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Recent debates and speeches... | |
2018 State of the State speeches (Jan.-March, 2018)
2018 State of the Union speech (Jan. 30, 2017)
2017 State of the Union speech (Feb. 28, 2017)
Third Presidential debate (Oct. 19, 2016)
Second Presidential debate (Oct. 9, 2016)
Vice-presidential debate (Oct. 4, 2016)
First Presidential debate (Sept. 26, 2016)
Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton On the Issues (paperback Feb. 2016)
Miami Democratic debate (March 2016)
Miami Republican debate (March 2016)
Republican primary debate in Detroit, Michigan (March 2016)
CNN-Telemundo Republican debate on eve of Texas primary. (Feb. 2016)
2016 CNN GOP Town Hall in South Carolina (Feb. 2016)
2016 CBS News Republican Debate in S.C. (Feb. 2016)
PBS Democratic Primary Debate in Wisconsin (Feb. 2016)
2016 ABC News/IJReview Republican Debate in N.H. (Feb. 2016)
MSNBC Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire (Feb. 2016)
CNN Democratic Town Hall (Jan. 2016)
Fox Iowa GOP debate (Jan. 2016)
NBC/CBC Democratic debate (Jan. 2016)
Fox Business GOP debate (Jan. 2016)
State of the Union address (Jan. 2016)
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues (paperback Feb. 2016)
CNN GOP Nevada debate (Dec. 2015)
Syrian Refugee crisis (Nov.-Dec. 2015)
CBS Democratic debate (Nov. 2015)
Fox Business GOP debate (Nov. 2015)
CNBC GOP debate (Oct. 2015)
CNN Democrat debate (Oct. 2015)
CNN GOP debate (Sept. 2015)
Fox/Facebook GOP debate (August 2015)
Marco Rubio vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues (paperback June 2015)
Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul On the Issues (paperback May 2015)
Rand Paul vs. Jeb Bush On the Issues (paperback April 2015)
Jeb vs. Hillary On the Issues (paperback Feb. 2015)
Rand vs. Ron Paul On the Issues (Chart April 2015)
Hillary vs. Bill Clinton On the Issues (Chart Feb. 2015)
Jeb vs. George Bush On the Issues (Chart March 2015)
Excerpts from "Hard Choices" (by Hillary Clinton)
Excerpts from "Immigration Wars" (by Jeb Bush)
Excerpts from "Government Bullies" (by Rand Paul)
Iowa pre-caucus Summits (Jan.-March, 2015)
2015 presidential hopeful excerpts
Senate debates (for Nov. 2014 elections):
Recent books by...
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Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R, MA)
No Apology
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Rep. Paul Ryan (R, WI)
Young Guns
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Pres. Barack Obama
The Audacity of Hope
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V.P. Joe Biden
Promises to Keep
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Former Rep. Ron Paul
End the Fed
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Former Pres. George W. Bush
Decision Points
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Former Gov. Sarah Palin (R, AK)
America By Heart
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Secy. of State Hillary Clinton
Living History
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Former Pres. Bill Clinton
My Life
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Gov. Jesse Ventura
American Conspiracies
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Book Reviews & Excerpts
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(click a book cover for excerpts and a review or other books by or about the presidency from Amazon.com)
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Fun Stuff |
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IFFY Awards: Oct. 30, 2018
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OnTheIssues disendorsements for candidates who refuse to take issue stances
OnTheIssues condemns candidates with an "IFFY Award" for running an "Issue-Free campaign." These are "iffy" candidates because they refused to provide voters with information on what they believe and how they will legislate. They are likely to be "iffy legislators" too -- never providing their constituents with information, on the belief that the less voters know, the more likely the "iffy" candidates are to get re-elected.
An IFFY award is a non-partisan condemnation: OnTheIssues doesn't care WHAT candidates' issue stances are -- as long as they HAVE issue stances!
At OnTheIssues, we believe that candidates should make clear their issue stances, and if they don't do that, then they should not run for office at all, and if they get elected and still won't divulge their issue stances, that they should resign or be driven from office by outraged constituents. Following are our three "iffy" candidates for 2018:
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- NBC-10-TV reports that Fung avoided all primary debates:
"The two favorite contenders for the major party’s nominations are refusing to appear in any of the offered statewide forums.
