Transition away from fossil fuels toward renewables: lessons from Russia-Ukraine crisis

Page 1

S.E. Hosseini/Future Energy

May 2022| Volume 01 | Issue 01 | Pages 02-05

Perspective

Transition away from fossil fuels toward

renewables: lessons from Russia-Ukraine crisis

Seyed Ehsan Hosseini

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Arkansas Tech University, 1811 N Boulder Ave, Russellville, AR, 72801, USA

A R T I C L E I N F O

Article history:

Received 05 March 2022

Received in revised form

20 March 2022

Accepted 22 March 2022

Keywords:

Russia-Ukraine crisis, Energy policy, Electricity,

Renewable energy, Fossil fuel

Corresponding author

Email address: seyed.ehsan.hosseini@gmail.com

DOI: 10.55670/fpll.fuen.1.1.8

A B S T R A C T

The world’s progress towards net-zero ambitions will bring down fossil fuel

utilization and imports over time. However, crises such as COVID-19 and the

Russia-Ukraine conflict have raised questions about the reliability of non-

renewables and what actions could be taken by policymakers to immediately

mitigate reliance on fossil fuels for vulnerable importers. The responses to the

recent crises could reorient energy geopolitics by the decentralization of the

global energy system and speeding up renewables deployment. These superb

targets require a concerted and sustained energy policy effort across multiple

industries, alongside strong international communication on energy security.

Clear dialogue between governments, the green power generation industries,

and consumers is also a crucial element for successful renewable energy

implementation. The world’s energy crisis has unveiled that the transition to

renewable energy has been too slow, and serious efforts are required to speed

up the transition away from fossil fuels toward renewables.

1. Introduction

Since 2020, the economic consequences of COVID-19

have demonstrated an adverse impact on the development of

renewables. In early 2020, Hosseini [1] pointed out that in

post-COVID-19, when the economy is returned to its

trajectory, the governments should accelerate the

deployment of renewables before another worldwide

economic shock. Now, in 2022, the Russian-Ukraine crisis is a

new shock that could menace the energy security of the

world.

After the U.S, Russia is the world’s largest natural gas (NG)

and oil producer, providing 13% of oil and 17% of gas globally

in 2020. Approximately 40% of Europe’s gas is supplied by

Russia [2]. About one-third of European NG demand used for

electricity generation, industrial production, and winter

heating is supplied by Russia. Moreover, more than 25% of

the European Union (EU) crude oil import is from Russia,

making the EU more dependent on Russian fossil fuels. In

2021, the EU imported an average of over 380 million cubic

metres (mcm) per day of NG by pipeline from Russia, or about

140 billion cubic metres (bcm) for the year. Furthermore,

approximately 15 bcm was supplied in the form of liquefied

natural gas (LNG). Nevertheless, some EU states such as Spain

and Portugal use little Russian fossil fuels, while Germany, as

the largest European economy, provides more than 30% of its

crude oil and 50% of its NG demand from Russia. Although

most of the electricity demand in France is generated by

nuclear power, it still relies on Russian fossil fuels to prepare

its energy requirements. One of the main reasons for

increasing this dependence on Russian fossil fuels is

attributed to the plans that the EU made to phase out coal and

nuclear power plants [3]. In this context, a new Russian

pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany named “Nord

Stream 2” was completed in late 2021. Remaining highly

dependent on Russian gas and oil, a large-scale Russian

invasion of Ukraine has the potential for major disruptions to

the European energy market. Russia depends on revenue

from Europe, while Europe depends on Russian fossil fuels,

therefore Europe’s reliance means that imposing tougher

sanctions on Russia burdens a severe dent in its energy

supplies. Although the sanctions imposed on Russia did not

target its NG and crude oil, on March 2, Brent was trading

above $110 for the first time since 2014. In the short term, the

main challenge in the EU energy supply is what strategy

should be considered if Russia cuts off the EU natural gas

supply. The first and immediate reaction is re-operating coal

power plants, although its infrastructure has been gradually

decommissioned in recent years. Due to this anticipation,

Germany has kept its coal power plants on standby to be

ready for any unexpected scenario. However, if Germany

reverted to coal-fired power plants in any circumstances, it

would go against its promise to phase out coal-based power

generation by 2030. The other quick reaction to this scenario

is diverting more LNG ships from the US and Qatar [4].

