¿cuáles fueron los procesos de cambio provocados por este fenómeno?

Este es un boletín que editamos con motivo del impacto del huracán Patricia en las costas de Colima y Jalisco los días 23 y 24 de octubre del año 2015, como parte de los trabajos colegiados entre integrantes de la REDESClim-Conacyt: http://www.redesclim.org.mx/

The devastating 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami caught millions of coastal residents and the scientific community off-guard. Subsequent research in the Indian Ocean basin has identified prehistoric tsunamis, but the timing and recurrence intervals of such events are uncertain. Here we present an extraordinary 7,400 year stratigraphic sequence of prehistoric tsunami deposits from a coastal cave in Aceh, Indonesia. This record demonstrates that at least 11 prehistoric tsunamis struck the Aceh coast between 7,400 and 2,900 years ago. The average time period between tsunamis is about 450 years with intervals ranging from a long, dormant period of over 2,000 years, to multiple tsunamis within the span of a century. Although there is evidence that the likelihood of another tsunamigenic earthquake in Aceh province is high, these variable recurrence intervals suggest that long dormant periods may follow Sunda megathrust ruptures as large as that of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Las personas están familiarizadas con las olas generadas por el viento y con las mareas, cuyos periodos de oscilación son del orden de segundos y horas, respectivamente. Este libro trata sobre el seiche costero, un evento de oscilación estacionaria que manifiesta un periodo de oscilación intermedio, mayor que el de las olas por viento y menor que el de la marea. El seiche costero es poco conocido por las personas que visitan o residen en la costa. Su carácter intermitente o episódico, lo hace más difícil de ser observado. La costa suroeste de Puerto Rico es uno de esos lugares donde se manifiesta con fuerza este fenómeno físico. La primera sección del libro trata sobre los seiches costeros forzados por olas solitarias internas (solitones internos). La segunda sección trata sobre los meteotsunamis. Ambos fenómenos físicos son responsables en excitar seiches costeros grandes o extremos en Puerto Rico.

Definition Coastal boundaries delimit a geographical space and are defined by the distances of one or more areas on the coast, the sea or on its interface, on the order of a few hundred meters to many kilometers, average. Coastal boundaries can also extend and go inland by land, from the interior of the watersheds to the limit of a national jurisdiction into the sea. Most criteria for establishing coastal boundaries depend on several factors such as the set of specific problems, the uses of the territory, or the physical and geographical aspects that are relevant to each stretch of coast. Within it, the interaction between sea, land, and atmosphere is produced differently by the occurrence and direct effect of natural events or processes of anthropic origin. Inside coastal boundaries, exclusive forms of fragile ecosystems will be developed, and specific economic, social, and cultural relations are present. Sometimes, because of the complexity and drastic changes that occur in this space, coastal boundaries need to be systematically monitored to favor proper planning and supervision of the coastal marine space and its integrated management. When establishing limits in coastal municipalities , special attention should be paid to the local social component that interacts with the coastal resources.

The Meghna Estuary region of Bangladesh is a unique environment where the constant process of land formation and erosion takes place due to the complex interactions between large river discharge, enormous sediment load, strong tidal forces, wind actions, wave, salinity & cyclonic storm surge and estuarine circulation. These hydrodynamic factors and their interactions shape the morphology of the Meghna Estuary. During dry season upland fresh water flow into the Bay through the estuary is very much lower than that of monsoon season. Tidal action becomes stronger and dominates water flow pattern in the Meghna estuary. The distribution of flow and water level in the different channels of the Meghna estuary are governed by river discharge, the tide and the wind speed. Velocity is higher during ebb tide than that of flood tide due to combined effect of upstream flow and downward tidal current. Velocity in monsoon is much higher compare to dry period because upstream discharge is higher in monsoon. Most of the accretion and erosion mainly occurs during monsoon and post monsoon period. In pre-monsoon and post monsoon, wave height is less compared to monsoon as wind speed is less during these periods. Along the left Bank of this estuary, significant wave is considerable. As a result, tremendous whirl action due to tidal effects and whirl action due to enormous drainage flow during monsoon, wave action, tidal surge of the lower Meghna causes breaching of the major parts of the embankments of polder 59/2 and adjacent area. The main purpose of this research paper is to understand the hydrodynamic features of the Meghna estuary.

