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Overcoming the zero bound on interest rate policy. (2000). Goodfriend, Marvin.
In: Working Paper.
RePEc:fip:fedrwp:00-03.

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  120. The elusive welfare economics of price stability as a monetary policy objective: why New Keynesian central bankers should validate core inflation. (2006). Buiter, Willem.
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  121. How Robust is the New Conventional Wisdom? The Surprising Fragility of the Theoretical Foundations of Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Independence. (2006). Buiter, Willem.
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  12. 3. Because the inconvenience and physical costs of storing currency are not literally zero at the margin, nominal interest rates can be slightly negative. In fact, the nominal yield on Japanese Treasury bills became slightly negative during the Asian financial crisis last autumn when nominal rates were already very low. Investors were willing to pay for the safety and convenience of government bonds rather than incur the cost of storing currency. Mogi and Zuckerman (1998).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  13. 4. See Chapter 17. Lerner (1952) clarifies some of the analysis in that chapter. See, in particular, Lerners concluding section.
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  14. 5. See Keynes (1936, Chapter 17 page 234 and Chapter 23 pages 353-8), Dahlberg (1938, Chapters 7 and 8), Fisher (1933, Chapter 3), and Hart (1948, Chapter 20, pp. 443-7). Keynes (1936, Chapter 23) credits Silvio Gesell with idea for imposing carrying costs on money in order to lower the floor on nominal interest rates. In a recent paper, Buiter and Panigirtzoglou (1999) -41revive Gesells idea for imposing a periodic stamp tax on currency. They show in a dynamic macromodel, how Gesells tax on money allows the model economy to escape a liquidity trap.
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  15. 7. The shopping time model of money demand is discussed in McCallum and Goodfriend (1987).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  16. 8. Clouse et al (1999) report that real short-term interest rates were negative in most of the 12 recessions in the US since the early 1 930s. The major exceptions occurred in the two recessions of the 1930s and in the post-World War 2 recession, when deflation actually pushed real rates up as the economy turned down. Fisher (1930) points out on page 192 that there is no absolutely necessary reason inherent in the nature of man or things why the rate of interest in terms of any commodity should be positive rather than negative. The interest rate is a relative price reflecting the cost of using a commodity today in terms of future units of that commodity. Barro (1987) explains the role of the real interest rate in macroeconomics as the central intertemporal relative price.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  17. Abelson, Reed. If Deflation Hits Its a Whole New Game. New York Times, November 22, 1998. 1,9.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  18. Barnett, William and Paul Spindt. Divisia Monetary Aggregates: Compilation, Data, and Historical Behavior. Staff Studies 116, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 1982.

  19. Barro, Robert. Are Government Bonds Net Wealth. Journal of Political Economy, 82 (November/December 1974). 1095-1117.

  20. Benhabib, Jess, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, and Martin Uribe. The Perils of Taylor Rules. Manuscript. New York University, 1999.

  21. Bernanke, Bernard, and Mark Gertler. Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 (Fall 1995). 27-48.

  22. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1999. -34Cole, Harold L., and Narayana Kocherlakota. Zero Nominal Interest Rates: Why Theyre Good and How to Get Them. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 22 (Spring 1998). 2-10.

  23. Buiter, Willem, and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Liquidity Traps: How to Avoid Them and How to Escape Them. Working Paper 7245. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, July 1999.

  24. Cecchetti, Stephen G. The Case of the Negative Nominal Interest Rates: New Estimates of the Term Structure of Interest Rates During the Great Depression. Journal of Political Economy, 96 (December 1988). 1111-41.

  25. Christiano, Lawrence J., and Martin Eichenbaum. Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism. American Economic Review, 82 (May 1992). 346-53. Clouse, James, Dale Henderson, Athanasios Orphanides, David Small, and Peter Tinsley. Monetary Policy When the Norminal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero. Manuscript.

  26. Dahlberg, Arthur. When Capital Goes On Strike. New York: Harper, 1938.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  27. Eichengreen, Barry and Peter Garber. Before the Accord: US Monetary-Financial Policy 1945-51 . Working Paper 3380. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, June 1990.

  28. Faison, Seth. Fearing Deflation, Chinese Set Limits on New Factories. New York Times (August 19, 1999). 1.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  29. Feldstein, Martin. The Costs of Going From Low Inflation to Price Stability. In Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, edited by Christian D. Romer and David H. Romer, pp. 123-66. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1997.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  30. Fischer, Stanley. Why Are Central Banks Pursuing Long-Run Price Stability? In Achieving Price Stability, pp. 7-34. Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1996.

  31. Fisher, Irving. The Theory of Interest. Fairfield, NJ: Augustus M. Kelley, 1986. (Reprint of 1930 edition) __________ Stamp Scrip. New York: Adelphi Co., 1933.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  32. Freeman, Scott. Transactions Costs and the Optimal Quantity of Money. Journal of Political Economy, 93 (February 1985). 146-57.

