The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures

Cristina Cattaneo and Giovanni Peri

No 21622, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Climate change, especially the warming trend experienced by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence the income of rural populations will change, and with them the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 116 countries between 1960 and 2000, we analyze the effect of differential warming trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We find that higher temperatures increased emigration rates to urban areas and to other countries in middle income economies. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of emigration to cities or to other countries, consistently with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies.

JEL-codes: F22 Q1 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-geo and nep-mig
Note: DEV EEE LS
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published as Cattaneo, Cristina & Peri, Giovanni, 2016. "The migration response to increasing temperatures," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 127-146.

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Related works:
Journal Article: The migration response to increasing temperatures (2016)
Working Paper: The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures (2016)
Working Paper: The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures (2015)
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