JP7565792B2 - Power generation plan creation device, bidding support system, and power generation plan creation program - Google Patents

Description

This disclosure relates to a power generation plan creation device, a bidding support system, and a power generation plan creation program that create a power generation plan.

Power generation companies that own power generation facilities and supply the electricity generated by those facilities generally supply electricity under contracts such as retail contracts and bilateral contracts, separate from market transactions. In order to supply electricity under these contracts, power generation companies forecast the amount of electricity demand and create power generation plans based on that demand.

Meanwhile, full liberalization of the retail electricity market has begun, and electricity is traded through the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX). There are two types of transactions at the JEPX: the day-ahead market, also known as the spot market, and the hour-ahead market, also known as the intraday market. The above transactions at the JEPX are conducted by computer, and each participating power company submits bids via the Internet or other means. When participating in transactions in the electricity trading market, power generation companies formulate power generation and bidding plans taking into account the amount of demand, the cost of power generation, the maximum output of the generators, and the market price.

In Patent Document 1, a power generation plan is created based on predicted demand and the cost required for power generation, a marginal cost indicating the increase in cost when demand increases is calculated, a market trading plan is created using the marginal cost and market trading price, and the power generation plan is revised using the market trading plan.

JP 2019-83601 A

In the technology described in Patent Document 1, a power generation plan is created, then a market trading plan is created and then the power generation plan is modified using the market trading plan, so the market trading plan depends on the power generation plan created earlier. For this reason, for example, because a plan that takes market trading into account is created under the assumption that a certain generator will be operated, there are limitations on the market trading volume that can be taken into account, and it may not be possible to fully utilize market trading. Therefore, with the procedure described in Patent Document 1 in which a power generation plan is formulated first, it may not be possible to create an appropriate power generation plan that takes market trading into account.

The present disclosure has been made in consideration of the above, and aims to provide a power generation plan creation device that can create an appropriate power generation plan that takes market transactions into account.

In order to solve the above-mentioned problems and achieve the objective, the power generation plan creation device disclosed herein includes a memory unit that stores, for each generator, generator information for calculating the cost required for power generation by the generator, the generator information including a fuel unit price, a lower limit output, and an upper limit output , and a generator information generation unit that sets the market price in the electricity market as the fuel unit price of the simulated generator, the trading volume in the electricity market as the power generation output of the simulated generator, the minimum bid volume in the electricity market as the lower limit output of the simulated generator, and the upper limit of the bid volume in the electricity market as the upper limit output of the simulated generator, thereby treating the trading of electricity in the electricity market as power generation by a simulated generator, and generates information for calculating the cost required for trading in the electricity market using a predicted market price in the electricity market and bidding conditions in the electricity market as generator information of the simulated generator and stores the information in the memory unit. The power generation plan creation device further includes a plan creation unit that simultaneously creates a power generation plan and a bidding plan in the electricity market using the generator information stored in the memory unit and a predicted value of demand for the period for which the plan is created, and the bidding conditions include a minimum bid amount and an upper limit of the bid amount in the electricity market .

This disclosure has the effect of making it possible to create appropriate power generation plans that take market transactions into account.

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration example of a power generation plan creation device according to a first embodiment; FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration example of a computer system that realizes a power generation plan creation device according to a first embodiment. A flowchart showing an example of a power generation plan creation process procedure in the power generation plan creation device according to the first embodiment. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of generator information according to the first embodiment; FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a power generation plan and a bidding plan displayed by a display unit according to the first embodiment; FIG. 1 shows an example of the configuration of a bid support system according to a second embodiment.

The power generation plan creation device, bidding support system, and power generation plan creation program according to the embodiments are described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

Embodiment 1.
FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration example of a power generation plan creation device according to a first embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment includes a market price prediction value acquisition unit 11, a bidding condition acquisition unit 12, a demand prediction information acquisition unit 13, a power generator information generation unit 14, a storage unit 15, a plan creation unit 16, a plan transmission unit 17, and a display unit 18. The power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment creates a power generation plan and a bidding plan in an electricity trading market to support a business operator who manages a power generator, such as a power generation business operator. The power generation plan creation device 1 transmits the created bidding plan to a bidding support device 3, and transmits the created power generation plan and bidding plan to a supply and demand management device 2. The power generation plan creation device 1 and the bidding support device 3 configure a bidding support system of this embodiment.

The market price prediction value acquisition unit 11 acquires a predicted value of the market price in the electricity trading market. The market price prediction value acquisition unit 11 may acquire a predicted value of the market price, for example, by accepting input from an operator, or may acquire a predicted value of the market price by receiving a predicted value of the market price from another device not shown. The market price prediction value acquisition unit 11 outputs the acquired predicted value of the market price to the generator information generation unit 14. Note that when multiple trading markets are taken into consideration, such as the spot market and the time-ahead market, the market price prediction value acquisition unit 11 acquires a predicted value of the market price for each trading market.

