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- Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Cahaly claimed that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of supposed "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued to be underrepresented in most polls. Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate. Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly garnered substantial media attention for his assertions that Trump would prevail over Joe Biden in the 2020 election, a claim that contradicted the polling consensus. Cahaly's prediction of a Trump victory proved to be wrong, with him (and Trafalgar) incorrectly predicting Trump victories in five battleground states won by Biden. (en)
- ロバート・カヘリー（Robert Cahaly）は、トラファルガー・グループの創設者である世論調査員・政治コンサルタント。彼は、世論調査の回答者が「社会的望ましさのバイアス」のためにトランプに投票していることを明かすのを恐れているとする「恥ずかしがり屋のトランプ支持者理論」（隠れトランプ）の前提に一部基づいて、2016年アメリカ合衆国大統領選挙でのドナルド・トランプの当選を正確に予測した数少ない世論調査員の1人として、2016年にメディアの注目を集めた。 (ja)
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- 12349 (xsd:nonNegativeInteger)
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- Weighting opinion polls to account for a purported "shyness" among Donald Trump supporters (en)
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- We should not be using the firm's Web site content to verify its claims concerning past clients. (en)
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- ロバート・カヘリー（Robert Cahaly）は、トラファルガー・グループの創設者である世論調査員・政治コンサルタント。彼は、世論調査の回答者が「社会的望ましさのバイアス」のためにトランプに投票していることを明かすのを恐れているとする「恥ずかしがり屋のトランプ支持者理論」（隠れトランプ）の前提に一部基づいて、2016年アメリカ合衆国大統領選挙でのドナルド・トランプの当選を正確に予測した数少ない世論調査員の1人として、2016年にメディアの注目を集めた。 (ja)
- Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates. Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Cahaly claimed that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of supposed "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued to be underrepresented in most polls. Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate. (en)
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- ロバート・カヘリー (ja)
- Robert Cahaly (en)
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