Future Energy

Open Access Journal

https://doi.org/10.55670/fpll.fuen.1.1.8

May 2022| Volume 01 | Issue 01 | Pages 02-05

Journal homepage: https://fupubco.com/fuen

ISSN 2832-0328

Page 2

S.E. Hosseini/Future Energy

May 2022| Volume 01 | Issue 01 | Pages 02-05

On the other hand, by intensifying sanctions on Russia,

financial institutions will refuse financing Russian

transactions, opening letters of credit, or approving

payments, and consequently, the role of Russian NG and crude

oil on the world’s energy mix decreases. Nevertheless,

mitigating reliance on Russian fossil fuels is not simple for the

world (especially the EU), needing a concerted and sustained

policy across various sectors, alongside strong international

dialogue on energy markets and security. To decrease

reliance on Russian fossil fuels by over a third and support the

European green deal, the IEA announced 10-Point Plan to EU.

Based on the IEA’s 10-Point Plan, signing any new gas

contracts with Russia is suspended; and gas supply from

other sources is maximized. It is stipulated that the low

emission energy projects in nuclear energy and renewables

should be accelerated, and energy efficiency in homes and

businesses should be ramped up [5].

Besides these short-term policies, a firm decision or a

consensus about the world's future energy is required to

ensure the energy security of the EU and the world. The

European leaders have concluded that Russia’s invasion of

Ukraine is an opportunity to expedite the transition to

renewable energy and nuclear power generation. Germany is

aiming to accelerate the growth of its solar power generation

plus onshore/offshore wind projects. In other words, the

faster expansion of renewable energy is the key to mitigating

Germany's dependence on Russian oil and gas. Nuclear power

is another option on the table. Nuclear power generation

increased by 6% in 2021 compared to 2020 and became the

largest contributor to the EU electricity generation since

2014. However, the main issue with operating nuclear power

plants is that they are at the end of their operational lifetime

(approximately 40 years), and it is not affordable to rebuild

them. Hence, if the world really wants to ensure its energy

security, it must focus more on renewables, and it should be

done immediately.

2. Development of renewables to secure energy

Although the world wants to transition away from fossil

fuels toward renewable energy, the crucial issue is that non-

renewable energy is not going away anytime soon. In recent

years, the total amount of renewable energy has grown very

fast; however, the development of renewables is lower than

the increase in global energy demand overall. The transition

from fossil fuels occurs someday, but currently, renewables

are not keeping pace with increasing energy demand;

therefore, the non-renewable energy supply is still growing.

The cost of power generation using renewable technologies

has continued to fall year by year. Recently, solar photovoltaic

(PV) price has fallen by 7%, concentrating solar power (CSP)

by 16%, offshore and onshore wind by 9%, and 13%,

respectively. In the United States, the cost of 149 GW or 61%

of the total coal capacity is more than the new renewable

energy capacity. Retiring these coal power plants with

renewables would cut expenses by USD 5.6 billion annually

and save 332 million tonnes of CO2, decreasing emissions

from coal in the United States by 33%. Globally, more than

800 GW of existing coal power generation costs more than

new onshore wind or solar PV projects commissioned in

2021. Replacing these plants would decrease power

generation costs by USD 32.3 billion per year and avoid about

three gigatonnes of CO2 per annum, corresponding to 9% of

global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 or 20% of the

emissions mitigation required by 2030 for a 1.5°C climate

pathway outlined in International Renewable Energy Agency

(IRENA) [6]. The global renewable energy generation will

grow by 35 gigawatts from 2021 to 2022, but global power

demand will increase to 100 gigawatts over the same period

[7]. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2022,

global electricity demand will be rebound by 4% while the

amount of renewable-based electricity generation increases

more than 6%. However, despite this rapid growth,

renewable energy is expected to serve only half of the growth

in global electricity supply in the same year. The main issue is

that the governments do not invest enough to fulfill the future

energy needs. Transition to green energy is picking up;

however, it is not adequately fast to meet increasing demands

for energy in a sustainable manner [8].

In terms of energy, all energy importers do their best not

to be vulnerable to potential disruptions from one energy

supplier. They need to diversify their energy supplier to end

their dependency on one country and build up their

renewable energy capacity. In 2021, Europe installed 17 GW

(11 GW in the EU-27) of new windmills (81% were onshore

wind), which is not even 50% of what the EU should be

installed to be on track to deliver its 2030 energy and climate

goals. Sweden, Germany, and Turkey established the most

onshore wind while the UK had the newest offshore wind

installations. Europe now has 236 GW of wind capacity.