The bidding condition acquisition unit 12 acquires bidding conditions in the electricity trading market. The bidding condition acquisition unit 12 may acquire bidding conditions, for example, by accepting input from an operator, or may acquire bidding conditions by receiving bidding conditions from another device not shown. The bidding conditions include, for example, a minimum bid amount, a bid amount increment, a minimum bid price, and an upper limit of the bid amount. The bidding condition acquisition unit 12 outputs the acquired bidding conditions to the generator information generation unit 14. When multiple trading markets are taken into consideration, the bidding condition acquisition unit 12 acquires bidding conditions for each trading condition.

The demand forecast information acquisition unit 13 acquires from the supply and demand management device 2 demand forecast information indicating a forecast value of the demand, which is the electricity supplied to the demander by the business operator supported by the power generation plan creation device 1, and stores the acquired demand forecast information in the memory unit 15. The supply and demand management device 2 is a device that manages the demand and supply of electricity in the business operator supported by the power generation plan creation device 1. The supply and demand management device 2 predicts the demand amount using, for example, past performance values and temperature. Note that, here, an example is described in which the power generation plan creation device 1 is provided separately from the supply and demand management device 2, but the power generation plan creation device 1 may be integrated with the supply and demand management device 2. In other words, the power generation plan creation device 1 may be part of the supply and demand management device 2. When the power generation plan creation device 1 is part of the supply and demand management device 2, the demand forecast information acquisition unit 13 acquires the demand forecast value from a functional unit that predicts the demand amount in the supply and demand management device 2. Note that, although an example is shown here in which the demand forecast information is stored in the storage unit 15 and then input to the plan creation unit 16, this is not limiting, and the demand forecast information may be input directly from the demand forecast information acquisition unit 13 to the plan creation unit 16.

The generator information generating unit 14 regards transactions in the electricity market as a simulated generator with the transaction volume in the electricity market as the power generation output, and generates information for calculating the costs required for transactions in the electricity market using the predicted market price in the electricity market and bidding conditions as generator information of the simulated generator and stores it in the storage unit 15. The generator information is information used to create a power generation plan and a bidding plan, which will be described later, and is information for calculating the costs required for power generation. The generator information is, for example, information for determining the unit price and operation constraints for power generation. Details of the generator information will be described later.

The storage unit 15 stores demand forecast information and generator information. The generator information is information for calculating the cost required for generating electricity by the generator, and is stored for each generator. The generator information stored in the storage unit 15 includes the generator information generated by the generator information generating unit 14 described above, and the generator information of the real generators that generate electricity, such as thermal power generation and hydroelectric power generation. The generator information of the real generators may be input by an operator and stored in the storage unit 15, or may be received from another device not shown and stored in the storage unit 15.

The plan creation unit 16 uses the demand forecast information and power generator information stored in the memory unit 15 to simultaneously create a power generation plan and a bidding plan, and outputs the created power generation plan and bidding plan to the plan transmission unit 17 and the display unit 18. The operation of the plan creation unit 16 will be described later.

The plan transmission unit 17 transmits the power generation plan and the bidding plan to the supply and demand management device 2, and outputs the bidding plan to the bidding support device 3. The supply and demand management device 2 creates a supply and demand plan using the received power generation plan and bidding plan and the demand forecast information. The bidding support device 3 uses the bidding plan created by the power generation plan creation device 1 to process bidding for electricity trading systems, including the Japan Electric Power Exchange. The display unit 18 displays the power generation plan and the bidding plan.

The power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment treats the power trading market as a simulated generator, generates generator information that indicates the characteristics of the simulated generator in the same way as a generator, and creates a power generation plan and a bidding plan simultaneously using the generator information of the simulated generator and the real generator. Therefore, it is possible to make the most of the power market transactions compared to creating a power generation plan first and then creating a bidding plan later, and it is possible to create an appropriate power generation plan that maximizes the profits of the business operators that are the targets of support from the power generation plan creation device 1.

Next, the hardware configuration of the power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment will be described. In the power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment, a power generation plan creation program, which is a program describing the processing in the power generation plan creation device 1, is executed on the computer system, so that the computer system functions as the power generation plan creation device 1. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a computer system that realizes the power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 2, this computer system includes a control unit 101, an input unit 102, a memory unit 103, a display unit 104, a communication unit 105, and an output unit 106, which are connected via a system bus 107.

