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- Appendix Table B1 shows that self-reported individual (planned) voting for UKIP in the British general elections in 2005, 2010 and 2015 is a meaningful indicator for anti-EU and anti-immigration preferences across a range of these cross sections. In particular, the analysis suggests that UKIP voters are more likely to support the view that the EU is responsible for the UK’s debt levels, that the EU is a threat to British sovereignty, that Britain let in too many immigrants into the country and that immigration increases crime, is bad for the economy and for job prospects of natives. B.2 Council elections The data for district elections in Great Britain is taken from The Elections Centre.
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- Empirical specification I build on our previous analysis that documents that UKIP’s electoral ascent post 2010 is driven by places with weak economic fundamentals.
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- Figure 1: UKIP Election Result in 2014 EP elections and EU referendum vote leave.
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- Figure 2: UKIP vote share in the EP elections in 2004, 2014 and the Leave share in the 2016 EU referendum Panel A: UKIP vote in 2004 Panel B: UKIP Vote in 2014 Panel C: Leave share Notes: This map displays the UKIP vote share in the European Parliamentary elections in 2004 and 2014 in Panel A and B, and the share of the electorate that voted leave in the 2016 EU referendum across local authority districts in Panel C.
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- Figure 4: Aggregate real government spending per capita over time across three broad spending categories across the different tiers of government Notes: Figure plots real aggregate spending per capita using data from HMRC for the years between 2000-2015. Aggregate totals are divided by total population from the National Office of Statistics and the annual CPI with 2015 being the base year. The four series account for – on average – account for 68% of government spending over the sample period.
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- Figure A3: Effect of Austerity on Local Area Gross Value Added per capita Notes: The dependent variable is the log value of the gross value added per working age adult in a local authority area between 2000 to 2015. The graph plots point estimates of the interaction between the overall simulated local authority area austerity incidence and a set of year fixed effects. All regression include local authority district fixed effects and NUTS1 region by year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the district level with 90% confidence bands indicated. Figure A4: Support for Leave in EU referendum by respondent’s political party preference Notes: The plot presents sample averages of Leave support in Wave 8 of the USOC survey by the respondents expressed political support for UKIP, the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
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- Figure C4: Non-parametric effect of socio-economic employment status of the resident population in 2001 on support for UKIP over time Panel A: Long term unemployed Panel B : Routine job Panel C: Semi-routine Panel D: Lower supervisory Panel E: Student Panel F: Lower management Panel G: Higher professional Panel H: Higher management Notes: The variable is the respective share of the resident population in a district that is in either socio-economic status classification as of 2001. The graph plots point estimates of the interaction between these cross sectional measures and a set of year fixed effects. All regression include local authority district fixed effects and NUTS1 region by year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the district level with 90% confidence bands indicated.
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- Figure C6: Non-parametric effect of socio-economic employment status of the resident population in 2001 on support for UKIP over time Panel A: Long term unemployed Panel B : Routine job Panel C: Semi-routine Panel D: Lower supervisory Panel E: Student Panel F: Lower management Panel G: Higher professional Panel H: Higher management Notes: The variable is the respective share of the resident population in a district that is in either socio-economic status classification as of 2001. The graph plots point estimates of the interaction between these cross sectional measures and a set of year fixed effects. All regression include local authority district fixed effects and NUTS1 region by year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the district level with 90% confidence bands indicated.
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- Figure C7: Non-parametric effect of the industry employment structure in 2001 on support for UKIP over time Panel A: Education Panel B: Real Estate Panel C: Retail Panel D: Transport Panel E: Construction Panel F: Manufacturing Panel G: Hotel & Accommodation Panel H: Health care Notes: The dependent variable is the percentage of votes for UKIP in local council elections. The independent variables are the respective shares of the resident working age population in a district that is working in any of the different sectors as of 2001 interacted with a set of year fixed effects. All regression include local authority district fixed effects and NUTS1 region by year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the district level with 90% confidence bands indicated.
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- I obtain very similar results when studying the performance of UKIP and the other parties in the European Parliamentary election of 2014 (relative to the earlier rounds) and the 2015 Westminster election (relative to the 2001, 2005 and 2010 elections). These results are presented in Appendix Tables C2 and C3.
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- I restrict the analysis to the two local election rounds in 2011 and 2012 and present the results in Table C4. The pattern is similar, but also suggests some distinct differences. We find the same positive link between weak socio-economic fundamentals and UKIP votes after 2010. It is statistically significant for two of the four indicators of weak socio-economic fundamentals: for the share of the resident population with low qualification and for the prevalence of retail employment.
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- It contains comprehensive data on local government elections since 1973. Since 1999, there have been several changes in local government structure, and these have been accounted for in constructing the panel.
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- Notes: The R-squared of a univariate cross-sectional regression of support for Leave and UKIP vote share in the 2014 elections is 75%, and the point estimate is a near straight line with an intercept of 15 percentage points, suggesting that UKIP EP vote share plus 15% does a reasonably good job predicting the EU referendum vote share for Leave.
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- On the timing Since the EU referendum was already announced in January 2013, it becomes interesting to see whether the link between weak socio-economic fundamentals and UKIP votes is already present in the data prior to the announcement, in particular up to the 2012 local council elections that were held in May 2012.
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- Panel A: Overall austerity shock Panel B: Council Tax Benefit Panel C: Disability living allow. Panel D: Bedroom Tax Notes: The dependent variable is the percentage of votes for UKIP in European Parliamentary elections of 2004, 2009 and 2014 at the district level. The graph plots point estimates of the interaction between the simulated incidence of the austerity measures and a set of year fixed effects with 2009 being the omitted year. All regression include district fixed effects and NUTS1 region by year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the district level with 90% confidence bands indicated.
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- Panel A: Overall austerity shock Panel B: Council Tax Benefit Panel C: Disability living allow. Panel D: Bedroom Tax Notes: The dependent variable is the percentage of votes for UKIP in Westminster elections across the 570 harmonized constituencies in the 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015 Westminster elections. The graph plots point estimates of the interaction between the simulated incidence of the austerity measures and a set of year fixed effects with 2010 as omitted year. All regression include constituency fixed effects and NUTS1 region by year fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the constituency level with 90% confidence bands indicated. Figure A2: Non-parametric effect of austerity on support for UKIP overall and by individual measures studying European elections.
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- There are some differences in the effects on other parties: while the Conservative party appears to be contracting in such areas, the Labour party, along with UKIP actually stands to gain. This suggests that prior to the EU referendum announcement, in local elections, a growing support for UKIP is associated with a worse performance for the Conservatives and a better performance for Labour in areas with weak fundamentals, suggesting that the perceived threat of UKIP, increasing the risk of a shift towards Labour may have been particularly strongly perceived in the run up to the January 2013 announcement.
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- There is no statistically discernible effect on turnout, suggesting that places with weak socio-economic fundamentals post 2010 saw no differential voter mobilization from which UKIP could have benefited. If anything, the point estimates are negative throughout.
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- This analysis suggests that the Conservative party, in local elections, was losing non-negligible numbers of voters to UKIP. This is not surprising, as Conservative councillors defected to UKIP quite regularly (Webb and Bale, 2014).
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