Keywords: - Bay of Bengal Model (BoBM), Flexible Mesh (FM), Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Hydrodynamic, Meghna Estuary Study (MES)

In the present chapter, a critical review about various methodological frameworks used for establishing coastal risks is carried out. The following five aspects were taken into account for the analysis: (1) kinds of actual risks; (2) disciplinary approaches about risks; (3) relationship among coastal risk–menace–vulnerability; (4) current tools for
coastal risk assessment; and (5) coastal risk management. Coastal Risk is defined as the ecological, social, economical, functional, and cultural damages possibly caused to coastal areas due to their geographical location. The risk is conditioned by two components: kind of menace and vulnerability. For that reason, coastal risk means that the coastal area is exposed to the possibility of loss. To know the risks a specific coastal area is exposed to, the possible consequences of a natural or anthropic event impact, and the probabilities of some kind of danger or threat to that area, have to be previously assessed

Kabupaten Badung khususnya daerah Teluk Benoa merupakan salah satu daerah berisiko tinggi terhadap bahaya tsunami di Indonesia karena jika tsunami besar terjadi di wilayah Teluk Benoa dan sekitarnya akan membawa dampak yang parah pada daerah sepanjang pantai yang dihuni penduduk dengan kepadatan yang tinggi. Penentuan kerentanan Tsunami menggunakan metode analisis dampak inundasi menggunakan parameter jumlah infrastruktur. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini didapatkan peta dampak tsunami terhadap Infrastruktur yang terbagi menjadi 2 zona terdiri dari 4 kelas daerah terdampak, antara lain kelas tinggi, kelas sedang, kelas rendah dan tidak terdampak. Hasil analisis dari jumlah 280 infrastruktur di kedua zona didapatkan hasil bahwa hampir semua infrastruktur akan terdampak bahaya tsunami yaitu sejumlah 253 infrastruktur dan hanya sedikit yang tidak terdampak yaitu sejumlah 27 infrastruktur. Total infrastruktur terdampak sejumlah 214 terdmpak High dan 39 terdampak Medium, sisanya terdampak Low dan not exposed.


Kata Kunci: Tsunami, Infrastruktur, Bahaya Tsunami, InaSAFE, SIG.

Executive Summary

Geoscientific contributions to infrastructural development in the Geologically hazardous coastal environment at Lae in Papua New Guinea, are the subject of this joint Geological Survey of Papua New Guinea (GSPNG) / Coastal and Offshore Geoscience in East and South East Asia (CCOP) COASTPLAN study.  The study of Natural Hazards in Lae, Papua New Guinea addresses the geological hazards that hinder the physical and economic growth of Papua New Guinea’s principal port and second city. 

Lae lies under the shadow of the Finisterre-Sarawaget range a steep and rugged range of mountains rising over 4000 metres and being pushed continually upwards by a collision between two major tectonic plates. This collision which involves both components of compression and strike-slip is the driving force and in many cases the triggering mechanism for a whole suite of geological hazards.  These hazards not only effect the city of Lae but the communication links with the important highlands region.

The CCOP COASTPLAN project demonstrates that geoscience has an essential role in planning and management of rapidly developing coastal areas. This study, one of three undertaken in East and Southeast Asia, considers the risks to people and property, and the constraints to development, from dangerous and damaging natural events, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, tsunamis and coastal erosion. It has been a 15 month project, with COASTPLAN support of about $US 200,000.  The study has been undertaken by geoscientists at Geological Survey of Papua New Guinea, assisted by special advisors. 

The project activities have included:
• data compilation
• new data acquisition
• technology transfer and capacity building
• information synthesis, identification of    knowledge gaps
• recommendations for future action to further define and reduce or mitigate risk. 

Recommendations for future activities to better understand and minimize the risks associated with each type of hazard include some of the following:

• Earthquakes – carry out a detailed field survey of sediment and foundation conditions in Lae and surroundings to identify locations vulnerable to earthquake – microzonation, induced liquefaction and slope failure.