In FIG. 2, the control unit 101 is a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), and executes a power generation plan creation program in which the processing in the power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment is described. The input unit 102 is composed of, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, and the like, and is used by the user of the computer system to input various information. The storage unit 103 includes various memories such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) and a ROM (Read Only Memory), and a storage device such as a hard disk, and stores the program to be executed by the control unit 101, necessary data obtained in the process of processing, and the like. The storage unit 103 is also used as a temporary storage area for the program. The display unit 104 is composed of a display, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display Panel), and the like, and displays various screens to the user of the computer system. The communication unit 105 is a receiver and a transmitter that perform communication processing. The output unit 106 is a printer, etc. Note that FIG. 2 is an example, and the configuration of the computer system is not limited to the example of FIG. 2.

Here, an example of the operation of the computer system until the power generation plan creation program of this embodiment is in a state where it can be executed will be described. In the computer system having the above-mentioned configuration, for example, the power generation plan creation program is installed in the memory unit 103 from a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM set in a CD (Compact Disc)-ROM drive or DVD (Digital Versatile Disc)-ROM drive (not shown). Then, when the power generation plan creation program is executed, the power generation plan creation program read from the memory unit 103 is stored in the memory unit 103. In this state, the control unit 101 executes processing as the power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment according to the program stored in the memory unit 103.

In the above description, a program describing the processing in the power generation plan creation device 1 is provided on a CD-ROM or DVD-ROM as a recording medium, but this is not limiting. Depending on the configuration of the computer system and the capacity of the program provided, for example, a program provided via a transmission medium such as the Internet via the communication unit 105 may be used.

The generator information generating unit 14 and the plan creating unit 16 shown in FIG. 1 are realized by executing the power generation plan creating program stored in the memory unit 103 shown in FIG. 2 by the control unit 101 shown in FIG. 2. The generator information generating unit 14 and the plan creating unit 16 are realized by the memory unit 103 shown in FIG. 2. The memory unit 103 shown in FIG. 2 is also used to realize the generator information generating unit 14 and the plan creating unit 16. The memory unit 15 shown in FIG. 1 is a part of the memory unit 103 shown in FIG. 2. The demand forecast information acquiring unit 13 and the plan transmitting unit 17 shown in FIG. 1 are realized by the communication unit 105 shown in FIG. 2. The market price forecast value acquiring unit 11 and the bidding condition acquiring unit 12 shown in FIG. 1 are realized by the input unit 102 or the communication unit 105 shown in FIG. 2. The display unit 18 shown in FIG. 1 is realized by the display unit 104 shown in FIG. 2. The power generation plan creating device 1 may be realized by a plurality of computer systems. The power generation plan creating device 1 may also be realized by executing the power generation plan creating program in a cloud system composed of a plurality of computer systems.

For example, the power generation plan creation program of this embodiment causes the computer to execute the steps of: storing, for each generator, generator information in the storage unit 15, which is information for calculating the cost required for power generation by the generator; and regarding transactions in the electricity market as a simulated generator with the transaction amount in the electricity market as the power generation output, generating information for calculating the cost required for transactions in the electricity market using a predicted market price in the electricity market and bidding conditions in the electricity market as generator information of the simulated generator and storing the information in the storage unit 15. In addition, the power generation plan creation program of this embodiment causes the computer to execute the steps of simultaneously creating a power generation plan and a bidding plan in the electricity market using the generator information stored in the storage unit and a predicted value of demand for the period for which the plan is created.

The supply and demand management device 2 and the bidding support device 3 are also realized by a computer system.

Next, the operation of this embodiment will be described. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing an example of a power generation plan creation processing procedure in the power generation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the market price prediction value acquisition unit 11 acquires a predicted value of the market price (step S1). The market price prediction value acquisition unit 11 outputs the acquired predicted value of the market price to the generator information generation unit 14. The bidding condition acquisition unit 12 acquires bidding conditions (step S2). The bidding condition acquisition unit 12 outputs the acquired bidding conditions to the generator information generation unit 14.

The generator information generating unit 14 generates generator information of a simulated generator in which the market trading volume is regarded as the power generation volume (step S3). In detail, the generator information generating unit 14 generates generator information of a simulated generator in which the market trading volume is regarded as the power generation volume using the predicted market price and the bidding conditions, and stores the generator information in the memory unit 15.

Figure 4 is a diagram showing an example of generator information in this embodiment. In the example shown in Figure 4, the generator information includes a generator ID (IDentifier), which is the identification information of the generator, the generator type, the start/stop cost, the fuel unit price, the upper limit output, and the lower limit output. The generator information is information that is taken into consideration as a constraint condition when creating a power generation plan and is used to calculate costs, and the items differ depending on the type of generator. For this reason, although the generator information differs depending on the type of generator, here, each item is defined regardless of the type of generator, and for generators for which the item does not need to be taken into consideration, the corresponding value is set to 0. Note that Figure 4 is an example, and the specific configuration of the generator information is not limited to the example shown in Figure 4.