'It’s not OK in a democracy,' NBC 10's political analyst said. 'Avoiding debates might rub voters the wrong way and they might just end up staying home in the general election.' "
- During the general election debate, the Providence Journal reported that Fung's independent opponent Joe Trillo brought up the IFFY issue:
"Trillo saved his most colorful exchanges for Fung, whom he called 'wimpy' for not taking positions on issues."
- OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Mayor Fung since 2014, when he also ran for Governor (and also provided few issue stances). Mayor Fung has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
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- KGOU's Trevor Brown reported that the sole one-hour debate on Sept. 24 "waded into social issues,
including abortion, parental rights and gun control. Neither candidate, however, seemed to want to press these issues as campaign focal points."
- Edmondson's opponent, however, has made public his stances on those three issues (and more), while Edmondson has not.
- OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Edmondson all campaign season. Edmondson has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
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- Project VoteSmart reprots, "Chele Farley has refused to provide voters with positions on key issues covered by the 2018 Political Courage Test, despite repeated requests from Vote Smart and voters like you."
- The Auburn Citizen commented that "In her campaign launch video... Farley blamed Gillibrand, a Democrat, for the state not getting its fair share from the federal government.... There wasn't much revealed in the video about Farley's platform."
- Farley has continued that lack of platform throughout the campaign, running on a platform of Gillibrand's failings.
- OnTheIssues has been attempting to gather issue stances from Farley all campaign season. Farley has declined to respond to our VoteMatch quiz repeatedly.
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Source: See past IFFY disendorsements with links to candidates' issue stances.
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House election prediction: Oct. 24, 2018
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Predictions in four House races: two GOP victories; two Democratic victories
OnTheIssues makes four predictions in House races for the four districts for which we have web pages for both nominees.
(for most House districts, we only cover the incumbent).
- We predict races based on the relative number of viewers of the candidates' pages on our website.
- This "polling" method indicates interest in the issue stances of the candidates, which serves as a proxy for voting for candidates.
- Downsides of this prediction method include:
- - We don't count whether the website viewer actually resides in the district or is registered to vote
- - Interest in the issue stances of a candidate could mean negative interest as well as positive interest
- - Reading about a candidate doesn't necessarily translate into voting for a candidate
- Upsides of this prediction method include:
- - This method would have predicted Trump in the 2016 presidential election when most polls predicted Hillary would win.
- - Pundits have trouble predicting the 2018 election because hinges on "voter enthusiasm" -- but so does reading our website!
- - Internet viewership correlates with youth, which in most elections vote poorly, but are predicted to vote highly in 2018.
- Some details of our methodology:
- We count only "unique pageviews", which means one "vote" per person for the entire duration of our "poll".
- For our House predictions, we count the "viewership score" (number of unique people) from Oct. 1 through Oct. 24 (but if the outcome prediction changes in the next week, we'll report that!)
- For our upcoming Gubernatorial and Senatorial predictions, we will count the "viewership score" from Oct. 1 through Oct. 31 (a full month).
House district and analysis: | Predicted winner and loser, and OnTheIssues viewership scores: |
Alabama 2nd district:
- Republican incumbent running for re-election.
- The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2009-2011 and lost re-election in November 2010 to the current Republican incumbent.
- In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in this district, 65-33. Results were similarly lopsided in the previous four presidential elections.
- We predict an overwhelming Republican victory in this district.
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Hawaii 1st district:
- Democratic incumbent Colleen Hanabusa running for Governor in 2018.
- The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in Hawaii's 2nd district from 2002-2007 and ran for Senate (and lost) in November 2006.
- The Republican nominee served in the Hawaii House and has been the Republican nominee for Senate three times, most recently in the 2014 Senate race.
- In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 63-30. Results were similarly lopsided in 2000 through 2012.
- We predict a Democratic victory in this district.
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Nevada 4th district:
- Democratic incumbent Ruben Kihuen retiring in 2018.
- The Republican nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2015-2017 and lost re-election in November 2016 to the current Democratic incumbent.
- The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in this district from 2013-2015 and lost re-election in November 2014 to the current Republican nominee.
- In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 50-45. Results were similar in 2012, favoring Obama over Romney.
- We predict a Republican victory in this district, despite its Democratic history.
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Pennsylvania 17th district:
- This district had its borders redrawn in court-ordered redistricting during 2018, because of gerrymandering in the previous elections.
- Hence both nominees are incumbents in neighboring districts, but many districts will shift around after the November election.
- The Democratic nominee served in the U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 18th district since the special election in 2018.