• Floods – conduct an airborne video survey of the Markham, Butibum and Busu floodplains using state of the art methods as a new database for flood vulnerability assessment

• Coastal land loss – reconstruct coastline behavior, past and present, and  large scale erosion / sedimentation patterns from historical data

• Landslides – Carry out an assessment of landslide hazard potential in the Atzera range and magnitude-frequency studies for landslide induced flood events in the Busu and other major river valleys.  Landslide induced flooding has destroyed 5 bridges in the region since 1993 yet engineers continue to design bridges based on much smaller rainfall flood events

• Submarine processes - measure the geotechnical properties of offshore sediments in situ in offshore boreholes in order to determine the potential for renewed slope failure under various conditions

• Tsunamis – conduct field surveys to accurately locate potential inundation areas from different magnitude waves.  It is perceived that many thousands of people in the coastal settlements and villages around Lae may be at risk

In the preparation of this report it has become apparent that a detailed, comprehensive hazard zonation map of the Lae area is absolutely essential.

• Hazard Map - The single most important recommendation is that a detailed map of the city and its surroundings is required. It should show elevation contours, slope angles, sediment types and properties, liquefaction and slope instability potential, floodplain limits, river channels, river erosion sites and coastal erosion and accretion sites and would provide basic information that would be useful to many people. The map would be zoned to indicate the key infrastructure and population centres that are vulnerable to different hazards as well as those areas are least vulnerable and therefore more suitable for future development. Two versions of the geological hazard  map should be prepared – one using technical language and terms, aimed at planners and engineers: the another in plain language aimed directly the people of Lae, to improve their understanding and emergency response. A Tok Pisin version, the local Lingua Franca could also be published.

