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on China |
| By: | Pierre Azoulay; Shumin Qiu; Claudia Steinwender |
| Abstract: | We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China's trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China's apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China's scientific dominance. |
| Keywords: | home bias, China, citations, economics of science, basic research, international spillovers |
| Date: | 2025–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2072 |
| By: | Francisco Cabrera-Hernandez (Department of Economics, CIDE); Mateo Hoyos (Department of Economics, CIDE); Emmanuel Chavez (Department of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of import competition on educational attainment in Mexico, emphasizing its effects through labor market dynamics. Using China's entry into global trade markets as a source of exogenous variation, we implement a shift-share approach to measure regional exposure to Chinese imports and employ a staggered difference-in-differences estimation strategy—marking a novel contribution to the China Shock literature. Our analysis reveals that import competition negatively affected educational outcomes, increasing dropout rates and the proportion of students falling behind their normative grade. These outcomes were accompanied by sustained wage declines, particularly in the secondary and tertiary sectors. We identify a significant decline in the returns to schooling as the primary mechanism explaining the adverse educational effects. Our findings offer novel empirical evidence linking import competition to reduced returns to schooling. |
| Keywords: | China Shock, import competition, educational attainment, returns to schooling |
| JEL: | F14 F16 I25 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte645 |
| By: | Yang, Tianli (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | The Chinese government announced the pilot of public long-term care insurance (LTCI) policy in 2016. While most studies focus on LTCI's effects on labor supply and retirement behavior, its effect on retirement intentions, which offer certain advantages over actual behavior, remains unclear. This study applies the difference-in-differences design to estimate the effect of LTCI on urban workers' retirement intentions based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. The results indicate that LTCI significantly increases the probability of intentions to delay retirement and intended retirement age, especially for the LTCI providing both service and cash benefits. Moreover, the effects are larger and more significant among subgroups, including women, self-employed workers and workers' family members with LTCI eligibility, as these sub-samples are more likely to be caregivers and caregivers' effect is larger. Mechanism analysis reveals that LTCI reduces time support within the family and improves mental health, both of which contribute to delayed retirement intentions. The negative effect of mitigating precautionary saving motives caused by LTCI also exists but subtler. Overall, these empirical evidences support that LTCI helps shape workers' retirement intentions. |
| Keywords: | long-term care insurance, retirement intentions, difference-in-differences, China |
| JEL: | H55 I28 J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17642 |
| By: | Rafael Queiroz Pinheiro; Alexandre Jose Germano De Abreu |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the process of deindustrialization in Latin America and the impact of China on this process. After discussing the main theoretical explanations for premature deindustrialization and presenting some empirical data on the process of deindustrialization in Latin America, this paper undertakes a novel panel data analysis to provide greater clarification on the role of China in the early deindustrialization process of Latin American countries. The findings suggest that the import of manufactured goods from China does not have a significant effect on manufacturing employment and is in fact associated with an increase, not a decrease, in the share of manufacturing value added. On the other hand, exports to China are negatively associated in this sample with the share of both manufacturing employment and manufacturing value added. This supports the view that trade with China may be a part of the explanation for deindustrialization, not through competition from Chinese manufacturers but rather through the impact on the competitiveness of primary exports and exchange rate appreciation, and that that one of the most relevant factors for deindustrialization in Latin America is related to the Dutch disease. |
| Keywords: | Industrialization; Deindustrialization; International Trade; South-South Cooperation; Economic complexity. |
| JEL: | F16 F14 O14 O54 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03672025 |
| By: | Mostafa R. Sarkandiz |
| Abstract: | The present study attempts to investigate the demographic dividend phenomenon in China. For this goal, a socio-economic approach has been used to analyze the topic from 1995 to 2019. In contrast to common belief, the outcomes revealed that China is still benefiting from a demographic dividend. However, due to the accelerated population aging trend and the increasing share of government expenditure on the public pension system, the window opportunity has yet to close. Furthermore, concerning the absolute value of estimated coefficients, the employment rate of young people in the age bundle of [15, 24] has the highest impact on decreasing government expenditure. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.12144 |
| By: | Albert Park (Economic Research and Development Impact Department (ERDI), Asian Development Bank); Yasuyuki Sawada (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Menghan Shen (School of Government, Sun Yatsen University); Sangui Wang (China Institute of Poverty Alleviation, Renmin University of China); Heng Wang (School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China); Ze Wang (The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the impact of having a mentally disordered peer on middle school students’ social preferences after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China. Using random classroom assignments, height-based seating arrangements, and lab-inthe-field experiments such as dictator and public goods games, the study has found that having a disabled peer significantly enhances altruistic behavior, driven largely by empathy among students with shared traumatic experiences. These findings highlight how peer effects in post-disaster contexts foster social cohesion and prosocial behaviors, reflecting a self-recovery mechanism inherent in human nature that may mitigate secondary trauma and improve welfare. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2025cf1239 |
| By: | Liao, Yuxi; Huang, Kaixing |
| Abstract: | Algorithm-powered short videos, which leverage advanced algorithms and recommendation systems to analyze user preferences, have emerged as a dominant force in digital media. By comparing individuals before and after their exposure to short videos, this study provides causal evidence that short videos have increased employment, mainly part-time jobs, by 7.5% in China. A larger increase in employment is observed among marginalized groups with lower education levels and lower incomes, those from rural areas, and mothers with young children. We also observe that being exposed to short videos significantly reduces individual mental health, plausibly as a side effect of allocating more time to work and less time to sleep and exercise. We do not find a significant difference in the impact on mental health across population groups, suggesting an unbalanced welfare impact favoring marginalized groups. Finally, we find that reducing the frequency of short video consumption could substantially reduce the damage to mental health while maintaining most of the positive effects on employment. |
