The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures

Cristina Cattaneo and Giovanni Peri

No 2015.87, Working Papers from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Abstract: Climate change, especially the warming trend experienced by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence, rural incomes will change, and with them the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 116 countries between 1960 and 2000, we analyze the effect of differential warming trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We find that higher temperatures increased migration rates to urban areas and other countries in middle income economies. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of migration to cities or to other countries, consistent with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies.

Keywords: Global Warming; Emigration; Rural-Urban Migration; Agricultural Productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 O13 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env, nep-geo and nep-mig
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The migration response to increasing temperatures (2016)
Working Paper: The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures (2016)
Working Paper: The Migration Response to Increasing Temperatures (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:fem:femwpa:2015.87

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