International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2019
In this study, the validity of the Linder Hypothesis has been tested based on export and import i... more In this study, the validity of the Linder Hypothesis has been tested based on export and import intensity of foreign trade flows between Turkish economy and selected Transition Countries. According to this hypothesis, the more similar the demand structures and per capita income levels of countries, the more they will trade with one another. The hypothesis uses the difference between the per capita income of countries engaged in foreign trade as the main parameter and indicates that a fall in income difference between two countries increases the validity of the Linder hypothesis by increasing the intensity of foreign trade of the countries. The study considers selected Transition Countries having rising share of foreign trade with Turkey during the period 2001-2017 to examine the validity of Linder Hypothesis in the context of foreign trade flows employing Gravity Models that shows "Aggregate Linder Demand Effect" and panel data analysis. Test results does not support Linde...
Increasing industrial activities trigger the intense use of fossil fuels and increase the number ... more Increasing industrial activities trigger the intense use of fossil fuels and increase the number of carbon emissions in the atmosphere. Countries with a high share in current carbon emissions need to expand their use of renewable energy sources. Canada is an important energy producer and consumer globally. In this regard, its decisions are important for the future development of global emissions. This study examines the asymmetric effects of economic growth, renewable energy, and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions in Canada from 1965 to 2017. In the first stage of the analysis, unit root testing was performed for the variables. For this, Lee-Strazicich (2003), ADF and PP unit root tests were used. The nonlinear ARDL method was used to analyze the relationship between variables. and Measures: In order to analyze the relationship between the variables in the established model, renewable energy consumption (%), non-renewable energy consumption (%), and carbon emission...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2022
While the effect of capital movements on exchange rates is a widely accepted relationship in the ... more While the effect of capital movements on exchange rates is a widely accepted relationship in the relevant literature, there are also findings suggesting that reverse relationships may be valid. Especially in the analysis of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), this issue has started to be discussed more in the literature. In this study, the causality relations between exchange rates and FDI are analyzed within the scope of Turkey example with data covering the period 2005-2021. Causality relationships between variables were investigated by Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. The data used for empirical analysis were obtained from the CBRT-EVDS database. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetric causality test, while the causality relationship from real effective exchange rate to FDI was determined, causality relationship from FDI to real effective exchange rate could not be determined. In terms of the results obtained, it is thought that internal ...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2022
There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause... more There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause structural breaks in foreign trade. As a result of temporary shocks in real exchange rates, the real exchange rate elasticity of imports decreases. The decrease in the sensitivity of the import volume to real exchange rates and the failure to return to its former levels after the temporary shock is expressed as the hysteresis situation. In case the exchange rates return to their previous levels after the temporary shock, the main dynamic of hysteresis is that the firms exhibit the behavior of staying in the market due to sunk costs. In the study, foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy were analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2021Q2 by using the asymmetry hypothesis in order to test the hysteresis effects. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetry hypothesis, the absence of a decrease in the import volume during the period of depreciation of the domestic currency indicates the...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2022
The growing levels of external debt in developing countries are increasingly a worldwide problem,... more The growing levels of external debt in developing countries are increasingly a worldwide problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan African countries, where the expanding portfolio of foreign debts, debt servicing rates, and debt overhang cause alarm and global concern. The likelihood of relatively good outcomes of the interaction between external debt and economic growth is based on the government's attempts to maintain a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio, a low budget deficit, and that the external debt is utilized primarily for capital investments. Under other conditions, the government would confront a circumstance in which accumulated foreign debt levels stifle economic progress, particularly when debt levels rise over time and are poorly managed. In this context, this study aims to examine the association between foreign debt and economic growth in Sub Sahara African countries during the period from 1980 to 2019. The study employed the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression analysis to ...
Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
One of the most important elements of the fight against poverty is social capital. Social capital... more One of the most important elements of the fight against poverty is social capital. Social capital is of critical importance in the fight against poverty because of its ability to activate existing resources in the economic development process of countries and to prevent all resources, opportunities, and, potentials from being idle, especially for the poor. In our study, which aims to analyze the positive effects of social capital on poverty within the scope of new data and samples, analyzes were made within the scope of selected OECD countries RE findings from the econometric analysis indicate that all variables have a positive effect on GDP per capita for the 2012-2019 period in 12 selected countries. In general, our results are consistent with previous studies. The social capital coefficient gives the biggest positive effect on GDP per capita compared to other types of capital. It is important for developing countries to implement policies that increase social capital levels (espe...