Coastal zones are exposed to the continuous action of several factors such as wave height and direction, wind speed, water depth, sediment dynamics, relative sea level change, rainfall and storm surges. All these natural factors make coastal areas highly vulnerable. The interaction between sea level rise and marine storms variability can produce several physical effects, like storm surges affecting coastal systems and low-lying areas. These physical effects can intensify the impacts of natural hazards on coastal zones, in particular those most vulnerable in terms of reduced capacity of adaptation of the ecological and the socio-economic systems. Coastal zones have a crucial importance for the Mediterranean countries as they represent a significant part of their economic activities. The increased risks of natural hazards exacerbated by climate change and the growing concentration of people and activities on Mediterranean coastal regions, could generate disputes on the use of coastal areas and resources requiring updated information and a better understanding on coastal zones vulnerability and exposure at the local scale. Even if extreme events often cannot be predicted, adaptation measures can be planned to reduce the potential risks and to cope with uncertainties. In order to support Mediterranean coastal policy makers in planning adaptation to the physical effects of climate and non-climate changes, the main aim of this research is to develop an Index-based method for the integrated assessment of coastal risk to multiple hazards (MHCRI), which takes into account the effects of sea level rise and storms variability together with human induced forcing. This research considers population growth and tourism development as the most significative human induced drivers and focuses on coastal erosion, coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion as the most relevant natural hazards in the Mediterranean coastal zones. The present thesis adopts the conceptual framework for vulnerability and risk defined in the Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2014). A risk function is developed in order to operationalize the concept of risk into a concrete assessment method. Risk results from the joint action of climate and non-climate forcing and naturals hazards on the coastal system, which is described in terms of vulnerability and exposure. Forcing, Hazard, Vulnerability and Exposure represent the four factors of the Risk function and they are characterized by multiple variables. These variables, defined with relative scores and classes, are associated to the coastal spatial unit defined for the research through a GIS application. The GIS allows calculating the values related to simple or complex variables and to build layers that represent the single factor (e.g. exposure) or the risk index. With reference to the provisions of the ICZM Protocol, we introduce a methodology to define the limits of the coastal hazard zones and the setback lines for coastal erosion, coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion. The coastal hazard zone, intended as a coastal area where the risk occurs, represents the spatial field of application of the index-based method. Firstly a risk index is developed for each natural hazard namely the Coastal Erosion Risk Index (CERI), the
Coastal Flooding Risk Index (CFRI), and the Salt Water Intrusion Risk Index (SWIRI). Secondly the multiple hazards risk index (MHCRI) is developed as a function of the three single hazard indices (CERI, CFRI and SWIRI). The field of application of the MHCRI is the coastal portion defined by the overlapping of the hazard zones identified for erosion, flooding and saltwater intrusion. The Risk value is calculated for each coastal spatial unit applying the Risk function. Multiple hazards risk results from the overlay of the three single hazards as the sum of the values assigned to the variables of each index. The results are mapped in a coastal risk map. The index-based method developed for this research is applied to a concrete case in the western shore of Sardinia and more precisely to the Gulf of Oristano, which is characterised by low-lying areas particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and by intense Storms driven by the winds of the fourth quadrant. The study area is divided in twenty-one coastal units according to coastal geomorphology: seventeen beach shores, three cliffs shores and one coastal lagoon. The MHCRI method is implemented to the Gulf of Oristano in order to analyse the potential consequences of climate and non-climate forcing on coastal erosion, coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion hazards and their impacts on the coastal assets at risk. The Exposure variables are evaluated through expert judgement based on a panel of experts specifically involved for this research. The outputs of the proposed coastal risk assessment method include vulnerability and risk maps for each single hazard and for multiple hazards that can be used to support Mediterranean coastal communities in the implementation of ICZM planning and adaptation measures. Vulnerability map for coastal erosion hazard shows “moderate” to “high” vulnerability values for the beach shores. This result is due to a low resilience of the shoreline associated to high susceptibility. The Risk map for coastal erosion reveals that the highest level of risk is "moderate" associated to urban settlements nearby the dune system. This is due to the low levels of forcing and hazard that insist on this shoreline. As expected the cliff shores present a very low risk to coastal erosion. Vulnerability map for coastal flooding hazard shows values ranging from moderate to high notwithstanding the high to very high susceptibility of the low-lying coastal areas. This result is due to the compensation effect of resilience variables (e.g. ecosystems health and drainage density). The Risk map for coastal flooding shows a moderate to high risk to some coastal villages settled near the shoreline and a moderate risk to flooding for agricultural settlements. The map shows a moderate risk to flooding also at a distance greater than 2km from the shoreline (e.g. the low-lying areas of the “Bonifica di Arborea”). The Vulnerability map for salt-water intrusion shows that the zones of the aquifer closer to the shoreline present the highest vulnerability values. The susceptibility to salt water intrusion is defined adapting the GALDIT index variables to the method proposed for this research. On the other side the Risk map for salt-water intrusion shows the high values for risk for almost the whole aquifer except the areas closer to the shoreline. This result shows the limitations of methods like GALDIT that focusing just on physical variables do not describe the effects of the socioeconomic variables. The coastal
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hazard zone for multiple hazards where the MHCRI is applied, is given by the common area resulting from the overlay of the layers of the hazard zones defined for erosion, flooding and saltwater intrusion. The Vulnerability map for multiple hazards is represented by the sum of the vulnerability values associated to each spatial unit with respect to each Index. The risk map for multiple hazards is also represented by the information associated to each single risk map. The MHCRI index allows the identification of coastal assets exposed to the effects of different hazards and of areas contemporarily exposed to the three hazards. The variable "hazard" is the major innovation introduced in the function of risk than existing indexes. In addition, the variable that describes Hazard factor in the absence of forcing plays a key role in the definition of risk. Further research is required to apply the index to other contexts and to better refine the values and the classes defined for the various factors and in particular for Hazard.

A review of 917 relative sea-level (RSL) data-points has resulted in the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G (VM2) GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25–30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.