The start/stop cost is the cost required when a generator changes from stopped to started. For example, when a generator changes from stopped to started, the cost required for start-up is defined by a predetermined function according to the stopped time up to that point. Instead of being defined by a function, the start/stop cost may be set as a fixed value as the cost per start. The fuel unit price is the unit price of the fuel used for power generation. The upper limit output is the upper limit of the generator's output, and the lower limit output is the lower limit of the generator's output. Although omitted in Figure 4, the generator information generally also includes the minimum operating time and upper and lower limits of the rate of change of the generator's output. Furthermore, if a pumped storage generator or the like is included as a generator, upper and lower limits of the pond's water level are set.

In the example shown in FIG. 4, two markets, a spot market and an hourly market, are considered as the electricity trading market, and the generator ID corresponding to the buying bid in the spot market is 0, the generator ID corresponding to the selling bid in the spot market is 1, the generator ID corresponding to the buying bid in the hourly market is 2, and the generator ID corresponding to the selling bid in the hourly market is 3. In this way, in the case of a simulated generator, in the case of a buying bid, a value obtained by adding a commission and the like to the predicted value (unit price) of the market price is stored in the fuel unit price field as a negative value by adding a negative sign to the predicted value (unit price) of the market price. In addition, in the upper limit output, the upper limit value of the transaction given as the bidding condition is stored, and in the lower limit output, the minimum bid amount given as the bidding condition, i.e., the lower limit value of the transaction, is stored. In this way, by storing the predicted value of the market price and the bidding condition in the corresponding field of the generator information, each trading market can be treated in the same way as a generator. For generators with a generator ID of 4 or higher, information on real generators such as thermal power generators is stored. As described above, the generator information regarding the actual generator is stored in the memory unit 15 by being input in advance or by receiving it from another device.

Returning to the explanation of FIG. 3, after step S3, the demand forecast information acquisition unit 13 acquires demand forecast information (step S4). In detail, the demand forecast information acquisition unit 13 acquires, from the supply and demand management device 2, demand forecast information indicating the predicted value of demand for the period for which the power generation plan is to be created, and stores the information in the memory unit 15.

The plan creation unit 16 simultaneously creates a power generation plan and a bidding plan (step S5). In detail, the plan creation unit 16 uses the generator information and demand forecast information stored in the memory unit 15 to simultaneously create a power generation plan and a bidding plan so as to maximize the profits of the business operator supported by the power generation plan creation device 1. That is, the plan creation unit 16 uses the generator information and demand forecast information to determine an objective function and constraint conditions that indicate the costs required for power generation by the generators and the simulated generators, and determines the power generation output of the generators and the simulated generators that maximizes the determined objective function under the constraint conditions, and creates a power generation plan and a bidding plan using the determined power generation output. The objective function corresponds to a formulation of the profits of the business operator supported by the power generation plan creation device 1, so the profits of the business operator can be maximized by maximizing the objective function.

For example, the plan creation unit 16 sets the objective function F(p) shown in formula (1) and each constant in the constraint conditions shown in the following formulas (2) to (6) using the generator information. Note that p is the output when the generator is in an activated state. Note that the following formulas (2) to (6) are examples of formulations when the generator is a thermal power generator, and the constraint conditions are changed as appropriate depending on the type of generator.

t is an integer indicating the amount of time that has elapsed since the start of the time period to be processed, i.e., the period for which the plan is to be created, and the start time of the time period to be processed is set to t = 0. T is an integer indicating the length of the time period to be processed. Note that t is an integer indicating the number in Δ units, where Δ is a set time step. In other words, Δ x t indicates the amount of time that has elapsed since the start of the time period to be processed. The value of T can be set to any value, but for example, it is a value equivalent to the length of about one week.

The first term in the brackets [ ] on the right side of equation (1) indicates the profit obtained from a contract other than a transaction in the electricity market, such as a retail contract or a bilateral contract. _{D s,t} is the demand power to be supplied to the counterparty of a contract such as a retail contract or a bilateral contract at the time corresponding to the elapsed time t. The demand power is calculated based on the demand forecast information. S (D _s,t ) is the profit for each counterparty of a contract such as a retail contract or a bilateral contract. Since the calculation method of the electricity fee for contracts such as a retail contract or a bilateral contract is determined by the terms and conditions, S (D _s,t ) is calculated according to the terms and conditions. s is a numerical value corresponding to each contract.