Although EU countries have ambitious national goals for the

expansion of windmills, permitting has become a crucial

bottleneck. Europe does not issue the permit for the volumes

of new wind farms required, and almost none of the Member

States meets the deadlines for permitting procedures needed

in the EU Renewable Energy Directive. The main issue is that

the permitting authorities are not always adequately staffed,

and the permitting procedures and rules are complex [9].

In 2020, despite the severe influences of the COVID-19

globally, the year still met 138.2 GW of solar installed, which

was 18% growth compared to 2019. This enhanced the

world's cumulative solar capacity to 773.2 GW, a 22% growth.

By increasing the vaccination rates, the solar market has been

retrieved, and the silicon supply issue has been solved. Hence,

the coming years are supposed to be very strong for solar

energy worldwide. In 2022, it is expected that the global solar

market will grow by 25% to 203 GW. This will be the first time

annual PV installations will cross the 200 GW level, which was

previously anticipated to be accomplished in 2024. With this

growth rate, reaching 2 TW of global solar power generation

in 2025 is achievable. With the right frameworks in place,

Europe can reach 1 TW of solar capacity. To become

independent from importing fossil fuels, the EU aims to

deploy solar power over 30GW, involving 1.5 million solar

rooftops, by the end of 2022. In response to the Russia-

Ukraine crisis, the European Commission has decided to pave

the way for smart solar and hybrid projects to expedite the

deployment of EU solar PV manufacturing capacity [10].

The Russian-Ukraine crisis made European Commission

accelerate the development of the rooftop solar power

generation systems and increase it by 15 terawatt-hours this

year to save 2.5 bcm of gas. The plan is that by the end of 2022,

almost 25% of Europe’s current energy generation comes

from solar energy [11]. Part of the plan would speed up

permitting green energy procedures for on and offshore wind

capacity. Tripling the capacity of wind and solar power

Page 3

S.E. Hosseini/Future Energy

May 2022| Volume 01 | Issue 01 | Pages 02-05

generation by 2030, adding 480GW of wind and 420GW of

solar energy could save 170 bcm a year. Furthermore, the

installation of 10 million heat pumps over the next five years

could decrease the amount of gas burned to heat buildings

[12]. The EU plans to accelerate its “Fit for 55” rule, bringing

forward the timetable to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) by

55% from 2035 to 2030. Fit for 55 involves the roll-out of a

massive campaign of expansion of renewables and electricity

storage, electrification, the development of renewable

hydrogen technology, and investment in wide-ranging energy

efficiency measures. Under “Fit for 55” plan, total EU gas

consumption is anticipated to fall 23% [13]. The EU aims to

generate 50% of its electricity demand by wind energy by

2050, which means expanding offshore wind from 16 GW to

300 GW and onshore wind from 173 GW today to 1,000 GW.

The recent crisis has indicated that more than ever, the EU

needs to tap into its wind energy resources. Speeding up the

development of wind power is essential to obtaining energy

security [9].

Geothermal is another renewable source of energy that

can be harvested anywhere on Earth. Theoretically, just 0.1%

of the Earth’s energy can provide all human power

requirements for 20 million years. Compared to solar and

wind energy, geothermal energy has a minimal footprint

above ground because most actions happen underground. Up

to 12.5% of Europe’s power can be supplied by geothermal

sources, and based on the European Commission report,

approximately 25% of the European population can cost-

effectively deploy geothermal heating [14]. Tidal power [15]

and hydropower [16] are other green sources of energy that

have been attracted more attention after the Russian-Ukraine

crisis.

Biofuels, including ubiquitous biogas (from anaerobic

fermentation), liquid biofuels (bio-jet kerosene, biodiesel,

biogasoline,…), and solid biofuels (fuelwood, wood residues,

wood pellets, animal waste, vegetal material, ...) are the

serious candidates for the substitution of a part of fossil fuels.

The EU countries use various feedstock to produce biogas.