Bangladesh, one of the most disaster-prone country in south Asian region experiences tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosions and floods almost every year. Very recently, tropical cyclone ‚Roanu' has caused extreme devastation across the country. Roanu originating from a low pressure area at south of Sri Lanka, gradually drifted towards north and intensified into a cyclonic storm on 19 May 2016. Although, wind shear and land interaction has weaken severity of the cyclone, it casused severe flooding in Bangladesh and Srilanka. Cyclone Roanu turning very deadly for the city of Chittagong, caused severe wind damages, destroyed coastal embankments and triggered heavy rain landslides. Such damages has become great concern to learn flood inundation patterns for such storm surges when sea level will rise due to global warming. To investigate the changes, a hydro-morphological model, Delft3D has been applied and validated for storm surges in the southern coast of Bangladesh. For storm surge simulation, the tropical cyclone toolbox of Delft Dashboard is used on the platform of Delft3D flow module. Model has been calibrated using tidal gague data from BIWTA and simulated to produce inundation maps for Cyclone Roanu under the persent and future conditions considering different sea level rise scenarios.

The purpose of this study was to investigate and quantify trace metal concentrations in Commelina africana L. and psammitic sandflats from an intertidal coastal ecosystem in Niger Delta, Nigeria, and to evaluate their spatial distribution, degree of contamination, and source apportionment. The environmental risks associated with soil contamination were elaborately assessed using potential ecological risk index, sediment quality guidelines, and enrichment relative to background levels. The mean concentrations of Cd, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn in sandflat soil samples are 0.76 ± 9.0 × 10 −2 , 7.39 ± 8.7 × 10 −1 , 2.28 ± 0.35, 0.024 ± 4.0 × 10 −3 , and 74.51 ± 2.55 mg/kg, respectively. Metal levels indicate strong variability with sampling sites. The order of trace metal concentrations in the Commelina africana L. samples is Zn > Ni > Cr > Pb > Cd. The concentrations varied with the sample locations; and the levels of Pb (0.05 to 0.08 mg/kg) at all locations are found to be significantly below permissible level of 0.3 mg/kg. Potential sources of metal loadings may be associated with localised or diffused anthropogenic activities. The average carcinogenic risks are below 1.0 × 10 −6 threshold values, and the sandflat soils are not considered to pose significant health effects to children and adult males and females. However, the carcinogenicity and noncarcinogenicity risks ranking decrease following the order children > adult males > adult females. Comparatively, the hazard quotient and hazard index indicate that the psammitic sandflats might pose a health risk to children in future.

Human societies in coastal zones are arguably the
populations most prone to the danger of geological
hazards and the need to devise strategies to live with
them. Not only do settlers in coastal zones confront,
the major geological problems of earthquake and volcanic
eruption as do inland societies, but any such
hazards are compounded by the situation of life at the
interface between land and sea. Tsunamis are an obvious
link between classical geological hazards and the
ocean, but slower connections are also encountered,
for example sea-level rise associated with the wasting
away of the Pleistocene ice sheets. Slow, neotectonic
changes along coasts are also significant, and starting
in the Neolithic, human activities become a notable
forcing factor in this zone.

In fact, the human dimension is a two way street.
Pioneer settlements from the Neolithic onwards are
clearly constrained by their environments. After initial
colonization of the habitat, the environment is in turn
manipulated by the human inhabitants, who are now
recognized as a geological force in their own right.
Seldom are the human manipulations without significant
problems, so that humanity itself has become a
geological hazard.
Geoarchaeology has long focused on paleonvironmental
reconstructions and landscape evolution. Recent
research progress in the Mediterranean has furthered
the understanding of paleohazards in the coastal areas.

Storm waves and tsunamis have been responsible for the movement and deposition of boulders located near or at a shore. Nott [1,2] proposed a set of formulas to calculate the minimum incident wave velocities required to dislodge cuboid-shaped boulders. These formulas depend on boulder properties, local terrain, water wave parameters and mechanism of dislodgement. Further, Nott proposed a formula to compute the wave height corresponding to the wave velocity, and including a parameter depending on whether the wave arose from a storm or a tsunami. The dislodgement formulas have been improved and extended (cf. Haslett and Wong [3], Nandasena [4]) and references therein) to include additional boulder configurations. Recently, Nott’s approach to inferring wave height and wave type has been criticised. This work is a preliminary study to link boulder- and wave-parameters to a Froude number which might be useful as an alternative approach to deciding between storm waves and tsunami waves as a cause of boulder displacement.