The second term in [ ] on the right side of formula (1) indicates the fuel cost of the generator. p _g,t is the output of the generator at the time corresponding to the elapsed time t. g is a numerical value indicating each generator, and corresponds to the generator ID described above. f(p _g,t ) indicates the fuel cost for each generator. The fuel cost is calculated based on the fuel unit price included in the generator information and p _g,t . As described above, the generators from g=0 to g=3 are simulated generators and correspond to market transactions. When the simulated generators correspond to selling bids, the fuel unit price becomes a negative value, so the second term of the above formula (1) is marked with a -, but the negative value is subtracted, resulting in a positive value, and a profit according to the selling bid volume is obtained.

The third term in brackets [ ] on the right side of equation (1) indicates the startup and shutdown cost of the generator. _{u g,t} indicates the state of each generator at the time corresponding to the elapsed time t. When the generator is started, u _g,t is 1, and when the generator is stopped, u _g,t is 0. U(u _g,t ) indicates the startup and shutdown cost of each generator. When u _g,t changes from 0 to 1, that is, when u _g,t is 1 and u _g,t-1 becomes 0, the startup cost is determined by a function determined in advance according to the downtime up to that point, and is 0 otherwise.

In addition, in formula (1), the objective function includes profits from contracts such as retail contracts and bilateral contracts, which are terms that are not dependent on the power generation plan and bidding plan. However, this term does not need to be included if there are no contracts such as retail contracts and bilateral contracts. If profits from contracts such as retail contracts and bilateral contracts are not included, the value of the objective function may become negative. However, if the positive and negative signs are taken into consideration, that is, in the case of negative values, a value with a smaller absolute value is considered to be greater than a value with a larger absolute value, then the profits of the operator can be maximized by maximizing the objective function.

Equation (2) shows a constraint condition for matching the power demand and the power supply amount, that is, the condition that the sum of the power generation amount, i.e., the power output, by the generator and the amount bought and sold in the power market matches the demand amount _Dt .

Equation (3) is a constraint that the output of each generator is within the range of the upper and lower limits of the output of each generator. Equation (4) is a constraint that the rate of change of the output of each generator is within the range of the upper and lower limits of the rate of change of the output of each generator. -p _change,g,t indicates the lower limit of the rate of change of the output of the generator, and p _change,g,t indicates the upper limit of the rate of change of the output of the generator.

Equation (5) is a constraint condition that the continuous operation time of each generator is equal to or greater than the minimum operation time. Note that, since it is necessary to ensure that the continuous operation time is equal to or greater than the minimum operation time for each continuous operation period, that is, for each period from when u _{g ,t} becomes 1 until when u g,t changes from 1 to 0, Equation (5) is a constraint imposed on each continuous operation period. _{U min_operation,g} is an integer that discretizes the minimum operation time of each generator in units of Δ.

Equation (6) is a constraint condition that the continuous stop time of each generator is equal to or greater than the minimum stop time. Note that, since the continuous stop time must be equal to or greater than the minimum stop time for each period of continuous stop, that is, the period from when u _{g, t} becomes 0 until when u g,t changes from 0 to 1, Equation (6) is a constraint imposed on each period of continuous stop. _{U min_stop,g} is an integer that discretizes the minimum stop time of each generator in units of Δ.

The plan creation unit 16 calculates the power generation amount p g,t of each generator that maximizes the objective function by using the objective function shown in the above formula (1) and the constraint conditions shown in formulas (2 ₎ to (6). The method of solving the optimization problem so as to maximize the objective function can be, for example, any method known as a method of solving a mixed integer quadratic programming problem. By solving the optimization problem, the power generation amount p _g,t of each generator is determined. Since g=0 to g=3 of the determined power generation amount p _g,t are actually trading amounts in market transactions, the plan creation unit 16 creates a bidding plan using these as buying bid amounts or selling bid amounts. Since generators with g of 4 or more are true generators, the plan creation unit 16 reflects the solution of the optimization problem for generators with g of 4 or more in the power generation plan. In this way, in this embodiment, the power generation plan and the bidding plan can be created simultaneously. The plan creation unit 16 outputs the power generation plan and the bidding plan to the plan transmission unit 17 and the display unit 18.

After step S5, the display unit 18 displays the power generation plan and the bidding plan (step S6). FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a power generation plan and a bidding plan displayed by the display unit of this embodiment. In this manner, the display unit 18 can display the power generation plan and the bidding plan determined simultaneously in a superimposed manner. Note that the display unit 18 may also be capable of displaying the power generation plan and the bidding plan separately.

The plan transmission unit 17 transmits the power generation plan and the bidding plan (step S7). In detail, the plan transmission unit 17 transmits the power generation plan and the bidding plan to the supply and demand management device 2, and transmits the bidding plan to the bidding support device 3. This completes the power generation plan creation process.