Manure, field crops, agri-food industry waste represent about

75% of the feedstock used for biogas production, a share that

has tripled since 2010. Landfills and sewage sludge represent

the last 25%. The Europe biogas market size grew from USD

1.67 billion in 2020 to USD 1.87 billion in 2021 and it is

projected to meet USD 3.4 billion in 2028 [17]. Due to the

recent crisis, the EU Commission has called for a huge ramp-

up in biogas to minimize reliance on NG from whatever

source. The European Commission has doubled the bloc’s

production of biomethane made from waste by 2030 to reach

35 bcm per year to bolster the bloc against a looming fossil

fuel crisis, according to a new world’s conditions. By 2050,

this potential can be tripled, growing well over 100 bcm and

supplying 30-50% of the future EU gas demand [13]. The

European liquid biofuel industry is categorized into two

distinct sectors, biodiesel and bioethanol, with various

feedstocks to produce fuel. Rapeseed oil was the most

common feedstock for biodiesel production (accounting for

44%in 2017); however, its portion is reducing significantly

due to the deployment of using palm oil, recycled vegetable

oil, and used cooking oil (UCO). Bioethanol is mainly

produced from grains and sugar beet derivatives in the EU.

Wheat is employed in north-western Europe, while corn is

predominantly favored in Spain and Central Europe. In

Europe, the largest share of solid wood is dedicated to the

residential sector (27%), followed by the industrial

application of wood chips in installations above 1 megawatt

(22%) and the small-scale utilization of woodchips at 14%.

Also, using pellets in modern appliances is developing fast,

representing 6% of the EU's total wood energy consumption

[18].

One problem with renewable energy which has been

raised by some energy policymakers, is that renewables are

at the mercy of the weather. It is claimed that if the solar,

wind, or water required for solar panels, wind farms, and

hydro reservoirs is not provided based on the initial plans, the

renewable energy missed its functionality. Therefore,

counting on renewables as a sole energy source is not

recommended, and considering a reliable energy supply such

as NG as a backup for renewables is proposed [7].

On the other hand, hydrogen fuel is a promising energy

carrier that could be substituted for NG in the future,

supplying the world’s energy demand and mitigating

greenhouse gases. The energy yield of hydrogen fuel is

around 122 KJ/g which is 2.75 times bigger than

hydrocarbons. The capabilities of hydrogen fuel in

transportation, whether in the fuel cell engines (FCE) or

internal combustion engines (ICE) have been attracted more

attention in recent years. The development of hydrogen-

powered vehicles decreases dependence on fossil fuels and

reduces tailpipe emissions. Hydrogen can be produced from

various primary energy sources such as non-renewable (coal,

oil, natural gas,…) and renewables (biomass, solar, wind,…)

via different production technologies that make hydrogen an

attractive fuel for energy policymakers [19]. The grey

hydrogen (hydrogen from NG without carbon capture and

sequestration (CCS)) is cheaper than the blue hydrogen

(hydrogen from NG with CCS) and green hydrogen (hydrogen

from renewables). The grey and blue hydrogen production

depend on the availability of NG, and their prices are impacted

by NG price. As one of the main producers of NG, Russia aimed

to supply 20% of the world’s hydrogen market by 2030 [20].

However, after the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the sanctions

against Russia, this target is under question. Hence, the

“Hydrogen Accelerator” program has been developed by the

European Commission to encourage more storage, port, and

transport infrastructure for hydrogen fuel. In this program,

additional 15 million tons of green hydrogen will be available

by 2030 on top of the 5 million tons already planned. On the

other hand, Australia has the capability to become one of the

main producers of green hydrogen due to its huge potential

for renewable energy. The Australian hydrogen fuel industry

stepped up a notch with its collaboration with the German

government. The two countries have decided to work

together to minimize the cost of producing green hydrogen

and speed up the innovation process in both countries. In

addition to Germany, the Australian government has signed

hydrogen fuel agreements with the UK, Japan, South Korea,

and Singapore. International partnerships play a crucial role

in opening new market opportunities for renewable

hydrogen production and helping the world to ensure its

energy security and achieve net-zero emissions [21].

Page 4

S.E. Hosseini/Future Energy

May 2022| Volume 01 | Issue 01 | Pages 02-05

3. Conclusion

Despite all development in renewables, the amount of

generated renewable power is still not adequate to fulfill the

increasing energy demands. The Russian invasion of Ukraine

has exposed that the dependence on non-renewable energy is

insecure and economically damaging. The vulnerabilities

should be addressed, and a ramp-up in domestic renewable

energy should be triggered. Achieving net-zero emissions by

2050, based on the Paris Agreement, would require an

acceleration in green energy transition-related investments.

Non-renewables may dominate the energy markets today;

however, the future of energy is renewable. The governments

can make that future reality sooner by increasing investment

in renewables and establishing incentive programs to

encourage individuals and corporations to adopt, implement,

upgrade, and demonstrate meaningful use of renewable

energy.

