Bakhshi, H. ; Kapetanios, G. ; Yates, T. Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: an application to UK inflation. 2005 Empirical Economics. 30 539-553
- Batchelor, R. ; Dua, P. Conservatism and consensus-seeking among economic forecasters. 1992 Journal of Forecasting. 11 169-181
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Bentancor, A. ; Pincheira, P. Predicción de errores de proyección de inflación en Chile. 2010 El Trimestre Económico. LXXVII 129-154
Boero, G. ; Smith, J. ; Wallis, K.F. Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: the Bank of England survey of external forecasters. 2008 International Journal of Forecasting. 24 354-367
Boero, G. ; Smith, J. ; Wallis, K.F. Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters. 2008 National Institute Economic Review. 203 68-77
Capistrán, C. Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?. 2008 Journal of Monetary Economics. 55 1415-1427
Capistrán, C. ; López-Moctezuma, G. Las expectativas macroeconómicas de los especialistas: Una evaluación de pronósticos de corto plazo en México. 2010 El Trimestre Económico. LXXVII 275-312
Capistrán, C. ; Timmermann, A. Disagreement and biases in inflation expectations. 2009 Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 41 365-396
Capistrán, C. ; Timmermann, A. Forecast combination with entry and exit of experts. 2009 Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 27 428-440
Capistrán, C. (2007). Optimality tests for multi-horizon forecasts. Working paper Banco de México 2007-14.
Chiquiar, D. ; Noriega, A.E. ; Ramos-Francia, M. A time series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience. 2010 Applied Economics. 42 3067-3075
- Clements, M.P. Evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts. 1997 Journal of Forecasting. 16 225-239
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Davies, A. ; Lahiri, K. A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data. 1995 Journal of Econometrics. 68 205-227
Davies, A. ; Lahiri, K. ; Sheng, X. Analizing three-dimensional panel data of forecasts. 2011 En : Clements, M.P. ; Hendry, D.F. Oxford Handbook on Economic Forecasting. Oxford University Press: Oxford
Diebold, F.X. ; Kilian, L. Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications. 2001 Journal of Applied Econometrics. 16 657-669
Dovern, J., & Weisser, J. (2008). Are they really rational? Assessing professional macroeconomic forecasts from the G7-countries. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Working Paper No.1447.
Elliott, G. ; Komunjer, I. ; Timmermann, A. Estimation and testing of forecast rationality under flexible loss. 2005 Review of Economic Studies. 72 1107-1125
Gil-DÃaz, F. ; Carstens, A. One year of solitude: Some pilgrim tales about Mexico’s 1994–1995 crisis. 1996 The American Economic Review. 86 164-169
Granger, C.W.J. Outline of forecast theory using generalized cost functions. 1999 Spanish Economic Review. 1 161-173
Granger, C.W.J. ; Newbold, P. Forecasting economic time series. 1986 Academic Press: Orlando, FL
Harvey, D.I. ; Leybourne, S.J. ; Newbold, P. Analysis of a panel of UK macroeconomic forecasts. 2001 Econometrics Journal. 4 S37-S55
Isiklar, G. ; Lahiri, K. How far ahead can we forecast? Evidence from cross-country surveys. 2007 International Journal of Forecasting. 23 167-187
Isiklar, G. ; Lahiri, K. ; Loungani, P. How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys. 2006 Journal of Applied Econometrics. 21 703-725
Keane, M. ; Runkle, D. Testing the rationality of price forecasts: new evidence from panel data. 1990 The American Economic Review. 80 714-735
Lahiri, K. ; Sheng, X. Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model. 2008 Journal of Econometrics. 144 325-340
Lahiri, K. ; Sheng, X. Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts. 2010 International Journal of Forecasting. 26 265-292
Mincer, J. ; Zarnowitz, V. The evaluation of economic forecasts. 1969 En : Mincer, J. Economic forecasts and expectations. National Bureau of Economic Research: New York
Nordhaus, W.D. Forecasting efficiency: concepts and applications. 1987 The Review of Economics and Statistics. 69 667-674
Patton, A.J. ; Timmermann, A. Properties of optimal forecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity. 2007 Journal of Econometrics. 140 884-918
Stinchcombe, M.B. ; White, H. Consistent specification testing with nuisance parameters present only under the alternative. 1998 Econometric Theory. 14 295-325
Swidler, S. ; Ketcher, D. Economic forecasts, rationality, and the processing of new information over time. 1990 Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 22 65-76
Thomas, L. Survey measures of expected U.S. inflation. 1999 The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 13 125-144
- Tversky, A. ; Kahneman, D. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. 1974 Science. 185 1124-1130
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now