Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Harris Ahead In 2 Key Battleground States, 3rd State Up For Grabs, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Democrats Have Leads In All 3 States
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PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 51%, Trump 45%, Stein 1%, Oliver 1%
MICHIGAN: Harris 50%, Trump 45%, Stein 2%
WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%, Stein 1%
One week after the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the 2024 presidential race in three critical battleground states shows Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania, holding a slight lead in Michigan, and the two candidates essentially tied in Wisconsin, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the states released today.
HARRIS VS. TRUMP: THE ISSUES
The race is competitive on most issues. Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling five issues...
The economy:
- PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
- MI: 50 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
- WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.
Immigration:
- PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
- MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
- WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.
Preserving democracy in the United States:
- PA: 45 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
- MI: 45 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
- WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris.
Abortion:
- PA: 38 percent say Trump, while 57 percent say Harris;
- MI: 42 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris;
- WI: 40 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.
A crisis that put the country at great risk:
- PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
- MI: 47 percent say Trump, while 51 percent say Harris;
- WI: 48 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris.
"Three crucial swing states wave a red flag at the Trump campaign. The GOP's most 'go to' attack strategies against Democrats on immigration and the economy may be losing momentum. Likely voters now see little daylight, in most cases, between Harris and Trump on who can best handle those key issues," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
PENNSYLVANIA: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Pennsylvania, viewed as a must-win state in the path to the White House, Harris receives 51 percent support among likely voters, Trump receives 45 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receive 1 percent support. This compares to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania on August 14 when Harris received 48 percent support and Trump received 45 percent support.
Democrats 95 - 4 percent back Harris, while Republicans 91 - 7 percent back Trump. Among independents, 48 percent back Harris, while 43 percent back Trump.
In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris has a slight lead over Trump 51 - 46 percent. In August, Harris received 50 percent support and Trump received 47 percent support.
PENNSYLVANIA: ENTHUSIASM
Seventy percent of likely voters supporting Harris say they are very enthusiastic about supporting her, compared to 66 percent in August.
Seventy-three percent of likely voters supporting Trump say they are very enthusiastic about supporting him, compared to 70 percent in August.
PENNSYLVANIA: FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Forty-eight percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her, compared to August when 46 percent had a favorable opinion of her and 48 percent had an unfavorable opinion of her.
Forty-four percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 53 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, unchanged from August.
"Favorability, that catch-all for what voters think about candidates from policy to personality to promise, tips Harris' way since we last polled Pennsylvanians. A post-debate shift, though small, suggests voters are warming up to her," added Malloy.
PENNSYLVANIA: U.S. SENATE RACE
Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey leads Republican challenger David McCormick 52 - 43 percent, essentially unchanged from August.
In today's poll, Democrats (96 - 3 percent) and independents (51 - 41 percent) back Casey, while Republicans (89 - 7 percent) back McCormick.
MICHIGAN: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Michigan, Harris receives 50 percent support among likely voters, Trump receives 45 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support. All other listed third-party candidates receive less than 1 percent support.
Democrats 98 percent back Harris, while Republicans 94 - 5 percent back Trump. Among independents, 47 percent back Harris, while 44 percent back Trump.
In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris receives 51 percent support and Trump receives 46 percent support.
"With a gender gap as wide as Lake Michigan, Harris leads Trump by about 20 percentage points among women and Trump leads Harris among men by half that," added Malloy.
MICHIGAN: ENTHUSIASM
Seventy-nine percent of likely voters supporting Harris say they are very enthusiastic about supporting her.
Eighty-three percent of likely voters supporting Trump say they are very enthusiastic about supporting him.
MICHIGAN: FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Forty-eight percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 47 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her.
Forty-four percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 53 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
MICHIGAN: U.S. SENATE RACE
Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin has a slight lead over former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers 51 - 46 percent in the U.S. Senate race in Michigan.
Democrats 98 - 1 percent back Slotkin, while Republicans 94 - 4 percent back Rogers. Among independents, 50 percent back Slotkin, while 46 percent back Rogers.
WISCONSIN: PRESIDENTIAL RACE
In Wisconsin, Harris receives 48 percent support among likely voters, Trump receives 47 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 1 percent support. All other listed third-party candidates receive less than 1 percent support.
