Papers by Philippe Fargues
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The demographic situation of Lebanon is described and analyzed. After a historical chapter outlin... more The demographic situation of Lebanon is described and analyzed. After a historical chapter outlining the political and demographic evolution of Lebanon from the beginning of the 19th century to the present time the following topics are covered: factors involved in population growth (birthrate and fertility recent trends in fertility regional differences and differences among religious groups); mortality; international emigration and immigration and recent trends; composition of the population (by sex and age family status educational level); regional distribution and internal migrations (urban and rural population urbanization and development of suburban areas); labor force (distribution of the active population by sex and age distribution by economic sectors and professional categories unemployment and underemployment); population projections 1970-2000 (trends for Lebanon and Beirut trends of working and school population dependents); and social and economic aspects of demographic ...
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The International Organization for Migration (IOM), with support from the UK Department for Inter... more The International Organization for Migration (IOM), with support from the UK Department for International Development (DfID), commissioned the Migration Policy Centre (MPC) at the European University Institute (EUI) to carry out this research.
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La situation migratoire autour de la Méditerranée est largement conditionnée par la proximité de ... more La situation migratoire autour de la Méditerranée est largement conditionnée par la proximité de l’Union européenne (UE). L’UE est désormais la première région d’immigration du monde(1). Par le simple fait de leur adhésion et de la richesse qu’elle crée, ses États membres se sont transformés les uns après les autres en pays d’immigration(2). L’attraction s’exerce d’abord sur sa périphérie, si bien que tous ses voisins – sauf la Norvège – ont un solde migratoire négatif avec elle. Cela est vrai des pays accédants (Bulgarie et Roumanie), des pays candidats (Croatie, Macédoine et Turquie), comme des simples pays tiers : la Russie (qui a un solde migratoire positif avec les anciens États de l’URSS, mais négatif avec le reste du monde dont l’UE)(3), l’Ukraine, la Biélorussie, et les pays de la rive sud de la Méditerranée(4). Ces développements sont en général mis en relation avec trois faits : la pression des pays pauvres du Sud en forte croissance démographique, la demande de travail des pays riches du Nord ou du golfe Persique et la baisse tendancielle du coût de transport. Comme nous le verrons, le premier élément doit être relativisé, le second et le troisième, au contraire, dessinent les grandes lignes d’une nouvelle forme de migration qui changera sans doute les rapports entre les nations
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Middle East report (New York, N.Y.)
Large families were the rule 20-30 years ago in the Maghrib and less than ten years ago in the Ma... more Large families were the rule 20-30 years ago in the Maghrib and less than ten years ago in the Mashriq, with couples typically bearing 7-9 children over the course of their reproductive lives. The overall rate of total fertility, however, declined by more than 50% by the beginning of the 1990s. Rates of population growth in all Mediterranean Arab countries have actually started to decline. This stabilization of actual population growth does not, however, mean that the demand for social services will level off. Demand for health and education services increases with the decrease in the number of infants and children per family. In the years ahead, there will also be more jobs to create and houses to build, with additional future costs attributed less to an increase in numbers than to rising aspirations. The author discusses rural-urban and regional differentials in fertility, the political economy of fertility, social change and women's status, the rapid and wide-scale diffusion of formal education, and how demographic change has set the stage for horizontal competition between peers and vertical competition among generations.
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Maghreb, Machrek
Recent changes in marriage patterns in the Muslim Arab world are analyzed. The author notes that ... more Recent changes in marriage patterns in the Muslim Arab world are analyzed. The author notes that the problems posed by the early age at marriage for women, virtually universal marriage, and a surplus of women in the marriage market were traditionally resolved partly by polygyny but primarily by repudiation. Changes over the past 25 years have tended toward a stabilization of marriages and a decline in repudiation of wives.
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The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and its Member States are increasingly ado... more The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and its Member States are increasingly adopting policies and measures aiming at maximizing possible benefits of migration for development. This chapter analyses how ECOWAS Member States engage with their diasporas. It draws on an analysis of United Nations, African Union, ECOWAS and national policies, strategies and regulations on migration, diaspora and development. It finds that in ECOWAS Member States, policy attention to migration and the diaspora is recent, but rapidly increasing. Diaspora-related measures are integrated in the migration policies and strategies that have been/are being developed since 2014 in 14 out of 15 countries. In some cases, diaspora policies were adopted before wider migration policies. Whereas 13 out of 15 States mention diasporans as development actors, they define their possible contributions to development differently. They all mention financial transfers, whereas fewer States mention migrants’ s...
