The Cook Political Report has issued its first set of ratings for the 2026 midterm U.S. House elections. Not surprisingly, they show another closely-contested battle for control.
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There are 203 Safe or Likely Republican seats vs. 193 for Democrats. After adding in districts leaning toward one party, the count slightly narrows to 212-205. There are 18 toss-ups.
Special primaries will be held Tuesday for two U.S. House vacancies. There are also State Senate special elections in Iowa and Minnesota.
There are currently two vacancies in the U.S. House, both in Florida and both in deep red seats. As a result, the real action for these special elections will be Tuesday's GOP primaries; the winners will be heavy favorites in the special general elections on April 1.
A third Republican vacancy is expected in the days ahead, as Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) will resign after being confirmed as U.N. Ambassador.
Florida Congressional District 1
Sen. Gary Peters said Tuesday that he won't seek reelection next year. The Michigan Democrat becomes the first retirement announced in the 2026 Senate election cycle.
Peters was elected to the Senate in 2014 and reelected to a second term in 2020. That year, he defeated Republican John James by a 50% to 48% margin. James is currently the congressional representative for Michigan's 10th district.
The Cook Political Report is out with its initial ratings for the 2026 gubernatorial elections. 36 states will hold elections next year. Read the full analysis here ($).
Cook previously released its ratings for this year's governor elections in New Jersey (Leans Democrat) and Virginia (toss-up). Both those incumbents are term-limited.
For 2026, the forecaster sees six highly competitive races. All these are rated toss-up with the exception of Kansas, which starts at Leans Republican.
On Tuesday, there is a special legislative primary in South Carolina. Polls close at 7:00PM Eastern.
State House District 113
While Republicans dominate the South Carolina State House, the Charleston area District 113 is solidly blue. Democratic incumbent Marvin Pendarvis resigned in September. That was too late to remove him from the November ballot, where he ran unopposed.
Amid a number of controversies, the new session of the Minnesota Legislature is supposed to begin Tuesday.
Two vacancies - one in each chamber - will be filled via special election on January 28, with primaries for one of them also taking place today. Live results for those will be available in the State Senate section on this page after the polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern.
State House
The first Tuesday of 2025 brings us the year's first special elections. Three vacancies in the Virginia General Assembly will be filled.
Both chambers are so closely divided that these elections could upend the balance of power. However, these are not taking place in highly competitive districts, so the status quo is the most likely result.
Nonetheless, as the first elections since Donald Trump won the presidency and Republicans took full control of Congress, the outcomes will be closely watched.
The 2026 Senate Interactive Map is now available.
Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate by gaining four seats in the 2024 election. That gives the party 53 seats, although one will be vacant until January 13. Jim Justice is expected to be sworn in on that date after his term as Governor of West Virginia ends.
35 seats are up in 2026, 22 of which are held by Republicans. This includes special elections in Florida and Ohio. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is expected to resign after being confirmed as Secretary of State, while J.D. Vance will become vice president on January 20. The governors of those two states will appoint interim replacements who will serve until the special elections.
The 2026 House Interactive Map is now available.
Republicans held control of the U.S. House in the 2024 elections, although the party's already narrow margin decreased by one. Republicans won 220 elections, Democrats 215.
Republican Matt Gaetz (FL-01) subsequently resigned, with two further GOP resignations likely in the weeks ahead as Michael Waltz (FL-06) and Elise Stefanik (NY-21) join the Trump administration. Stefanik's position requires Senate confirmation. With these departures, the partisan composition is expected to be as narrow as 217-215 by the end of January.
The 2025-2026 Governor Interactive Map is now available.
The eleven gubernatorial elections in 2024 were all won by the incumbent party. However, due to voluntary retirements or those forced by term limit laws, eight of these states have a new governor. Kelly Armstrong (R-ND) and Josh Stein (D-NC) have already been sworn in; the other six will take their oath later in January.
The governorships are nearly split: Republicans hold 27, while Democrats have 23.