Graphical models of applicants for credit

DJ Hand, KJ McConway… - IMA Journal of …, 1997 - academic.oup.com
IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 1997academic.oup.com
Graphical models are a class of statistical tools which have recently undergone extensive
theoretical development. Theyallow one to build models representing the relationships
between large numbers of variables, helping to identify paths by which different variables
are influenced by others. They look particularly promising for credit-scoring and credit-
controlproblems, since they allow the construction of a holistic applicant model. They can be
used in an investigative way, displaying the major influences between variables, or …
Abstract
Graphical models are a class of statistical tools which have recently undergone extensive theoretical development. Theyallow one to build models representing the relationships between large numbers of variables, helping to identify paths by which different variables are influenced by others. They look particularly promising for credit-scoring and credit-controlproblems, since they allow the construction of a holistic applicant model. They can be used in an investigative way, displaying the major influences between variables, or dynamically, allowing statistical prediction of the likely behaviour of individual applicants. They can also be used ‘in reverse’ to identify the characteristics of individuals demonstrating certain kinds of behaviour. This paper describes an initial investigation into the value of graphical models for bank loans. In particular, we describe the graphical models we constructed for a large set of unsecured personal loan data, and we draw some general conclusions.
Oxford University Press