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PubMed, 1989
"The overall downward trend in African mortality is interrupted by recurring epidemics. This arti... more "The overall downward trend in African mortality is interrupted by recurring epidemics. This article investigates the nature of those temporary fluctuations, using cause-of-death data drawn from deaths registered in Bamako [Mali] over an 11-year period. The use of time-series analysis produces findings that can be used in three ways: first, to provide a short-term forecasting tool for public health officials; secondly, to clarify the relationship between the cause of death and exogenous mortality factors, particularly climatic and economic; thirdly, to assist in the analysis of synergies between disease and malnutrition, and intra-household transmission as an aggravating factor contributing to the seriousness of a disease."
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PubMed, Apr 1, 1995
The author explores the reasons why demographers in recent years have paid less attention than pr... more The author explores the reasons why demographers in recent years have paid less attention than previously to questions concerning urbanization, its causes, and consequences. Using the example of urbanization in the Arab countries, the author suggests that demographers have a more useful contribution to make to the study of urbanization at the regional level than at the global level. Particular attention is given to the example of the Egyptian capital, Cairo.
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International Migration Review, Dec 1, 2004
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I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd eBooks, 2015
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RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Nov 5, 2013
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Population and societies, 1990
As recently as 1982 the UN medium population projection for the Maghreb countries of Algeria Moro... more As recently as 1982 the UN medium population projection for the Maghreb countries of Algeria Morocco and Tunisia totalled 131 million in 2025. The same projection repeated 6 years later with revised hypotheses was just 104 million: 27 million fewer more than the present population of Algeria. The 1990 populations of Algeria Morocco and Tunisia respectively were 25.5 million 24.6 million and 7.9 million. The UN projections for 2025 made in 1982 and 1988 respectively were 57.3 and 50.6 million for Algeria 59.9 and 40.1 million for Morocco and 13.6 and 12.9 million for Morocco and 13.6 and 12.9 million for Tunisia. Fertility began to decline in 1965 in Tunisia and 5 years later in Morocco. Algeria in 1970 was near the world record with an average family size of 8.1 children. The Algerian decline began around 1975. Between 1985-87 the total fertility rate dropped from 6.2 to 4.8 children/woman. In 1985 the absolute number of births declined for the 1st time to 764000 from 845000 in 1985. Except for brief time lags the transition has been similar in the 3 countries initiated by a postponement of marriage followed several years later by the appearance of contraception among women over 35 who had achieved their desired family size and later among younger women seeking to space births. The government played an important role in the declines. Tunisia in 1966 developed the 1st family planning program in the arab world. Morocco liberalized access to contraception in 1967 and developed a true population policy in 1976. Algeria developed a population policy only in 1983 but sought to overcome its late start by an exceptionally vigorous program. The 1988 crude birth rates were 33.6/1000 in Algeria 31.4/1000 in Morocco and 27.6/1000 in Tunisia. The total fertility rates in 1977 and 1987 respectively were 7.4 and 4.8 in Algeria 5.9 and 4.6 in Morocco and 5.5 and 4.0 in Tunisia. Contraceptive prevalence rates among married women were 43.9% in Algeria 35.9 in Morocco and 49.8 in Tunisia. The question has been raised whether the fertility decline would be reversed if a fundamentalist Moslem government took power. The increasing educational level of women in all 3 countries suggests that the fertility decline will be permanent. Tunisia the Arab country with the highest female labor force participation rate is the only 1 with a family code giving women equal family rights with men. The potential influence of a fundamentalist government is only 1 of many imponderables likely to influence the future course of fertility.
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Maghreb - Machrek, 2001
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The six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) rank as the third largest migrant-receiving ... more The six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) rank as the third largest migrant-receiving region in the world. They are the largest destination for migrants from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Egypt, Jordan, or Yemen, which are themselves among the largest countries or origin of migrants
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Population and societies, 2016
La Méditerranée est devenue la route migratoire la plus létale au monde depuis le début du XXIe s... more La Méditerranée est devenue la route migratoire la plus létale au monde depuis le début du XXIe siècle, le risque de décès pendant le voyage y est en moyenne de 15 pour mille entre 2000 et 2015. Les réfugiés représentent la majorité des flux les plus récents. Leur proportion est passée de 33 % à 76 % parmi les migrants entrés irrégulièrement en Italie et en Grèce au cours des cinq dernières années. La « crise des réfugiés » se déroule parallèlement à une crise de dépopulation qui menace l’Europe. Les migrations de remplacement pourraient donc faire partie des réponses de l’Europe à sa situation démographique.The Mediterranean has become, in the twenty-first century, the world’s most lethal migratory route, with a 1.5% annual probability of death during the sea crossing between 2000 and 2015. The majority of the most recent migrants are refugees. Their proportion has risen from 33% to 76% among migrants smuggled into Italy and Greece over the last five years. The “refugee crisis” is taking place against a backdrop of a looming population crisis across Europe. Replacement migration might thus be one of the solutions to Europe’s demographic predicament
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Payot eBooks, 2005
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Papers by Philippe Fargues