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Transition away from fossil fuels toward renewables: lessons from Russia-Ukraine crisis
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S.E. Hosseini/Future Energy
May 2022| Volume 01 | Issue 01 | Pages 02-05
2
Perspective
Transition away from fossil fuels toward
renewables: lessons from Russia-Ukraine crisis
Seyed Ehsan Hosseini
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Arkansas Tech University, 1811 N Boulder Ave, Russellville, AR, 72801, USA
A R T I C L E I N F O
Article history:
Received 05 March 2022
Received in revised form
20 March 2022
Accepted 22 March 2022
Keywords:
Russia-Ukraine crisis, Energy policy, Electricity,
Renewable energy, Fossil fuel
Corresponding author
Email address: seyed.ehsan.hosseini@gmail.com
DOI: 10.55670/fpll.fuen.1.1.8
A B S T R A C T
The world’s progress towards net-zero ambitions will bring down fossil fuel
utilization and imports over time. However, crises such as COVID-19 and the
Russia-Ukraine conflict have raised questions about the reliability of non-
renewables and what actions could be taken by policymakers to immediately
mitigate reliance on fossil fuels for vulnerable importers. The responses to the
recent crises could reorient energy geopolitics by the decentralization of the
global energy system and speeding up renewables deployment. These superb
targets require a concerted and sustained energy policy effort across multiple
industries, alongside strong international communication on energy security.
Clear dialogue between governments, the green power generation industries,
and consumers is also a crucial element for successful renewable energy
implementation. The world’s energy crisis has unveiled that the transition to
renewable energy has been too slow, and serious efforts are required to speed
up the transition away from fossil fuels toward renewables.
1. Introduction
Since 2020, the economic consequences of COVID-19
have demonstrated an adverse impact on the development of
renewables. In early 2020, Hosseini [1] pointed out that in
post-COVID-19, when the economy is returned to its
trajectory, the governments should accelerate the
deployment of renewables before another worldwide
economic shock. Now, in 2022, the Russian-Ukraine crisis is a
new shock that could menace the energy security of the
world.
After the U.S, Russia is the world’s largest natural gas (NG)
and oil producer, providing 13% of oil and 17% of gas globally
in 2020. Approximately 40% of Europe’s gas is supplied by
Russia [2]. About one-third of European NG demand used for
electricity generation, industrial production, and winter
heating is supplied by Russia. Moreover, more than 25% of
the European Union (EU) crude oil import is from Russia,
making the EU more dependent on Russian fossil fuels. In
2021, the EU imported an average of over 380 million cubic
metres (mcm) per day of NG by pipeline from Russia, or about
140 billion cubic metres (bcm) for the year. Furthermore,
approximately 15 bcm was supplied in the form of liquefied
natural gas (LNG). Nevertheless, some EU states such as Spain
and Portugal use little Russian fossil fuels, while Germany, as
the largest European economy, provides more than 30% of its
crude oil and 50% of its NG demand from Russia. Although
most of the electricity demand in France is generated by
nuclear power, it still relies on Russian fossil fuels to prepare
its energy requirements. One of the main reasons for
increasing this dependence on Russian fossil fuels is
attributed to the plans that the EU made to phase out coal and
nuclear power plants [3]. In this context, a new Russian
pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany named “Nord
Stream 2” was completed in late 2021. Remaining highly
dependent on Russian gas and oil, a large-scale Russian
invasion of Ukraine has the potential for major disruptions to
the European energy market. Russia depends on revenue
from Europe, while Europe depends on Russian fossil fuels,
therefore Europe’s reliance means that imposing tougher
sanctions on Russia burdens a severe dent in its energy
supplies. Although the sanctions imposed on Russia did not
target its NG and crude oil, on March 2, Brent was trading
above $110 for the first time since 2014. In the short term, the
main challenge in the EU energy supply is what strategy
should be considered if Russia cuts off the EU natural gas
supply. The first and immediate reaction is re-operating coal
power plants, although its infrastructure has been gradually
decommissioned in recent years. Due to this anticipation,
Germany has kept its coal power plants on standby to be
ready for any unexpected scenario. However, if Germany
reverted to coal-fired power plants in any circumstances, it
would go against its promise to phase out coal-based power
generation by 2030. The other quick reaction to this scenario
is diverting more LNG ships from the US and Qatar [4].
