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Rigobon, Roberto, and Brian Sack, 2008, Noisy macroeconomic announcements, monetary policy, and asset prices, in John Y. Campbell, ed., Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, NBER Chapters, chapter 8, 335–370 (NBER).
- To account for the discreteness of the FFTR, we round FFTR changes to 0.25% and define as many ordered probit categories as needed at any given time t. We then forecast the FFTR by ordered probit following Hamilton and Jord` a (2002). Repeating this procedure for each announcement time in our sample gives us a sequence of coefficient vectors ˆ βt and of nowcasts ˆ Ak p(t),t, where p(t) is the reference period of the very next announcement of variable k after time t.
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urkaynak, Refet S., Brian P. Sack, and Eric T. Swanson, 2005, The excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates to economic news: Evidence and implications for macroeconomic models, American Economic Review 95, 425–436.