Abstract.
The persistence of Influenza A in the human population relies on continual changes in the viral surface antigens allowing the virus to reinfect the same hosts every few years. The epidemiology of such a drifting virus is modeled by a discrete season-to-season map. During the epidemic season only one strain is present and its transmission dynamics follows a standard epidemic model. After the season, cross-immunity to next year's virus is determined from the proportion of hosts that were infected during the season. A partial analysis of this map shows the existence of oscillations where epidemics occur at regular or irregular intervals.
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Received: 16 February 2001 / Revised version: 11 June 2002 / Published online: 28 February 2003
Key words or phrases: Infectious disease – Influenza drift – Cross-immunity – Seasonal epidemics – Iterated map
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Andreasen, V. Dynamics of annual influenza A epidemics with immuno-selection. J. Math. Biol. 46, 504–536 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-002-0186-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-002-0186-2