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Inference on Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design. (2015). Weber, Andrea ; Pei, Zhuan ; Card, David ; Lee, David S..
In: IZA Discussion Papers.
RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8757.

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  67. Linear programming approach to nonparametric inference under shape restrictions: with an application to regression kink designs. (2021). Ura, Takuya ; Chiang, Harold D ; Kato, Kengo ; Sasaki, Yuya.
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  70. Breaking the Cycle? Education and the Intergenerational Transmission of Violence. (2020). Keskin, Pinar ; Erten, Bilge.
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  82. Taxes and Borrower Behavior: Evidence from the Mortgage Interest Deductibility Limit. (2020). Hanson, Andrew.
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  86. Does medicaid generosity affect household income?. (2020). Kumar, Anil.
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  87. The Lazarus drug: the impact of antiretroviral therapy on economic growth. (2020). Tompsett, Anna.
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  89. The Effects of UI Benefits on Unemployment and Subsequent Outcomes: Evidence from a Kinked Benefit Rule. (2020). Kyyrä, Tomi ; Pesola, Hanna.
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  93. Causal Impact of Having a College Degree on Women’s Fertility: Evidence From Regression Kink Designs. (2019). Lee, Suk-Won ; Sohn, Hosung.
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  23. Elasticity 1000 2000 3000 4000 Bandwidth Notes: local linear estimation, estimated coefficients (blue) with confidence bounds (dash) Figure : Fuzzy RKD estimation with varying bandwidth log time to next job bottom kink sample -2 0 2 4 6 8
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  24. Fan, Jianqing and Irene Gijbels, Local Polynomial Modelling and Its Applications, Chapman and Hall, 1996.
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  25. Florens, J. P., J. J. Heckman, C. Meghir, and E. Vytlacil, “Identification of Treatment Effects Using Control Functions in Models With Continuous, Endogenous Treatment and Heterogeneous Effects,” Econometrica, 2008, 76 (5), 1191–1206.

  26. fV,UV0 ,UB0 |U=u,ε=e(v,uV0 ,uB0 )dv R R fV,UV0 ,UB0 |U=u,ε=e(v,uV0 ,uB0 )dvduV0 Note that the numerator of (10) is exactly fS∗|S=s (s∗) in case 3). Both the numerator and the denominator are continuous as guaranteed by Assumption 4a and Proposition 1 in 17.5 of Zorich (2004). Since the denominator is strictly positive, fUV0 |UB0 =uB0 ,U=u,ε=e(uV0 ) is continuous. The proof for case 2) is analogous with the roles of UV0 and UB0 exchanged. Lemma 4. a) ∂ ∂v fV|S=s (v) is continuous on IV,S. b) ∂ ∂v fV|Q=q (v) is continuous on IV,Q.
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  27. Ganong and Jäger (2014) raise concerns about the sensitivity of the RKD estimates when the relationship between the running variable and the outcome is highly nonlinear. To assess this sensitivity, they suggest a permutation test which shifts the threshold value for the kink across the support of the running variable and estimates slope changes in these placebo samples. One example to demonstrate their method is based on the raw data plot for the bottom kink sample in Appendix Figure 4. Ganong and Jäger (2014) argue that because of the curvature in the global relationships many of the placebo estimates result in large and significant slope changes.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  28. Ganong, Peter and Simon Jäger, “A Permutation Test and Estimation Alternatives for the Regression Kink Design,” June 2014.

  29. Guryan, Jonathan, “Does Money Matter? Regression-Discontinuity Estimates from Education Finance Reform in Massachusetts,” Working Paper 8269, National Bureau of Economic Research 2001.

  30. Hahn, Jinyong, Petra Todd, and Wilbert Van der Klaauw, “Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design,” Econometrica, 2001, 69 (1), 201–209.

  31. Heckman, James J. and Edward Vytlacil, “Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation,” Econometrica, 2005, 73 (3), 669–738.

  32. Hence, if researchers wish to conduct the permutation test, it will be important to control for confounding nonlinearities by taking the distribution of observables into account, as pointed out by Ando (2014). We conclude, that after controlling for covariates our design passes the Ganong and Jäger (2014) permutation test.
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  33. hMSE,F,ν,p,0 p → 1 and MSEF,ν,p,0(ˆ h) MSEF,ν,p,0(hMSE,F,ν,p,0) p → 1 Proof: Because the IK bandwidth optimal for estimating τY,ν shrinks at the rate of n− 1 2p+3 , the preliminary estimators, ˜ τY,ν and ˜ τB,ν, are consistent. The density, variance and covariance estimators are consistent as argued in Imbens and Kalyanaraman (2012). Since the higher derivative estimators also converge to their population counterparts, ˆ CF,p+1,q,ν+q+1 p → CF,p+1,q,ν+q+1 and ˆ CF,ν,p,ν+p+1 p → CF,ν,p,ν+p+1, and the results of the proposition follow.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  34. Imbens, Guido and Karthik Kalyanaraman, “Optimal Bandwidth Choice for the Regression Discontinuity Estimator.,” Review of Economic Studies, 2012, 79 (3), 933 – 959.