- The Republican nominee served in the U.S. House in Pennsylvania's 12th district since the general election in 2012.
- In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in this district, 54-43. But in 2012, Obama beat Romney 55-43.
- We predict a very close Democratic victory in this district.
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Source: Google Analytics and OnTheIssues analysis.
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Primary election results: Sept. 11-13, 2018
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Nominees decided in NH, RI, and NY
State primary on Sept. 11th-13th: | Winners and losers and notes: |
New York Gubernatorial primaries: Thursday, Sept. 13
(Democratic incumbent running for re-election)
The New York primary system allows candidates to run on multiple party lines;
Cynthia Nixon lost on the Democratic Party line but won on the Working Families Party line. | | Rhode Island Gubernatorial primaries: Wednesday, Sept. 12
(Democratic incumbent running for re-election) | | New Hampshire Gubernatorial primaries: Tuesday, Sept. 11
(Incumbent Republican running for re-election) | |
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from New Hampshire gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Massachusetts primary election results: Sept. 4-5, 2018
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Nominees decided for Governor, Senate, and House, plus AZ
State primary on Saturday Sept. 4th-5th: | Winners and losers and notes: |
Massachusetts 7th district House primaries:
(Incumbent Democrat running for re-election; no Republican filed) | | Massachusetts Gubernatorial primaries:
(Incumbent Republican running for re-election) | | Massachusetts Senatorial primaries:
(Incumbent Democrat running for re-election) | | Arizona Senatorial succession: (Sept. 5)
(Incumbent Republican John_McCain passed away Aug. 25th) | |
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Massachusetts gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: Aug. 28, 2018
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Nominees decided in FL and AZ
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Florida gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: Aug. 21, 2018
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Nominees decided in AK and WY
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Alaska gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Hawaii primary election results: August 11, 2018
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Nominees decided for Governor, Senate, and House
State primary on Saturday Aug. 11th: | Winners and losers and notes: |
Hawaii Gubernatorial primaries:
(Incumbent Democrat running for re-election) | | Hawaii Senatorial primaries:
(Incumbent Democrat running for re-election) | | Hawaii House primaries:
(Incumbent Colleen Hanabusa running instead for Governor) | |
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Hawaii gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: Aug.7, 2018
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Nominees decided in KS, MI, MO, and WA
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Kansas gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: July 17 to Aug. 2, 2018
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Nominees decided in AL, NC, GA, and TN
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Tennessee gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: June 26, 2018
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Nominees decided in CO, MD, MS, NY, OK, and UT
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Colorado gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: June 12, 2018
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Nominees decided in ME, ND, NV, SC, and VA
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from South Carolina gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: June 5, 2018
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Nominees decided in AL, CA, IA, MS, MT, NJ, NM, and SD
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from California gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: May 22, 2018
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Nominees decided in AR, GA, KY, and TX
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Georgia gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: May 15, 2018
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Nominees decided in PA, NE, ID, and OR
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from Pennsylvania gubernatorial debates with links to other states.
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Primary election results: May 8, 2018
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Nominees decided in OH, IN, WV, and NC
Source: Numerous news sources; see excerpts from West Virginia senate debates with links to other states.
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Special election in Pennsylvania: March 13, 2018
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Conor Lamb (D) beats Rick Saccone (R) in 18th district
A special election was held in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional district:
- Oct. 5, 2017: Incumbent Rep. Tim Murphy( R) announced his resignation over sexual misconduct charges.
- Oct. 21, 2017: Governor Tom Wolf (D), upon Murphy's exit, set the date for a special election for March 13, 2018
- Nov. 11, 2017: Republicans nominate State Rep. Rick Saccone (R), over State Senator Guy Reschenthaler and State Senator Kim Ward.
- Nov. 19, 2017: Democrats nominate Conor Lamb (D), over Westmoreland County Commissioner Gina Cerilli and former Assistant Department of Veterans Affairs Secretary Pam Iovino.
- March 13, 2018: Conor Lamb (D) wins the special election.
March 15, 2018: Due to redistricting ordered by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to undo gerrymandering, this district and neighboring districts all have their borders redrawn, including...
- 14th district: After losing a close race in the 18th district, Rick Saccone (R) will run in Pennsylvania's 14th district, against State Senator Guy Reschenthaler (R).
- 17th district: Two incumbents will face each other: Rep. Keith Rothfus (R, PA-17) vs. Rep. Conor Lamb (D, PA-18)
- 18th district: Neighboring district incumbent Michael Doyle (D, PA-14) will run in the 18th district against Janis Brooks (R).