The present article debates on human-derived Landscape Degradation (LD) and sustainable development reviewing the main factors of soil and land degradation in northern Mediterranean peri-urban areas, taken as paradigmatic cases for Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Population growth and urban sprawl were found as the most important factors determining soil sealing, land consumption, biodiversity decline and loss in natural resources. The multifaceted interactions observed between socioeconomic and biophysical factors were also highlighted. The study discusses an integrated set of measures as a policy instrument for sustainable land management of Mediterranean peri-urban areas.

The main purpose of this paper was to develop an Oil Spill Hazard Index (OSHI) concerning hydrocarbon maritime traffic. The subsequent aim is to evaluate this hazard index along the whole Italian coastline and waters.
The OSHI processing derives from the aggregation of two hazard subindices: R1 (concerning hydrocarbons
handled at ports) and R2 (related to hydrocarbons in transit). In order to assess the OSHI along the Italian coastline (8660 km), it has been divided into 335 coastal stretches and for each of them an OSHI value was calculated, considering the amount of crude oil and petroleum products moved in the Italian ports or just passed through continental shelf waters, as well as the major Mediterranean oil routes affecting the Italian seas.
All the results (national oil traffic database and hazard indices) were recorded in a Geographic Information System (GIS) database that contains a comparative spatial analysis of these records in order to achieve a critical scale of the oil spill hazard along the Italian waters and coasts.
The obtained results include computerized cartography and operational maps representing useful tools for decision-makers as well as practical guidelines for the elaboration of a national oil spill contingency plan, and the application of the principles of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) by public administrations and local stakeholders.

Assessing the impact of climate change requires analyzing humans generally, as well as identifying unique and elevated risks among subgroups. Incorporating intersectional approaches (e.g., those focused on issues of poverty, place, and race) into public policy may highlight how communities and individuals with fewer resources experience compounded vulnerability to climate-related risks. An intersectional framework yields implications for research and policy in two ways, both broadly and specifically for marginalized groups. First, climate change research and policy would benefit from a more active articulation of intersectionality in its models of adaptation and vulnerability by recognizing groups at high risk for negative outcomes, including distress and displacement. Second, as psychologists document mental health outcomes associated with climate change, engaging in cross-disciplinary discussions will strengthen strategies aimed at reducing mental health disparities.

""""Cocos Bay is a barrier beach under threat of marine erosion from the high energy environment of the Atlantic Ocean. This barrier beach borders the Ramsar listed Nariva Swamp, and helps maintain its delicate wetland ecosystem, however, ongoing coastal erosion at this beach threatens the longevity of this freshwater wetland. Due to the geographical location of Cocos Bay being exposed to Atlantic generated storm events and the low relief of the study area, there is a potential threat of storm surges breaching the barrier beach. Owing to the geological setting of the region (located in an active seismic province with earthquakes, volcanicity and landslides), there also exists the threat of tsunamis. This paper is a GIS simulation of the area extent of inundation and the affected infrastructure from such events. It utilizes a DEM and land-use to quantifying inundation areas, and the extent of vulnerability of various elements. The low relief of the barrier beach renders the area extremely vulnerable from events that trigger sea level increases. Simulations revealed that as little as a 1 m storm surge has the potential to disrupt the Nariva Swamp and threaten coastal infrastructure while higher storm surges and tsunamis have the potential to decimate the entire area. The flood-risk model generated indicates a very high vulnerability to storm surges, along the entire length of the coastline. These results have implications for future development and sustainable management of this ecologically sensitive area.

Keywords: Cocos Bay, digital elevation model (DEM), flood-risk, GIS, storm surges, tsunami, vulnerability.
""""