Future Energy
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S.E. Hosseini/Future Energy
May 2022| Volume 01 | Issue 01 | Pages 02-05
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On the other hand, by intensifying sanctions on Russia,
financial institutions will refuse financing Russian
transactions, opening letters of credit, or approving
payments, and consequently, the role of Russian NG and crude
oil on the world’s energy mix decreases. Nevertheless,
mitigating reliance on Russian fossil fuels is not simple for the
world (especially the EU), needing a concerted and sustained
policy across various sectors, alongside strong international
dialogue on energy markets and security. To decrease
reliance on Russian fossil fuels by over a third and support the
European green deal, the IEA announced 10-Point Plan to EU.
Based on the IEA’s 10-Point Plan, signing any new gas
contracts with Russia is suspended; and gas supply from
other sources is maximized. It is stipulated that the low
emission energy projects in nuclear energy and renewables
should be accelerated, and energy efficiency in homes and
businesses should be ramped up [5].
Besides these short-term policies, a firm decision or a
consensus about the world's future energy is required to
ensure the energy security of the EU and the world. The
European leaders have concluded that Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine is an opportunity to expedite the transition to
renewable energy and nuclear power generation. Germany is
aiming to accelerate the growth of its solar power generation
plus onshore/offshore wind projects. In other words, the
faster expansion of renewable energy is the key to mitigating
Germany's dependence on Russian oil and gas. Nuclear power
is another option on the table. Nuclear power generation
increased by 6% in 2021 compared to 2020 and became the
largest contributor to the EU electricity generation since
2014. However, the main issue with operating nuclear power
plants is that they are at the end of their operational lifetime
(approximately 40 years), and it is not affordable to rebuild
them. Hence, if the world really wants to ensure its energy
security, it must focus more on renewables, and it should be
done immediately.
2. Development of renewables to secure energy
Although the world wants to transition away from fossil
fuels toward renewable energy, the crucial issue is that non-
renewable energy is not going away anytime soon. In recent
years, the total amount of renewable energy has grown very
fast; however, the development of renewables is lower than
the increase in global energy demand overall. The transition
from fossil fuels occurs someday, but currently, renewables
are not keeping pace with increasing energy demand;
therefore, the non-renewable energy supply is still growing.
The cost of power generation using renewable technologies
has continued to fall year by year. Recently, solar photovoltaic
(PV) price has fallen by 7%, concentrating solar power (CSP)
by 16%, offshore and onshore wind by 9%, and 13%,
respectively. In the United States, the cost of 149 GW or 61%
of the total coal capacity is more than the new renewable
energy capacity. Retiring these coal power plants with
renewables would cut expenses by USD 5.6 billion annually
and save 332 million tonnes of CO2, decreasing emissions
from coal in the United States by 33%. Globally, more than
800 GW of existing coal power generation costs more than
new onshore wind or solar PV projects commissioned in
2021. Replacing these plants would decrease power
generation costs by USD 32.3 billion per year and avoid about
three gigatonnes of CO2 per annum, corresponding to 9% of
global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 or 20% of the
emissions mitigation required by 2030 for a 1.5°C climate
pathway outlined in International Renewable Energy Agency
(IRENA) [6]. The global renewable energy generation will
grow by 35 gigawatts from 2021 to 2022, but global power
demand will increase to 100 gigawatts over the same period
[7]. According to International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2022,
global electricity demand will be rebound by 4% while the
amount of renewable-based electricity generation increases
more than 6%. However, despite this rapid growth,
renewable energy is expected to serve only half of the growth
in global electricity supply in the same year. The main issue is
that the governments do not invest enough to fulfill the future
energy needs. Transition to green energy is picking up;
however, it is not adequately fast to meet increasing demands
for energy in a sustainable manner [8].
In terms of energy, all energy importers do their best not
to be vulnerable to potential disruptions from one energy
supplier. They need to diversify their energy supplier to end
their dependency on one country and build up their
renewable energy capacity. In 2021, Europe installed 17 GW
(11 GW in the EU-27) of new windmills (81% were onshore
wind), which is not even 50% of what the EU should be
installed to be on track to deliver its 2030 energy and climate
goals. Sweden, Germany, and Turkey established the most
onshore wind while the UK had the newest offshore wind
installations. Europe now has 236 GW of wind capacity.
Although EU countries have ambitious national goals for the
expansion of windmills, permitting has become a crucial
bottleneck. Europe does not issue the permit for the volumes
of new wind farms required, and almost none of the Member
States meets the deadlines for permitting procedures needed
in the EU Renewable Energy Directive. The main issue is that
the permitting authorities are not always adequately staffed,
and the permitting procedures and rules are complex [9].
