Abstract
A multiscale modeling procedure is proposed with integrating dynamical models and small-world network models to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in Korea, which featured many infections due to aggregation. Two types of dynamical models are founded on a national scale to describe the spreading patterns of the disease and the intervention measures. A small-world network is established on a local scale to illustrate the five serious aggregated infection events. Furthermore, a physics-informed neural network algorithm is employed to solve the dynamical models, incorporating a small-world network random contacting evolution, the numerical simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability Statement
This manuscript has associated data in a data repository. [Authors’ comment: These data were derive from the following resources available in the public domain: (Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency)https://www.kdca.go.kr/index.es?sid=a3.]
References
N. Zhu, D. Zhang, W. Wang, X. Li, B. Yang, J. Song, X. Zhao, B. Huang, W. Shi, R. Lu et al., A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. New Engl. J. Med. (2020)
M. Chang, J. Baek, D. Park, Lessons from South Korea regarding the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak. Healthcare 8, 229 (2020)
J. Jia, J. Ding, S. Liu, G. Liao, J. Li, B. Duan, G. Wang, R. Zhang, Modeling the control of COVID-19: Impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors. Electronic J.Differ. Eqn. 23, 1–24 (2020)
S. Zhao, Q. Lin, J. Ran, S. Musa, G. Yang, W. Wang, Y. Lou, D. Gao, L. Yang, D. He et al., Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 92, 214–217 (2020)
A. Kucharski, T. Russell, C. Diamond, Y. Liu, J. Edmunds, S. Funk, R. Eggo, F. Sun, M. Jit, J. Munday e al., Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect. Dis. 20, 553–558 (2020)
J. Jia, S. Liu, Y. Liu, R. Shan, K. Zennir, R. Zhang, Modeling and reviewing analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic in algeria with diagnostic shadow. CSIAM Trans. Appl. Math. 3, 792–809 (2022)
J. Jia, S. Liu, J. Ding, G. Liao, L. Zhang, R. Zhang, The impact of multilateral imported cases of COVID-19 on the epidemic control in China. Commun. Math. Res. 36, 320–335 (2020)
Y. Liu, A. Gayle, A. Wilder-Smith, J. Rocklv, The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. J. Travel Med. (2020)
T. Yao, J. Qian, W. Zhu, Y. Wang, G. Wang, A systematic review of lopinavir therapy for SARS coronavirus and MERS coronavirus possible reference for coronavirus disease-19 treatment option. J. Med. Virol. 92, 556–563 (2020)
A. Yang, J. Liu, W. Tao, H. Li, The diagnostic and predictive role of NLR, d-NLR and PLR in COVID-19 patients. Int. Immunopharm. 84, 106504 (2020)
H. Kim, H. Hong, S. Yoon, Diagnostic performance of CT and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction for coronavirus disease 2019: a meta-analysis. Radiology (2020)
A. Elmezayen, A. Al-Obaidi, A. ahin, K. Yeleki, Drug repurposing for coronavirus (COVID-19): in silico screening of known drugs against coronavirus 3CL hydrolase and protease enzymes. J. Biomol. Struct. Dyn. 39, 2980–2992 (2021)
R. Yan, Y. Zhang, Y. Li, L. Xia, Y. Guo, Q. Zhou, Structural basis for the recognition of SARS-CoV-2 by full-length human ACE2. Science 367, 1444–1448 (2020)
C. Wang, W. Li, D. Drabek, N. Okba, R. Haperen, A. Osterhaus, F. Kuppeveld, B. Haagmans, F. Grosveld, B. Bosch, A human monoclonal antibody blocking SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nat. Commun. 11, 1–6 (2020)
S. Moghadas, A. Shoukat, M. Fitzpatrick, C. Wells, P. Sah, A. Pandey, J. Sachs, Z. Wang, L. Meyers, B. Singer et al., Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 117, 9122–9126 (2020)
J. Rocklv, H. Sjdin, A. Wilder-Smith, COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures. J. Travel Med. 27, taaa030 (2020)
M. Hashim, A. Alsuwaidi, G. Khan, Population risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in 93 countries. J. Epidemiol. Global Health 10, 204 (2020)
Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. https://www.kdca.go.kr/index.es?sid=a3
A. Amiri Mehra, M. Shafieirad, Z. Abbasi, I. Zamani, Parameter estimation and prediction of COVID-19 epidemic turning point and ending time of a case study on SIR/SQAIR epidemic models. Comput. Math. Methods Med. (2020)
C. Kwuimy, F. Nazari, X. Jiao, P. Rohani, C. Nataraj, Nonlinear dynamic analysis of an epidemiological model for COVID-19 including public behavior and government action. Nonlinear Dyn. 101, 1545–1559 (2020)
S. Kim, Y. Seo, E. Jung, Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes in Korea. Epidemiol. Health 42 (2020)
K. Min, S. Tak, Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment. Epidemiol. Health 43 (2021)
E. Kharazmi, M. Cai, X. Zheng, Z. Zhang, G. Lin, G. Karniadakis, Identifiability and predictability of integer-and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks. Nat. Comput. Sci. 1, 744–753 (2021)
D. Watts, S. Strogatz, Collective dynamics of small-world networks. Nature 393, 440–442 (1998)
P. Driessche, J. Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math. Biosci. 180, 29–48 (2002)
M. Raissi, P. Perdikaris, G. Karniadakis, Physics-informed neural networks: a deep learning framework for solving forward and inverse problems involving nonlinear partial differential equations. J. Comput. Phys. 378, 686–707 (2019)
D. Kingma, J. Ba, Adam: a method for stochastic optimization. ArXiv Preprint ArXiv:1412.6980. (2014)
Acknowledgements
This work was partially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11901234), Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province (Grant Nos. 20210101481JC and 20210101482JC), Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project (Grant No. 2021SHZDZX0103), Natural Science Foundation-Division of Mathematical Sciences (Grant No. 2208499).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Li, Z., Jia, J., Liao, G. et al. Neural network method and multiscale modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea. Eur. Phys. J. Plus 138, 752 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-04373-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-023-04373-8