In addition, as a bidding condition, information indicating the probability of a predicted value of the market price, such as the probability that the market price prediction will be incorrect, may be set as a parameter, and the plan creation unit 16 may create a power generation plan and a bidding plan taking this parameter into consideration. For example, the market price may be defined as a probability density function or a stepped value obtained by discretizing the probability density function, and used as the fuel cost in the above generator information. Alternatively, the market price may be set as an expected value taking into consideration the probability density function.

As described above, in this embodiment, electricity market transactions are treated as simulated generators to generate generator information, and power generation plans and bidding plans are created simultaneously, taking into account the generator information in the same way as real generators. This makes it possible to create an appropriate power generation plan that takes market transactions into account.

Embodiment 2.
Next, a bidding support system according to the second embodiment will be described. Fig. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of the bidding support system according to the present embodiment. The bidding support system according to the present embodiment includes a power generation plan creation device 1 and a bidding support device 3 similar to those of the first embodiment, and also includes a market price prediction device 4. Components having the same functions as those of the first embodiment are given the same reference numerals as those of the first embodiment, and duplicated explanations will be omitted. Below, differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described.

The market price prediction device 4 of this embodiment obtains a predicted value of the market price that reflects the predicted value of the power generation amount of power generation facilities including at least one of a solar power generation facility and a wind power generation facility. In detail, the market price prediction device 4 predicts the market price with high accuracy using the past market price and bid amount actual values and past related information that affects demand. Furthermore, the market price prediction device 4 reflects the power generation amount of variable power generation facilities with large fluctuations in power output, such as a solar power generation facility and a wind power generation facility, in the market price prediction model, and predicts the market price taking into account the fluctuation of the variable power generation facilities using forecast values such as weather for the prediction period. In addition, the market price prediction device 4 may predict the market price with high accuracy by using a prediction model that takes into account market division. Due to restrictions on the power system, it is not possible to transmit power more than the capacity of the interconnection line connecting the areas, so the wholesale power market performs the contract processing after taking into account the interconnection line capacity. Specifically, in the wholesale electricity market, after performing contract processing without considering the interconnection line capacity, a check is made to see if power transmission will exceed the interconnection line capacity, and if the capacity is exceeded, the interconnection line is fixed in a disconnected state and the contract processing is performed again. This is market fragmentation, and when market fragmentation occurs, the contract price fluctuates significantly. By using a prediction model that considers market fragmentation, it is possible to improve the accuracy of prediction. Note that the method of predicting the market price in the market price prediction device 4 is not limited to this example, and any method that can predict the market price with high accuracy will suffice.

The market price prediction device 4 is realized by a computer system, similar to the power generation plan creation device 1 of embodiment 1.

In FIG. 6, the market price prediction device 4 is provided separately from the power generation plan creation device 1 and the bidding support device 3, but the power generation plan creation device 1 or the bidding support device 3 may have the functions of the market price prediction device 4.

The market price prediction value acquisition unit 11 of the power generation plan creation device 1 acquires a highly accurate market price prediction value from the market price prediction device 4 and outputs it to the generator information generation unit 14. The operation of the power generation plan creation device 1 is the same as in the first embodiment.

As described above, in this embodiment, a highly accurate market price forecast value is obtained, and the obtained forecast value is used to generate generator information by treating electricity market transactions as simulated generators as in the first embodiment, and a power generation plan and a bidding plan are simultaneously created by taking into account the generator information as in the case of a real generator. Therefore, the same effects as in the first embodiment are achieved, and by using a highly accurate market price, the difference between the profits predicted at the time of planning and the actual profits of the business operators supported by the power generation plan creation device 1 can be reduced compared to the first embodiment.

Embodiment 3.
Next, a power generation plan creation device 1 according to the third embodiment will be described. The configuration of the power generation plan creation device 1 according to the third embodiment is the same as that of the first embodiment. Components having the same functions as those of the first embodiment will be given the same reference numerals as those of the first embodiment, and duplicated descriptions will be omitted. Below, differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described.

In the first embodiment, a spot market and an hourly market called the energy market are exemplified as electricity trading markets. The energy market is a market where electricity volume is bought and sold. Meanwhile, in addition to the energy market, an adjustment power market called the supply and demand adjustment market where adjustment power is bought and sold is scheduled to be opened as an electricity trading market in 2021. Adjustment power is the ability to make adjustments to achieve simultaneous equal amounts of electricity when fluctuations from planned values occur. This adjustment is made by the electricity transmission and distribution business operator. The electricity transmission and distribution business operator secures both an upward adjustment power, which is the ability to adjust when a shortage occurs, and a downward adjustment power, which is the ability to adjust when a surplus occurs, so that it can adjust whether a shortage or surplus of electricity occurs. In the future, power generation business operators are expected to participate in transactions in the supply and demand adjustment market as well.