In 2020, despite the severe influences of the COVID-19
globally, the year still met 138.2 GW of solar installed, which
was 18% growth compared to 2019. This enhanced the
world's cumulative solar capacity to 773.2 GW, a 22% growth.
By increasing the vaccination rates, the solar market has been
retrieved, and the silicon supply issue has been solved. Hence,
the coming years are supposed to be very strong for solar
energy worldwide. In 2022, it is expected that the global solar
market will grow by 25% to 203 GW. This will be the first time
annual PV installations will cross the 200 GW level, which was
previously anticipated to be accomplished in 2024. With this
growth rate, reaching 2 TW of global solar power generation
in 2025 is achievable. With the right frameworks in place,
Europe can reach 1 TW of solar capacity. To become
independent from importing fossil fuels, the EU aims to
deploy solar power over 30GW, involving 1.5 million solar
rooftops, by the end of 2022. In response to the Russia-
Ukraine crisis, the European Commission has decided to pave
the way for smart solar and hybrid projects to expedite the
deployment of EU solar PV manufacturing capacity [10].
The Russian-Ukraine crisis made European Commission
accelerate the development of the rooftop solar power
generation systems and increase it by 15 terawatt-hours this
year to save 2.5 bcm of gas. The plan is that by the end of 2022,
almost 25% of Europe’s current energy generation comes
from solar energy [11]. Part of the plan would speed up
permitting green energy procedures for on and offshore wind
capacity. Tripling the capacity of wind and solar power

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May 2022| Volume 01 | Issue 01 | Pages 02-05
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generation by 2030, adding 480GW of wind and 420GW of
solar energy could save 170 bcm a year. Furthermore, the
installation of 10 million heat pumps over the next five years
could decrease the amount of gas burned to heat buildings
[12]. The EU plans to accelerate its “Fit for 55” rule, bringing
forward the timetable to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) by
55% from 2035 to 2030. Fit for 55 involves the roll-out of a
massive campaign of expansion of renewables and electricity
storage, electrification, the development of renewable
hydrogen technology, and investment in wide-ranging energy
efficiency measures. Under “Fit for 55” plan, total EU gas
consumption is anticipated to fall 23% [13]. The EU aims to
generate 50% of its electricity demand by wind energy by
2050, which means expanding offshore wind from 16 GW to
300 GW and onshore wind from 173 GW today to 1,000 GW.
The recent crisis has indicated that more than ever, the EU
needs to tap into its wind energy resources. Speeding up the
development of wind power is essential to obtaining energy
security [9].
Geothermal is another renewable source of energy that
can be harvested anywhere on Earth. Theoretically, just 0.1%
of the Earth’s energy can provide all human power
requirements for 20 million years. Compared to solar and
wind energy, geothermal energy has a minimal footprint
above ground because most actions happen underground. Up
to 12.5% of Europe’s power can be supplied by geothermal
sources, and based on the European Commission report,
approximately 25% of the European population can cost-
effectively deploy geothermal heating [14]. Tidal power [15]
and hydropower [16] are other green sources of energy that
have been attracted more attention after the Russian-Ukraine
crisis.
Biofuels, including ubiquitous biogas (from anaerobic
fermentation), liquid biofuels (bio-jet kerosene, biodiesel,
biogasoline,…), and solid biofuels (fuelwood, wood residues,
wood pellets, animal waste, vegetal material, ...) are the
serious candidates for the substitution of a part of fossil fuels.
The EU countries use various feedstock to produce biogas.
Manure, field crops, agri-food industry waste represent about
75% of the feedstock used for biogas production, a share that
has tripled since 2010. Landfills and sewage sludge represent
the last 25%. The Europe biogas market size grew from USD
1.67 billion in 2020 to USD 1.87 billion in 2021 and it is
projected to meet USD 3.4 billion in 2028 [17]. Due to the
recent crisis, the EU Commission has called for a huge ramp-
up in biogas to minimize reliance on NG from whatever
source. The European Commission has doubled the bloc’s
production of biomethane made from waste by 2030 to reach
35 bcm per year to bolster the bloc against a looming fossil
fuel crisis, according to a new world’s conditions. By 2050,
this potential can be tripled, growing well over 100 bcm and
supplying 30-50% of the future EU gas demand [13]. The
European liquid biofuel industry is categorized into two
distinct sectors, biodiesel and bioethanol, with various
feedstocks to produce fuel. Rapeseed oil was the most
common feedstock for biodiesel production (accounting for
44%in 2017); however, its portion is reducing significantly
due to the deployment of using palm oil, recycled vegetable
oil, and used cooking oil (UCO). Bioethanol is mainly
produced from grains and sugar beet derivatives in the EU.