  35. Imbens, Guido W. and Joshua D. Angrist, “Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects,” Econometrica, 1994, 62 (2), 467–475.

  36. In addition to the permutation test, Ganong and Jäger (2014) also assess the performance of various estimators in two DGP’s based on sine functions. Relying upon their simulation results, they advise practitioners to use either 1) what we call the bias-corrected local quadratic estimator with the default CCT bandwidth or 2) cubic spline with the generalized cross validation bandwidth. In an additional simulation study, we have modified the Ganong and Jäger (2014) DGP’s slightly,36 yielding a Monte Carlo exercise 35We estimate local linear models with a fixed bandwidth of 2500 for the bottom kink sample and a fixed bandwidth of 4000 for the top kink sample.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  37. Inoue, Atsushi and Gary Solon, “Two-Sample Instrumental Variables Estimators,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 2010, 92 (3), 557–561.

  38. Kapteyn, Arie and Jelmer Y. Ypma, “Measurement Error and Misclassification: A Comparison of Survey and Administrative Data,” Journal of Labor Economics, 2007, 25 (3), 513–551.

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  42. Lalive, Rafael, Jan C. Van Ours, and Josef Zweimüller, “How Changes in Financial Incentives Affect the Duration of Unemployment,” Review of Economic Studies, 2006, 73 (4), 1009–1038. Landais, Camille, “Assessing the Welfare Effects of Unemployment Benefts Using the Regression Kink Design,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Forthcoming.

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  46. LocalLinearModels FGBandwidth Main(Pilot) Estimated Elasticity(std. error) Bias‐Corrected Estimate [RobustCI] FGBandwidth Main(Pilot) Estimated Elasticity(std. error) Bias‐Corrected Estimate [RobustCI] (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) A.BottomKink: 2,501(3,858) 1.37 1.95 4,259(4,918) 2.35 5.04 (0.37) [‐0.59,4.49] (1.20) [‐1.87,11.94] B.TopKink: 4,465(7,255) 2.04 3.67 8,011(12,383) 2.71 1.20 (0.52) [1.24,6.09] (1.07) [‐4.51,6.90] LocalLinearModels LocalQuadraticModels Table4:EstimatedElasticitiesofJoblessnessDurationfromFuzzyRegressionKinkDesign,FGBandwidth Notes:Standarderrorsinparentheses.FGbandwidthisderivedbasedontheoutcomevariable.Pointestimatesandstandard errorsareobtainedfrom2SLSregressionsdescribedinCardetal(2012).RobustCI'sareobtainedbyavariantoftheStata packagedescribedinCalonicoetal(inpress).
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  47. McCrary, Justin, “Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test,” Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 142 (2), 698–714. The regression discontinuity design: Theory and applications.

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  51. Our exercise highlights the importance of the role of curvature heterogeneity in the permutation test of Ganong and Jäger (2014). Specifically, the test may not be informative when the curvature of the conditional expectation function (v) ≡ E[Y|V = v] changes. Suppose (v) is locally piece-wise linear around the threshold v = 0 with a non-zero kink but has substantial curvature far away from the threshold, as appears to be true in our data. In this case, the permutation test may fail to detect the kink at the threshold, as the curvature away from the threshold can lead to many significant local linear estimates. Based on a similar argument, the permutation test may also have poor size control when the curvature of (v) changes.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  52. Roussas, George G., An Introduction to Measure-theoretic Probability, Academic Press, 2004.
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  54. Saez, Emmanuel, “Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2010, 2 (3), 180–212. Simonsen, Marianne, Lars Skipper, and Niels Skipper, “Price Sensitivity of Demand for Prescription Drugs: Exploiting a Regression Kink Design,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, Forthcoming.