In this embodiment, the power generation plan and the bidding plan are created taking into consideration transactions in the supply and demand adjustment market. For example, in this embodiment, in step S5 shown in FIG. 3, the plan creation unit 16 solves an optimization problem that maximizes the objective function shown in the following formula (7) instead of formula (1). At this time, in addition to the constraints of formulas (2) to (6) described in embodiment 1, the constraints shown in the following formulas (8) and (9) are also taken into consideration.

The first term in [ ] on the right side of the above formula (7) indicates the profit obtained from the supply and demand adjustment market. Note that the second term is the sum of two terms in Σ, the first term in Σ indicates the profit from the upward adjustment power, and the second term in Σ indicates the profit from the downward adjustment power. _{A up,am,t} indicates the trading volume of upward adjustment power in the supply and demand adjustment market when electricity at the time corresponding to the elapsed time t is the commodity. _{A down,am,t} indicates the trading volume of downward adjustment power in the supply and demand adjustment market when electricity at the time corresponding to the elapsed time t is the commodity. AM up (A _up,am,t ) is the profit related to the upward adjustment power by trading in the supply and demand adjustment market when electricity at the time corresponding to the elapsed time t is the commodity.

The profits from the trade in the supply and demand adjustment market include the profit according to the contract amount of the adjustment capacity obtained by the contract of the adjustment capacity itself, i.e., the sales amount, and the profit according to the adjustment capacity activation amount obtained when the adjustment capacity is activated. The unit price for calculating these two profits is calculated as the predicted value of the contract price in the adjustment capacity market. Therefore, for example, AMup ( _Aup,am,t ) is calculated based on the predicted value of the contract price in the supply and demand adjustment market, Aup _,am,t , and the predicted value of the adjustment capacity activation amount. AMdown ( _Adown,am,t ) is the profit related to the down adjustment capacity by the trade in the supply and demand adjustment market when the electricity at the time corresponding to the elapsed time t is treated as a commodity. For example, AMdown ( _Adown,am,t ) is calculated based on the predicted value of the contract price in the supply and demand adjustment market, _Adown,am,t , and the predicted value of the adjustment capacity activation amount. am is a numerical value corresponding to the type of balancing market. When there are multiple types of balancing markets, the profits in each balancing market are added together.

Moreover, the above formula (8) is a constraint condition that the sales amount of the upward adjustment capability is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum upward adjustment capability of the generators. _{p max,g,t} indicates the output upper limit of each generator at the elapsed time t, and when the output upper limit value does not depend on the time, the output upper limit of each generator can be expressed as p _max,g . The maximum upward adjustment capability of each generator is p _max,g minus p _g,t , which is the output of the generator at the time corresponding to the elapsed time t. Formula (9) is a constraint condition that the sales amount of the downward adjustment capability is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum downward adjustment capability of the generators. p _min,g,t indicates the output lower limit of each generator at the elapsed time t, and when the output lower limit value does not depend on the time, the output upper limit of each generator can be expressed as p _min, g. The maximum downward adjustment capability of each generator is p _g,t minus p _min,g .

The predicted value of the contract price in the supply and demand adjustment market may be acquired by the market price prediction value acquisition unit 11 and stored in the memory unit 15 as part of the generator information, or may be stored in the memory unit 15 separately from the generator information. The plan creation unit 16 reads out the predicted value of the contract price stored in the memory unit 15 and uses it to calculate the solution of the optimization problem. Through the above processing, the plan creation unit 16 of this embodiment creates a bidding plan in the supply and demand adjustment market in addition to the power generation plan and the bidding plan in the energy market described in embodiment 1. The plan creation unit 16 outputs the bidding plan in the supply and demand adjustment market to the display unit 18 and the plan transmission unit 17. The display unit 18 can display the bidding plan in the supply and demand adjustment market in addition to the power generation plan and the bidding plan in the energy market. The plan transmission unit 17 transmits the power generation plan and the bidding plans in the energy market and the supply and demand adjustment market to the supply and demand management device 2, and transmits the bidding plans in the energy market and the supply and demand adjustment market to the bidding support device 3. In addition, bidding support devices that support bidding in the energy market and the supply and demand adjustment market may be provided separately. In this case, the plan transmission unit 17 transmits a bidding plan for the energy market to the bidding support device corresponding to the energy market, and transmits a bidding plan for the supply and demand adjustment market to the bidding support device corresponding to the supply and demand adjustment market. The operation of this embodiment other than that described above is the same as that of embodiment 1.