In a hypothetical 2-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris receives 49 percent support and Trump receives 48 percent support.
"Ten electoral votes hang in the balance in a state that went Biden's way by a minuscule 0.63 percent in 2020. Might 2024 also be decided by the narrowest of margins? It sure looks that way," added Malloy.
WISCONSIN: ENTHUSIASM
Seventy percent of likely voters supporting Harris say they are very enthusiastic about supporting her.
Seventy percent of likely voters supporting Trump say they are very enthusiastic about supporting him.
WISCONSIN: FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Both presidential candidates get mixed favorability ratings.
Forty-six percent have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 48 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her.
Forty-six percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
WISCONSIN: U.S. SENATE RACE
In a tight race, incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin has a slight lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde 51 - 47 percent.
Democrats 98 - 2 percent back Baldwin, while Republicans 93 - 6 percent back Hovde. Independents are split, with 50 percent backing Baldwin and 49 percent backing Hovde.
From September 12th - 16th, the Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed:
- 1,331 likely voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points;
- 905 likely voters in Michigan with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points;
- 1,075 likely voters in Wisconsin with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email poll@qu.edu or follow us on X (formerly known as Twitter) @QuinnipiacPoll.
Poll Questions
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Question 1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, Chase Oliver the Libertarian Party candidate, - (MI) Cornel West running as an independent candidate, and Randall Terry the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan candidate, / (WI) Cornel West the Justice For All Party candidate, Randall Terry the Constitution Party candidate, and Claudia De la Cruz the Party for Socialism and Liberation candidate, - for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Harris 50% 51% 48% Trump 45 45 47 Stein 2 1 1 Oliver - 1 - West - na - Terry - na - De la Cruz na na - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 2 REFUSED 1 1 1 -
Question 1a. If the only candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS) (Results based on total sample, only asked of respondents who did not choose Harris or Trump q1. Respondents who named Harris or Trump in q1 assigned to initial preference.)
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Harris 51% 51% 49% Trump 46 46 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) 1 2 2 REFUSED 1 1 1 -
Question 1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Very enthusiastic 80% 70% 69% Smwht enthusiastic 15 23 26 Not so enthusiastic 3 3 3 Not enthus at all 2 2 2 DK/NA - 2 - -
Question 2_MIonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Elissa Slotkin the Democrat and Mike Rogers the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS..... MI PA WI Slotkin 51% - - Rogers 46 - - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) 2 - - REFUSED 1 - - -
Question 2_PAonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Casey the Democrat and David McCormick the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS..... MI PA WI Casey - 52% - McCormick - 43 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - UNDECIDED(VOL) - 3 - REFUSED - 1 - -
Question 2_WIonly. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Tammy Baldwin the Democrat and Eric Hovde the Republican, for whom would you vote? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
LIKELY VOTERS..... MI PA WI Baldwin - - 51% Hovde - - 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 UNDECIDED(VOL) - - 1 REFUSED - - 1 -
Question 3. Thinking about the 2024 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or (MI only) vote at an early voting location?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI In person 52% 74% 71% Mail/Absentee ballot 35 24 26 Early voting loc 11 na na WON'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 2 1 3 -
Question 4. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Favorable 48% 48% 46% Unfavorable 47 43 48 Hvn't hrd enough 3 7 4 REFUSED 2 2 1 -
Question 5. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Favorable 44% 44% 46% Unfavorable 53 53 50 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2 REFUSED 2 2 2 -
Question 6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling the economy: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 50% 50% 51% Harris 48 48 47 DK/NA 2 3 2 -
Question 7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling immigration: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 49% 50% 52% Harris 48 46 45 DK/NA 3 3 3 -
Question 8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - preserving democracy in the United States: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 45% 45% 47% Harris 51 52 50 DK/NA 4 3 4 -
Question 9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling abortion: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 42% 38% 40% Harris 53 57 53 DK/NA 5 5 7 -
Question 10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling a crisis that put the country at great risk: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
LIKELY VOTERS... MI PA WI Trump 47% 47% 48% Harris 51 49 49 DK/NA 2 4 2