  33. Friedman, Milton, The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays. Chicago: Aldine Publishing Co., 1969. -35Frost, Peter A. Banks Demand for Excess Reserves. Journal of Political Economy, 79 (July/August 1971). 805-25. Fuhrer, Jeff, and Brian Madigan. Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded at Zero.

  34. Goodfriend, Marvin, Why We Need an Accord for Federal Reserve Credit Policy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 26 (August 1994, Part 2). 572-80.

  35. Hall, Robert. Controlling the Price Level. Working Paper 6914. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 1999.

  36. Hayami, Masaru. On Recent Monetary Policy. Bank of Japan, Tokyo, June 1999.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  37. Heaton, John and Deborah Lucas. Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing. Journal of Political Economy 104 (June 1996). 443-87.

  38. Holmstrom, Bengt and Jean Tirole. Private and Public Supply of Liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 106 (February 1998). 1-40.

  39. Jefferson, Philip N. Home Base and Monetary Base Rules: Elementary Evidence from the 1980s and 1990s. Manuscript. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 1997. -36Johnson, Harry, Pesek and Savings Theory of Money and Wealth: A Comment. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 1 (August 1969), 535-37.

  40. Kerr, William and Robert G. King. Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 82 (Spring 1996). 47-75.

  41. Keynes, John Maynard. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. London: McMillan and Company, 1957. (first edition 1936).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  42. King, Robert G. Will the New Keynesian Macroeconomics Resurrect the lS-LM Model. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7 (Winter 1993). 57-82.

  43. Kroszner, Randall S. Repudiaton of the Gold Index Clause in Long-Term Debt During the Great Depression. Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1999.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  44. Krugman, Paul. The Return of Depression Economics. New York: W.W. Norton and Company, 1999.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  45. Kynge, James and Peter Montagnon. China Warns Over its Ability to Halt Deflation. Financial Times (February 7, 1999). 1.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  46. Lebow, David. Monetary Policy at Near Zero Interest Rates. Manuscript. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July 1993.

  47. Lerner, Abba P. The Essential Properties of Interest and Money. Quarterly Journal of Economics 66 (May 1952). 172-93.

  48. Lucas, Robert. Inflation and Welfare. Econometrica 68 (March 2000), 247-74.

  49. McCallum, Bennett. Robustness Properties of a Rule for Monetary Policy. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 29 (Autumn 1988). 1 73-204.

  50. Meltzer, Allan H. Monetary Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes: A Monetarist Perspective. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 (Fall 1995). 49-72.

  51. Mints, Lloyd. Monetary Policy. The Review of Economic Statistics, 28 (May 1946). 60-9.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  52. Mishkin, Frederic. `The Household Balance Sheet in the Great Depression. Journal of Economic History 38 (December 1978). 918-37.

  53. Mogi, Chikako, and Gregory Zuckerman. T-Bills Yield in Japan Shifts to the Negative. WaM Street Journal (November 6, 1998). Cl, Cl 9. Mundell, Robert. Money, Debt, and the Rate of Interest. In Monetary Theory, pp. 5-13.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  54. Nominal yields on US Treasury bonds and notes calculated in the standard way became negative in the 1930s. However, Cecchetti (1988) shows that nominal rates only appeared to be negative by correcting the apparent negative yields for an institutional exchange privilege on bonds. The behavior of nominal rates near the zero bound is discussed in detail in Sections 3.1 and 3.2 below.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  55. Okina, Kunio. Monetary Policy Under Zero Inflation - A Response to Criticisms and Questions Regarding Monetary Policy. Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan 17 (December 1999), 157-82.

  56. Orphanides, Athanasios, and Volcker Wieland. Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness When Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero. Manuscript, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1998.

  57. Porter, Richard D., and Ruth A. Judson. `The Location of U.S. Currency: How Much is Abroad? Federal Reserve Bulletin (October 1996). 883-903. -38Reifschneider, David, and John C. Williams. Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 32 (November 2000, Part 2).

  58. Romer, Christina D. What Ended the Great Depression. Journal of Economic History, 52 (December 1992). 757-84.

  59. Rotemberg, Julio, and Michael Woodford. Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model. In Monetary Policy Rules (A National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report) edited by John B. Taylor, pp. 57-126. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.

  60. Small, David, and James Clouse. `The Limits of the Federal Reserve Act: What types of Policy Actions May the Federal Reserve Undertake? Manuscript. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 1999.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  61. Stavins, Joanna. Checking Accounts: What do Banks Offer and What Do Consumers Value? Federal Reserve Bank of Boston New England Economic Review (March/April 1999). 3-13.

  62. Summers, Laurence. Commentary: Why Are Central Banks Pursuing Long-Run Price Stability? In Achieving Price Stability, pp. 35-43. Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1996.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  63. Taylor, John B. Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39 (December 1993). 195-214. -39Tetlow, Robert, and John C. Williams. Implementing Price Stability: Banks, Boundaries and Inflation Targeting. Working Paper. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 1998.

  64. Uchitelle, Louis. Reviving the Economics of Fear. New York Times (July 2, 1999). Cl.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now

  65. Wolman, Alexander. Staggered Price Setting and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 84 (Fall 1998). 1-24.

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