The operation of this embodiment may be applied when using the highly accurate market price prediction value described in embodiment 2. In this case, the predicted value of the contract price in the supply and demand adjustment market may be calculated by the market price prediction device 4, may be calculated by another device, or may be input by an operator. Furthermore, as with energy market transactions, the supply and demand adjustment market may also be regarded as a simulated generator, information on costs may be held as generator information, and the first term in [ ] on the right-hand side of equation (7) may be integrated with the second term.

As described above, in this embodiment, energy market transactions are treated as simulated generators to generate generator information, and the generator information is taken into account in the same way as for real generators, and buying and selling in the supply and demand adjustment market is also taken into account to simultaneously create a power generation plan and a bidding plan. That is, in this embodiment, the objective function includes the costs due to transactions in the supply and demand adjustment market, and the plan creation unit 16 creates bidding plans for both the energy market and the supply and demand adjustment market as bidding plans. Therefore, while it is possible to achieve the same effects as in embodiment 1, it is also possible to maximize the profits of businesses supported by the power generation plan creation device 1 by more effectively utilizing market transactions by also taking into account the supply and demand adjustment market.

The configurations shown in the above embodiments are merely examples, and may be combined with other known technologies, or the embodiments may be combined with each other. In addition, parts of the configurations may be omitted or modified without departing from the spirit of the invention.

1 Power generation plan creation device, 2 Supply and demand management device, 3 Bidding support device, 4 Market price prediction device, 11 Market price prediction value acquisition unit, 12 Bidding condition acquisition unit, 13 Demand forecast information acquisition unit, 14 Power generator information generation unit, 15 Storage unit, 16 Plan creation unit, 17 Plan transmission unit, 18 Display unit.

Claims (8)

a storage unit that stores, for each generator, generator information for calculating a cost required for generating electricity by the generator, the generator information including a fuel unit price, a lower limit output, and an upper limit output ;
a generator information generating unit that regards trading of electricity in the electricity market as power generation by the simulated generator by setting the market price in the electricity market as the fuel unit price of a simulated generator, the trading volume in the electricity market as the power generation output of the simulated generator, the minimum bid volume in the electricity market as the lower limit output of the simulated generator, and the upper limit of the bid volume in the electricity market as the upper limit output of the simulated generator , and generates information for calculating costs required for trading in the electricity market as generator information of the simulated generator using a predicted market price in the electricity market and bidding conditions in the electricity market, and stores the information in the storage unit;
a plan creation unit that uses the power generator information stored in the storage unit and a forecast value of demand for a period for which the plan is created to simultaneously create a power generation plan and a bidding plan for the electricity market;
Equipped with
The power generation plan creating device , wherein the bidding conditions include the minimum bid amount and an upper limit of the bid amount in the electricity market . The power generation plan creation device according to claim 1, characterized in that the plan creation unit uses the generator information stored in the memory unit and the predicted demand value to determine an objective function and constraint conditions that indicate the cost required for power generation by the generator and the simulated generator, calculates the power generation output of the generator and the simulated generator that maximizes the determined objective function under the constraint conditions, and creates the power generation plan and the bidding plan using the calculated power generation output. the electricity market is an energy market;
The objective function includes a cost due to transactions in the electricity supply and demand adjustment market,
3. The power generation plan creation device according to claim 2, wherein the plan creation unit creates, as the bidding plan, a bidding plan in each of the energy market and the power supply and demand adjustment market. The power generation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that the bidding conditions include information indicating the probability of the predicted value of the market price. The power generation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that the predicted market price value is a predicted value that reflects a predicted value of the amount of power generated by a power generation facility including at least one of a solar power generation facility and a wind power generation facility. a display unit for displaying the power generation plan and the bidding plan;
6. The power generation plan creating device according to claim 1, further comprising: A power generation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 6,
a bidding support device that processes bidding using the bidding plan created by the power generation plan creation device;
A bidding support system comprising: storing, in a storage unit, generator information for calculating the cost required for generating electricity by each generator, the generator information including a fuel unit price, a lower limit output, and an upper limit output ;
a step of treating a market price in an electricity market as a fuel unit price of a simulated generator, a trading volume in the electricity market as the power generation output of the simulated generator, a minimum bid volume in the electricity market as a lower limit output of the simulated generator, and an upper limit of the bid volume in the electricity market as an upper limit output of the simulated generator, thereby regarding trading of electricity volume in the electricity market as power generation by the simulated generator , and generating information for calculating costs required for trading in the electricity market using a predicted market price in the electricity market and bidding conditions in the electricity market as generator information of the simulated generator and storing the information in the storage unit;
creating a power generation plan and a bidding plan for the electricity market at the same time, using the power generator information stored in the storage unit and a forecast value of demand for a period for which the plan is to be created;
Run the following on your computer :
The power generation plan creating program , wherein the bidding conditions include the minimum bid amount and an upper limit of the bid amount in the electricity market .

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