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- Credit during Downturn (mean) 1990’s Emerging High Income 37.2 42.3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Credit/GDP at Through (mean) 1990’s Emerging High Income Bust Events The figure shows basic descriptive statistics of credit-to-GDP ratio across the sample during the periods that concentrated boom and bust events (1970s and 2000s for booms, and 1990s for busts). Top panels indicate the sample mean of the average annual change on credit-to-GDP ratio over different economic classification, in percent points of GDP. Bottom panels indicate the sample mean of credit-to-GDP ratios at the turning points of the events (boom’s peak and bust’s through) over different economic classification, in percentage.
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- Credit during Upturn (mean) 1970’s 2000’s Emerging High Income Emerging High Income 18.0 23.0 39.5 121.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Credit/GDP at Peak (mean) 1970’s 2000’s Emerging High Income Emerging High Income Boom Events -3.7 4.2 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
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- Figure 1: Commodity Price Index and Identified Events 50 100 150 200 250 50 100 150 200 250 50 100 150 200 250 50 100 150 200 250 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Australia Canada Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Boom Bust Commodity Price Index The figure shows the evolution of the commodity price indexes provided by C espedes and Velasco (2011) for a subsample of countries chosen from our data. Boom and bust events are the ones identified by the authors according to the methodology explained in Section 2.
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- Figure 2: Commodity Price Index During Boom and Bust Events 12.3 -14.1 -21.7 15.1 -20 -10 0 10 20 Boom Bust Upturn/Downturn Reversion Commodity Price Index Change (mean) The figure shows the mean across the sample of the average annual percentage change of commodity price indexes provided by C espedes and Velasco (2011), calculated over the duration of each phase.
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- Figure 3: Number of Countries Experiencing Commodity Price Boom and Bust Events 0 10 20 30 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Boom Bust The figure shows the sum of all countries experiencing boom or bust events at each year. Given that events last longer than a year, countries are counted repeatedly during consecutive years since the beginning until the end of each event that it experiences.
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Figure 4: Number of Countries with Different Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Openness Degrees 0 20 40 60 80 100 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Exchange Rate Regime Fixed Mixed Flexible 0 20 40 60 80 100 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Financial Openness Low Moderate High The figure shows the number of countries as a percentage of the total, under different exchange rate regimes and financial openness degrees at each year according to Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) and Chinn and Ito (2008), respectively.
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- Newey-West (1987) standard errors are reported in parentheses. *** indicates statistical significance at 1% level, ** at 5% and * at 10%.
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- Newey-West (1987) standard errors are reported in parentheses. *** indicates statistical significance at 1% level, ** at 5% and * at 10%.
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Ramcharan, R., and R. Rajan (2012): “The anatomy of a credit crisis: the boom and bust in farm land prices in the United States in the 1920s,†Discussion paper.
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