Ethical issue

The author is aware of and complies with best practices in

publication ethics, specifically with regard to authorship

(avoidance of guest authorship), dual submission,

manipulation of figures, competing interests, and compliance

with policies on research ethics. The author adheres to

publication requirements that submitted work is original and

has not been published elsewhere in any language.

Data availability statement

Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets

were generated or analyzed during the current study.

Conflict of interest

The author declares no potential conflict of interest.

References

[1]

Hosseini SE. An outlook on the global development

of renewable and sustainable energy at the time of

COVID-19. Energy Res Soc Sci 2020;68:101633.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101633.

[2]

Russian gas exports to Europe affect responses to

the Ukraine invasion : NPR n.d.

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/09/1079338002/r

ussia-ukraine-europe-gas-nordstream2-energy

(accessed March 7, 2022).

[3]

Russia’s Energy Role in Europe: What’s at Stake

With the Ukraine Crisis | Council on Foreign

Relations n.d. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/russias-

energy-role-europe-whats-stake-ukraine-crisis

(accessed March 4, 2022).

[4]

Will Europe have to return to coal if Russia cuts off

gas imports? | Euronews n.d.

https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/03/07/e

urope-scrambles-to-keep-the-lights-on-as-it-

sidelines-russian-gas (accessed March 7, 2022).

[5]

How Europe can cut natural gas imports from Russia

significantly within a year - News - IEA n.d.

https://www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-

natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-

within-a-year (accessed March 7, 2022).

[6]

Majority of New Renewables Undercut Cheapest

Fossil Fuel on Cost n.d.

https://www.irena.org/newsroom/pressreleases/2

021/Jun/Majority-of-New-Renewables-Undercut-

Cheapest-Fossil-Fuel-on-Cost (accessed March 6,

2022).

[7]

Gap between renewable energy and power demand:

oil, gas, coal needed n.d.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/04/gap-between-

renewable-energy-and-power-demand-oil-gas-

coal.html (accessed February 27, 2022).

[8]

Electricity Market Report - July 2021 – Analysis - IEA

n.d. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-

market-report-july-2021 (accessed March 2, 2022).

[9]

WindEurope - the voice of the wind energy industry

n.d. https://windeurope.org/ (accessed March 12,

2022).

[10] Home - SolarPower Europe n.d.

https://www.solarpowereurope.org/ (accessed

March 13, 2022).

[11] Scientific American: Science News, Expert Analysis,

Health Research - Scientific American n.d.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/ (accessed

March 12, 2022).

[12] Homepage | Energy Intelligence n.d.

https://www.energyintel.com/ (accessed March 11,

2022).

[13] EURACTIV.com – EURACTIV is your one-stop-shop

for in-depth news about policies and politics from

EU institutions and national capitals. n.d.

https://www.euractiv.com/ (accessed March 11,

2022).

[14] SET-Plan-Deep Geothermal IWG Implementation

Plan n.d.

https://setis.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2021-

04/Implementation plan on deep geothermal

energy.pdf (accessed March 13, 2022).

[15] Severn Estuary: Britain resurfaces huge tidal energy

plan amid Ukraine crisis n.d.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/11/severn-

estuary-britain-resurfaces-huge-tidal-energy-plan-

amid-ukraine-crisis.html (accessed March 13, 2022).

[16] IEA – International Energy Agency n.d.

https://www.iea.org/ (accessed March 12, 2022).

[17] Send Press Releases with GlobeNewswire n.d.

https://www.globenewswire.com/ (accessed March

13, 2022).

[18] Home - Bioenergy Europe n.d.

https://bioenergyeurope.org/ (accessed March 13,

2022).

[19] Hosseini SE, Wahid MA. Hydrogen production from

renewable and sustainable energy resources:

Promising green energy carrier for clean

development. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2016;57.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.12.112.

[20] Insight from Moscow: Russia aiming to take major

role in global hydrogen markets | S&P Global

Commodity Insights n.d.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-

insights/en/market-insights/blogs/natural-

gas/012022-russia-hydrogen-gas-reserves

(accessed March 11, 2022).

[21] Australian-German hydrogen program opens for

business - Australian Renewable Energy Agency n.d.

https://arena.gov.au/blog/australian-german-

hydrogen-program-opens-for-business/ (accessed

March 11, 2022).

This article is an open-access article

distributed under the terms and conditions of the

Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license

(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).