Design routability is a major concern in the ASIC design flow, particularly with todays increasingly aggressive process technology nodes. Increased die areas, cell densities, routing layers, and net count all contribute to complex interconnect requirements, which can significantly deteriorate performance, and sometimes lead to unroutable solutions. Congestion analysis and optimization must be performed early in the design cycle to improve routability. This paper presents a congestion estimation algorithm for a placed netlist. We propose a net-based stochastic model for computing expected horizontal and vertical track usage, which considers routing blockages. The main advantages of this algorithm are accuracy and fast runtime. We show that the congestion estimated by this algorithm correlates well with post-route congestion, and show experimental results of subsequent congestion optimization based this algorithm.