Wheat is employed in north-western Europe, while corn is
predominantly favored in Spain and Central Europe. In
Europe, the largest share of solid wood is dedicated to the
residential sector (27%), followed by the industrial
application of wood chips in installations above 1 megawatt
(22%) and the small-scale utilization of woodchips at 14%.
Also, using pellets in modern appliances is developing fast,
representing 6% of the EU's total wood energy consumption
[18].
One problem with renewable energy which has been
raised by some energy policymakers, is that renewables are
at the mercy of the weather. It is claimed that if the solar,
wind, or water required for solar panels, wind farms, and
hydro reservoirs is not provided based on the initial plans, the
renewable energy missed its functionality. Therefore,
counting on renewables as a sole energy source is not
recommended, and considering a reliable energy supply such
as NG as a backup for renewables is proposed [7].
On the other hand, hydrogen fuel is a promising energy
carrier that could be substituted for NG in the future,
supplying the world’s energy demand and mitigating
greenhouse gases. The energy yield of hydrogen fuel is
around 122 KJ/g which is 2.75 times bigger than
hydrocarbons. The capabilities of hydrogen fuel in
transportation, whether in the fuel cell engines (FCE) or
internal combustion engines (ICE) have been attracted more
attention in recent years. The development of hydrogen-
powered vehicles decreases dependence on fossil fuels and
reduces tailpipe emissions. Hydrogen can be produced from
various primary energy sources such as non-renewable (coal,
oil, natural gas,…) and renewables (biomass, solar, wind,…)
via different production technologies that make hydrogen an
attractive fuel for energy policymakers [19]. The grey
hydrogen (hydrogen from NG without carbon capture and
sequestration (CCS)) is cheaper than the blue hydrogen
(hydrogen from NG with CCS) and green hydrogen (hydrogen
from renewables). The grey and blue hydrogen production
depend on the availability of NG, and their prices are impacted
by NG price. As one of the main producers of NG, Russia aimed
to supply 20% of the world’s hydrogen market by 2030 [20].
However, after the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the sanctions
against Russia, this target is under question. Hence, the
“Hydrogen Accelerator” program has been developed by the
European Commission to encourage more storage, port, and
transport infrastructure for hydrogen fuel. In this program,
additional 15 million tons of green hydrogen will be available
by 2030 on top of the 5 million tons already planned. On the
other hand, Australia has the capability to become one of the
main producers of green hydrogen due to its huge potential
for renewable energy. The Australian hydrogen fuel industry
stepped up a notch with its collaboration with the German
government. The two countries have decided to work
together to minimize the cost of producing green hydrogen
and speed up the innovation process in both countries. In
addition to Germany, the Australian government has signed
hydrogen fuel agreements with the UK, Japan, South Korea,
and Singapore. International partnerships play a crucial role
in opening new market opportunities for renewable
hydrogen production and helping the world to ensure its
energy security and achieve net-zero emissions [21].

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3. Conclusion
Despite all development in renewables, the amount of
generated renewable power is still not adequate to fulfill the
increasing energy demands. The Russian invasion of Ukraine
has exposed that the dependence on non-renewable energy is
insecure and economically damaging. The vulnerabilities
should be addressed, and a ramp-up in domestic renewable
energy should be triggered. Achieving net-zero emissions by
2050, based on the Paris Agreement, would require an
acceleration in green energy transition-related investments.
Non-renewables may dominate the energy markets today;
however, the future of energy is renewable. The governments
can make that future reality sooner by increasing investment
in renewables and establishing incentive programs to
encourage individuals and corporations to adopt, implement,
upgrade, and demonstrate meaningful use of renewable
energy.
Ethical issue
The author is aware of and complies with best practices in
publication ethics, specifically with regard to authorship
(avoidance of guest authorship), dual submission,
manipulation of figures, competing interests, and compliance
with policies on research ethics. The author adheres to
publication requirements that submitted work is original and
has not been published elsewhere in any language.
Data availability statement
Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets
were generated or analyzed during the current study.
Conflict of interest
The author declares no potential conflict of interest.
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