Recent Improvements to IERS Bulletin A Combination and Prediction

Driven by a need for increased accuracy in real-time Earth orientation parameters (EOPs), the Bulletin A (Rapid Servce and Predictions) of the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) has recently made several major changes to its combination and prediction procedures. Changes to the process ob combining multi-technique results include creation of a daily Bulletin A updata, inclusion of several new data sets, and use of polar motion rantes for the latest epoch. Notably, the contributions from GPS observations have grown steadily in significance, both for polar motion and Universal Time (UT1). The prediction procedure has, in turn, benefited from these changes as well as improvements to the polar motion prediction model. As a result, demanding real-time applications, such as for satellite orbit extrapolations should observe a major improvement in the accuracy of our real-time EOP products. All results, together with supporting and diagnostic information, are available at the website http://maia.usno.navy.mil.

The maximum EOP errors (root-mean-squared sense) that a real-time user would experience using the latest available update of Bulletin A are currently estimated to be ∼0.9 milliarcseconds (mas) for polar motion and ∼0.15 milliseconds (ms) for UT1-UTC. The data latency (the lag since the most recent observations) for EOP predictions need not exceed ∼41 hours for users who avail themselves of the daily updates. Over the past four years, the accuracy for real-time applications has improved by nearly a factor of 4 in polar motion and a factor of 10 in UT1. This is primarily due to the large reduction in data latency, which in turn is mostly possible due to the Rapid product delivery of the International GPS Service (IGS) (see Mireault et al, 1999). © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Authors and Affiliations

1. Earth Orientation Department, U. S. Naval Observatory, Washington, DC 20392-5420, US

   Brian J. Luzum, Jim R. Ray, Merri S. Carter & F. Jerry Josties

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