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  56. TͲstatisticforcontinuousslopeatkinkͲpoint=1.61 23 24 25 26 27 28 Average Daily UI Benefit -2000-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Base Year Earnings Relative to T-min Bottom Kink Sample Figure 3: Daily UI Benefits 30 35 40 Average Daily UI Benefit -14000-9000-4000 1000 6000 Base Year Earnings Relative to T-max Top Kink Sample Figure 4: Daily UI Benefits 4.4 4.45 4.5 4.55 4.6 Log(Duration) -2000-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Base Year Earnings Relative to T-min Bottom Kink Sample Figure 5: Log Time to Next Job 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 Log(Duration) -14000-9000-4000 1000 6000 Base Year Earnings Relative to T-max Top Kink Sample Figure 6: Log Time to Next Job 4.4 4.45 4.5 4.55 4.6 Log(Duration) -2000-1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Base Year Earnings Relative to T-min Bottom Kink Sample Figure 7: Predicted Time to Next Job 4.4 4.45 4.5 4.55 4.6 4.65 Log(Duration) -14000-9000-4000 1000 6000 Base Year Earnings Relative to T-max Top Kink Sample Figure 8: Predicted Time to Next Job -4 -2 0 2 4
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  57. The optimal fuzzy RD bandwidth is proposed in Imbens and Kalyanaraman (2012). We suggest an extension to be used in the fuzzy RKD case (ν = 1) and state the bandwidth selectors for a generic ν.
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  58. Therefore, we assume that (Yi,Vi) and (Bj,Vj) are independent i.i.d. samples as per Inoue and Solon (2010). The variances of the first-stage and reduced-form kink estimators, ˆ τB = ˆ κ+ 1 − ˆ κ− 1 and ˆ τY = ˆ β+ 1 − ˆ β− 1 can be calculated by using the sharp RKD variance estimator, and the covariance between ˆ τB and ˆ τY is zero by the independence assumption. It follows that the variance of the fuzzy RKD estimator ˆ τY ˆ τB can be calculated by an application of the delta-method. The robust confidence intervals in Calonico et al. (Forthcoming) can be constructed analogously by setting the covariances between the first-stage and reduced-form estimators to zero.
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  59. Thistlethwaite, Donald L. and Donald T. Campbell, “Regression-Discontinuity Analysis: An Alternative to the Ex-Post Facto Experiment,” Journal of Educational Psychology, 1960, 51 (6), 309–317.
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  61. Vytlacil, Edward, “Independence, Monotonicity, and Latent Index Models: An Equivalence Result,” Econometrica, 2002, 70 (1), 331–341.

  62. We replicate this exercise based on the raw individual level data. Following Ganong and Jäger (2014), we randomly draw 200 cutoff values for both the bottom and top kink samples over the range of baseline 34The list of covariates includes: indicator variables for gender, marital status, Austrian citizenship, education (6 categories), deciles for age, tenure, size, and recall rate at the firm of the last job, monthly wage last job (quintiles), days worked over the last 5 years (quartiles), 8 industry groups interacted with blue collar status, region, year, and month dummies.
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  63. Welch, Finis, “What have we learned from empirical studies of unemployment insurance?,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, July 1977, 30 (4), 451–461.
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  64. Zorich, Vladimir A., Mathematical Analysis II, Springer, 2004.
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  65. Zweimüller, Josef, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, Rafael Lalive, Andreas Kuhn, Jean-Philippe Wuellrich, Oliver Ruf, and Simon Büchi, “Austrian Social Security Database, University of Zurich,” Working Paper iewwp410, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics 2009. 10 20 30 40 50 Daily UI Benefit in Euro 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Base Year Earnings in Euro Figure 1: UI Benefits in Figure2a:DensityinBottomKinkSample 0.0050 0.0075 0.0100 0.0125 0.0150 0.0175 0.0200 Ͳ2050 Ͳ1550 Ͳ1050 Ͳ550 Ͳ50 450 950 1450 1950 2450 2950 3450 3950 4450 BaseYearEarningsRelativetoTͲmin Frequency Note:restrictedcubicpolynomialfitshown.

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    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20535.

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  43. The Long-Run Effects of Attending an Elite School: Evidence from the UK. (2014). Del Bono, Emilia ; Clark, Damon ; DelBono, Emilia .
    In: IZA Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8617.

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  44. A Permutation Test and Estimation Alternatives for the Regression Kink Design. (2014). Jäger, Simon ; Ganong, Peter ; Jager, Simon.
    In: IZA Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8282.

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  45. A Kink that Makes You Sick: The Incentive Effect of Sick Pay on Absence. (2014). Suoniemi, Ilpo ; Böckerman, Petri ; Bockerman, Petri ; Kanninen, Ohto.
    In: IZA Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8205.

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  46. Breaking the Link Between Legal Access to Alcohol and Motor Vehicle Accidents: Evidence from New South Wales. (2014). Yerokhin, Oleg ; Siminski, Peter ; Lindo, Jason.
    In: IZA Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7930.

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  47. The long-run effects of attending an elite school: evidence from the UK. (2014). Del Bono, Emilia ; Clark, Damon ; DelBono, Emilia .
    In: ISER Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ese:iserwp:2014-05.

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  48. Estimating the distortionary effects of ethnic quotas in Singapore using housing transactions. (2014). Wong, Maisy.
    In: Journal of Public Economics.
    RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:115:y:2014:i:c:p:131-145.

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  49. Local Polynomial Order in Regression Discontinuity Designs. (2014). Weber, Andrea ; Pei, Zhuan ; Card, David ; Lee, David S..
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:brd:wpaper:81.

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