| Keywords: | Short videos; Socioeconomic outcomes; Mental Health; Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | I12 L82 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–01–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123477 |
| By: | Di Gong (University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) - School of Banking and Finance); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Shusen Qi (Xiamen University) |
| Abstract: | Firms switching banks initially receive a lower loan rate. But what if firms switch branches within the same bank? Studying the population of corporate loans originated by a large commercial bank in China from 2010 to 2020, we find that when firms switch branches, the switching loans carry a significantly lower spread than the comparable nonswitching loans as well. After switching, the new branch further reduces the loan spreads initially, but ratchets it up afterwards, surprising evidence of the existence of intra-bank holdup ! Importantly, the deployment of FinTech within the bank first mitigates but then intensifies this holdup. |
| Keywords: | bank lending, hold-up, firm-bank relationship |
| JEL: | G21 G32 L14 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2510 |
| By: | Han Qiu; Hyun Song Shin; Leanne Si Ying Zhang |
| Abstract: | The latest firm-level network data reveal that global value chains have lengthened, although without the accompanying network densification that might indicate that supplier relationships are diversifying. Lengthening of supply chains is especially significant for supplier-customer linkages from China to the United States, where firms from other jurisdictions, notably in Asia, have interposed themselves in the supply chain. Nevertheless, these recent developments have not so far reversed the long-running trend toward greater regional integration of trade in recent decades, especially in Asia. |
| Date: | 2023–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:78 |
| By: | Jaecheol Lee; Andrew J. Wilson; Solomon M. Hsiang |
| Abstract: | Particulate matter (PM) is a major, clinically important air pollutant. A large portion of emitted PM crosses borders, damaging health outside of its originating jurisdiction, but due in part to technical obstacles these pollutant flows remain unregulated. Proposed attribution approaches assume that units of PM originating in different jurisdictions cause the same harm, despite a widespread understanding that differing chemical and physical features of PM could generate distinct health effects. We use an atmospheric model to decompose the origins of PM individuals are exposed to at each location in South Korea, the nexus of one of the world's most contentious transboundary air pollution disputes, every day during 2005–2016. We then link these data to universal healthcare records in an econometric analysis that simultaneously measures and accounts for harms from seven types of PM, each from a distinct origin. We discover that the health harm of a unit of transboundary PM is approximately 5× (North Korea) and 2.6× (China) greater than a unit of PM originating within South Korea, and that health responses to PM from natural sources differs from those to anthropogenic sources. Because harms differ by origin, we compute that transboundary sources contribute only 43% of anthropogenic PM exposure in South Korea but generate over 70% of its associated respiratory health costs. Our results suggest that PM should be treated as a mixture of distinct pollutants, each with a unique measurable impact on human health. |
| JEL: | C80 F18 H51 H79 H87 I1 I18 Q52 Q53 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33379 |
| By: | Zong, Xiaoxue; Huang, Kaixing; Ji, Xi |
| Abstract: | Land use policy is crucial for food security and ecological protection. This study explores the impact of the world’s largest Grain for Green Program, which subsidizes more than 100 million farmers to convert sloped cropland to forests and grasslands, on crop productivity in China. By combining detailed county-level crop production data with remote sensing data, our difference-in-differences estimates suggest that while the program significantly reduced total cropland area, it led to an increase in total crop yield. The unexpected yield impact can be explained by the fact that the program significantly increased labor input and multiple cropping in the remaining cropland. More importantly, we find that the program substantially reduced the damage of drought and extreme heat on crop yield. Our findings suggest the possibility of adopting land use policy to protect the ecology without compromising food security in a developing country. |
| Keywords: | land use, food security, ecological protection, climate shocks, Grain for Green |
| JEL: | J43 Q15 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–01–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123478 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Hong Kong SAR’s economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following a protracted period of shocks. While the unemployment rate has declined to historical lows, employment loss has been sizable and domestic demand has remained weak amid tight financial conditions and property market downturn, both locally and in Mainland China. The territory’s integration with Mainland China, including in the context of the Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative, has significantly increased in recent years, but rising regional competition has put pressure on some of its traditional growth engines, prompting the authorities to pursue new sources of growth, including from innovative, technology-driven sectors. |
| Date: | 2025–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/015 |
| By: | Ana Aguilar; Julian Caballero; Jon Frost; Alejandro Parada |
| Abstract: | After decades of deepening economic integration, trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions have recently disrupted global trade patterns (IMF (2023a, 2023b), Qiu et al (2024)). Tariffs and non-tariff measures on goods and investment, and threats of further measures, have increased economic and trade policy uncertainty (Graph 1.A). While the focus is on tensions between the United States and China, restrictions on imports and investment have risen globally, particularly after the Covid-19 pandemic (Graph 1.B). |
| Date: | 2024–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:94 |
| By: | Emeline Bezin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Bastien Chabé-Ferret (Middlesex University); David de la Croix (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain) |
| Abstract: | Fertility becomes a strategic choice for minorities when having a larger share of the population helps to increase power. If parents invest resources to educate their children, then raising fertility for strategic reasons might be at the cost of future human capital. We dispel this view using census data from several developing countries. We show that religious and ethnic minorities in Indonesia, China, and Malaysia tend to invest more in both education and fertility compared to larger groups. Solving for the Nash equilibrium of an appropriation game between two groups with education and fertility being prescribed as group-specific behavioral norms, we offer a rationale for the observed patterns provided that human capital is an important input to appropriation. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Nash equilibrium, Indonesia, Fertility, Quality-quantity trade-off, Minorities, Conflict, Population engineering |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04877862 |