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Source: Numerous news sources and Ballotpedia info on PA-14, PA-17, and PA-18 districts.
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State of the State speeches: Feb. 8, 2018
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Excerpts from seven governors' speeches, Jan. 9th - Feb. 8th
Every governor makes a State of the State speech annually, including both outgoing and incoming governors.
These occur sometime in January and March; we work to excerpt all 50 states, starting with these:
Source: See State of the State transcripts and additional 2018 OnTheIssues excerpts of State of the State speeches.
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State of the Union speech: Jan. 30, 2018
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President Trump's first official SOTU, plus the Democratic Party response
Highlights from Pres. Trump's SOTU speech:
- Immigration: Close deadly loopholes that allow in gangs like MS-13.
- Health Care: The cruel ObamaCare individual mandate is gone.
- Tax Reform: Doubled standard deduction for all; average $2000 tax cut.
Highlights from Rep. Joe Kennedy's Democratic response:
- Immigration: Build a wall and my generation will tear it down.
- Welfare & Poverty: The world's greatest nation shouldn't leave anyone behind.
- Civil Rights: Don't measure worth by the gender of your spouse.
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Source: Full SOTU excerpts from official transcripts.
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Smith & Jones, two new Senators, sworn in: Jan. 3, 2018
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Results of special election in Alabama; and resignation in Minnesota
Two new Senators were sworn in this week:
Alabama:
- Jan. 3, 2018: Doug Jones (D-AL) sworn in as United States Senator
- Dec. 12, 2017: Sheriff Roy Moore (R-AL) loses special Senate election to Doug Jones.
- Sept. 26, 2017: Attorney General Luther Strange (R-AL) loses GOP primary election to Roy Moore.
- Feb. 9, 2017: Gov. Robert J. Bentley (R-AL) appoints Luther Strange to fill Jeff Sessions' seat.
- Nov. 18, 2016: Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) appointed as United States Attorney General.
Minnesota:
- Jan. 3, 2018: Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (DFL-MN) sworn in as United States Senator
- Dec. 18, 2017: Gov. Mark Dayton (DFL-MN) appoints Tina Smith as interim Senator.
- Dec. 7, 2017: Senator Al Franken (DFL-MN) resigns under allegations of sexual misconduct.
Next elections:
- Senator Jones will face re-election in 2020 (his term is three years, because he is filling the remaining term of Sen. Sessions)
- Senator Smith will face re-election in 2018 (her term is "interim", because she is appointed, like Luther Strange was in Alabama.
The winner of the 2018 election will serve for two years, until what would have been the end of term for Sen. Franken).
- We refer to Tina Smith's upcoming election in 2018 as "MN-2" for the Minnesota two-year Senate term,
in contrast to "MN-6", the normal Minnesota six-year Senate term, which will both occur in the same election.
In other words, Minnesota has TWO Senate elections at once in November 2018, which only occurs after resignations.
- Alabama didn't end up with two elections at once because the other Alabama Senator's term happens to end in 2022.
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Source: Numerous news sources; see Senate membership roster for other resignations and retirements.
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Three Congressional resignations: Dec. 5-8, 2017
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One Senator and two Congressmen resign over sexual harassment accusations
Three members of Congress resigned this week; following is the status of how they will get replaced.
- Dec. 8:
Congressman Trent Franks (R-AZ-8) resigned, effective immediately.
Governor Doug Ducey (R-AZ) will set the date for a special election.
(AZ law requires a special election because Rep. Franks resigned more than 6 months before the next scheduled election in Nov. 2018)
- Dec. 7:
Senator Al Franken (D-MN) resigned, effective "in the coming weeks".
Governor Mark Dayton (D-MN) will appoint an interim Senator until a special election is held in Nov. 2018.
(Federal law requires that the governor appoint to fill Senate vacancies; then a special election in Nov. 2018 will fill the vacant seat from 2018 until the regularly-scheduled election in Nov. 2020)
- Dec. 5:
Congressman John Conyers (D-MI-13) resigned, effective immediately.
Governor Rick Snyder (R-MI) opted to keep the House seat vacant for 11 months, until Nov. 2018.
(MI law allows for a special election anytime between now and the next election; Snyder chose the special election date to coincide with the general election date in Nov. 2018)
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Source: Numerous news sources; see House membership roster and Senate membership roster for eventual replacements.
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