Although it is acknowledged that there has been an exponential growth in neocatastrophist geoscience
inquiry, the extent, chronology and origin of this mode have not been precisely scrutinized. In this study, we
use the bibliographic research tool Scopus to explore ‘catastrophic’ words replete in the earth and planetary
science literature between 1950 and 2009, assessing when, where and why catastrophism has gained new
currency amongst the geoscience community. First, we elucidate an exponential rise in neocatastrophist
research from the 1980s onwards. We then argue that the neocatastrophist mode came to prominence in
North America during the 1960s and 1970s before being more widely espoused in Europe, essentially after
1980. We compare these trends with the EM-DAT disaster database, a worldwide catalogue that compiles
more than 11,000 natural disasters stretching back to 1900. The findings imply a clear link between
anthropogenically forced global change and an increase in disaster research (r2=0.73). Finally, we attempt
to explain the rise of neocatastrophism by highlighting seven non-exhaustive factors: (1) the rise of applied
geoscience; (2) inherited geological epistemology; (3) disciplinary interaction and the diffusion of ideas
from the planetary to earth sciences; (4) the advent of radiometric dating techniques; (5) the
communications revolution; (6) webometry and the quest for high-impact geoscience; and (7) popular cultural frameworks.

Every year,hundreds of fires occur in the forests and rangelands across the world and damage thousands hectare of trees, shrubs, and plants which cause environmental and economical damages. This study aims to establish a real time forest fire alert system for better forest management and monitoring in Golestan Province. In this study, in order to prepare fire hazard maps, the required layers were produced based on fire data in Golestan forests and MODIS sensor data.At first, the natural fire data was divided into two categories of training and test samples randomly. Then, the vegetation moisture stresses and greenness were considered using six indexes of NDVI, MSI, WDVI, OSAVI, GVMI and NDWI in natural fire area of training category on the day before fire occurrence and a long period of 15 years, and the risk threshold ofthe parameters was considered in addition to selecting the best spectral index of vegetation. Finally, the model output was validated for fire occurrences of the test category.The results showed the possibility of prediction of fire site before occurrence offire with more than 80 percent accuracy. Keywords:
Time series;MODIS sensor;Threshold;NDWI.

The vibrant ecosystem of Sunderbans with its lush green mangrove forest, various types of aquatic species including many rare endemic flora and fauna, birds, crocodiles and the famous Royal Bengal Tiger is a unique Biosphere Reserve. Unfortunately such a productive ecosystem is now exposed to threats of extinction. Besides the natural global phenomena, the land degrading anthropogenic activity is one of the prime factors for this ecological decline. In a forest-society interface, unplanned over exploitation of natural resources is very common. In the case of Sunderbans also, as a result of continuously increasing population pressure almost half of the mangrove forest have been cut down to supply fuel wood, land reclamation for settlement and aquaculture and various other purposes. The situation has become precarious as there seems to be a striking imbalance between exploitation and replenishment, thereby making the ecosystem most fragile. Indiscriminate prawn seed collection, refuse and sewerage discharge from urban areas, spillage of toxic pollutants as well as trashes in the tourist spots of Sunderbans are other anthropogenic factors responsible for environmental degradation of the area. Suitable strategies for the conservation and maintenance of optimum ecological condition of this unique biodiversity have to be planned involving local people, Government and other social organizations.

Overtopping hazard at the beach of Gâvres (South Britanny)
The consulting firms, DHI and GEOS, were commissioned by the DDE of the Morbihan to characterize overtopping hazard at the beach of Gâvres (South Britanny) in order to map the Coastal Flooding Hazard by wave overtopping.
The main objectives of the study were: to provide an informative map of the natural phenomena on the study area, to establish a methodology and calibrate it using an historical event, and to model a 100 year event to characterize the
hazard.
The morphological evolution of the site has been described taking into account the effects related to natural and anthropogenic processes. A chronology of storms and damages has been established to determine the historical event for calibration.
A crossed statistical analysis of the offshore swell conditions and storm surge level has helped to estimate the Metocean conditions which characterize a 100 year event. A combination of a 7 m wave offshore with a marine level of +6.83 m
CM (French reference) has been identified as the most damaging for the site. The water level takes into account the effect of the tide, storm surge, the secular rise of the average level and subsidence.
The hazard maps have been established using the computation of the discharge overtopping structure, during the simulation of the 100 year event.

Author Contributions: S.P. designed the study. S.W. led the landslide and tsunami modelling, while H.S. and A.S. prepared samples and shepherded radiometric dating. G.C. conducted the analysis of biota. F.M., F.B., and M.Ray. assisted in ideation of the study and M.Rod. facilitated field logistics. A.A. organized the expedition and led site selection.