İhracata yönelik büyüme hipotezi pek çok kez incelenmiş ve bu konuda başta Uzak Doğu Ülkeleri olm... more İhracata yönelik büyüme hipotezi pek çok kez incelenmiş ve bu konuda başta Uzak Doğu Ülkeleri olmak üzere genellikle destekleyici sonuçların ortaya konulduğu geniş bir literatür oluşmuştur. İlgili literatürde 1990’lı yıllarla birlikte serbest piyasa ekonomisine geçen ve genellikle 2000’li yıllardan itibaren İhracata yönelik büyümeyi hedefleyen politikaları takip eden Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri özelinde ise son derece sınırlı araştırmaların olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada seçilmiş 11 Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkesi için 2010M01-2018M08 dönemi ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme verileri kullanılmakta ve Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) ve Hatemi-J (2011) panel nedensellik analizleri ile ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkileri çerçevesinde araştırılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçlarımız, ülkelerin ihracat ve büyüme potansiyellerine bağlı olarak ihracat bazlı büyüme veya büyüme bazlı ihracat olgularının ülkeler arasında farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymakla birlikte panel grubu ülkelerin geneli için he...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2019, 2019
When the empirical studies in the literature on inflation and interest relation are examined, it ... more When the empirical studies in the literature on inflation and interest relation are examined, it can be seen that a positive or negative change in one of these two variables has a significant effect on the other variable. This situation reveals the necessity of evaluating the relationship between variables within the framework of cause and effect. In this study, the relationship between inflation, interest rates, showing similar macroeconomic structures Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil the country for the period 1985-2018 using annual data sets separately for each country were explained by the VAR model. The results showed only right way for Turkey to reciprocate the nominal rate of inflation variables for Indonesia and Brazil were found bidirectional causality between countries.
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2016, 2016
The term “middle income trap” was firstly used in the World Bank’s Report titled “An East Asian R... more The term “middle income trap” was firstly used in the World Bank’s Report titled “An East Asian Renaissance Ideas for Economic Growth” (2007), which then swiftly gained wide currency. According to this report, some countries that failed to align themselves with the requirements of changes and diversification of 21st century would remain in their respective income bracket. As long as the labor force of a given middle income country is not gradually transferred from the agriculture sector operating with low levels of productivity into the manufacturing sector which produces high added value products thanks to innovation-based practices, it will be losing its competitive edge as compared advanced countries, leading it to reach a plateau at its given level of income. This study is dedicated to determining whether or not Turkey do suffer from middle income trap, and examining the factors responsible for such trap, if they do so. This study also analyzes the primary causes behind middle i...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2019, 2019
This study aims to investigate the stability of unemployment rate in Turkey with the data set cov... more This study aims to investigate the stability of unemployment rate in Turkey with the data set covering approximately a century and starting from 1923. The stability of the unemployment rate is examined the unit root tests, the variance ratio tests and the fractional integration models by following the studies in the literature. Almost all tests and models indicate that the unemployment rate series is not stationary. These findings show that the shocks in the economy and the stabilization policies implemented bring about permanent changes in the natural rate of unemployment. While the unemployment hysteresis leads to increasing costs in reducing inflation, it also reveals the necessity of structural reforms to reduce increased unemployment as a result of inflation control or changes in structural factors. In order to eliminate the impact of this hysteresis on economy, it is necessary to give weight to the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, which in the short term may be costl...
The Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis has important policy implications for countries. Therefore... more The Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis has important policy implications for countries. Therefore it is important to determine the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity. This study investigates the validity of the long run Purchasing Power Parity for selected Latin American countries, in a sample of 4 countries, namely, Brazil, Colombia, Chili and Mexico utilizing Panel unit root tests using monthly data from the period of January 2000 to December 2014. The results show Purchasing Power Parity holds for the selected Latin American Countries. The results show that PPP can be used to determine the equilibrium exchange rate for Brazil, Colombia, Chili and Mexico under this study.
This study aims to analysis the impact of the official announcement of strategies of Fed to exit ... more This study aims to analysis the impact of the official announcement of strategies of Fed to exit from the quantitative easing programs on the currencies of emerging market economies employing event study approach. In this context, daily nominal exchange rate data for the period of 01.09.2012 - 07.04.2014 belonging to selected emerging markets Brazil, India, Hungary, Mexico, South Africa, Philippines, Russia, Thailand and Turkey is used. As a result of the analysis, a statistically significant change was detected between pre-event and post-event sample averages in all countries except Hungary. Accordingly, the Fed's announcement that it will reduce asset purchases resulted in a depreciation in local currencies of investigated emerging markets. These results indicate that Fed's non-traditional monetary policy practices have appeared as a risk factor for global financial markets, particularly in emerging market economies. The countries concerned, therefore, should take necessa...
Bu calismada, Turkiye’ye gelen net dogrudan yabanci sermaye (DYS) yatirimlari ile iktisadi gelism... more Bu calismada, Turkiye’ye gelen net dogrudan yabanci sermaye (DYS) yatirimlari ile iktisadi gelisme arasindaki kisa ve uzun donem iliskileri belirlenmeye calisilmistir. Bu amacla belirlenen modelde yer alan degiskenler; kisi basina gayrisafi yurtici hasila (GSYH), net DYS girisleri ve reel doviz kurudur. 1980-2012 donemi kapsaminda yillik verilerin kullanildigi calismada uzun donem iliskisinin belirlenmesine yonelik Johansen es-butunlesme testi yapilmistir. Es-butunlesme test sonuclarina gore, net DYS girisleri Turkiye’nin uzun donem iktisadi gelisimini pozitif olarak etkilemektedir. Buna gore, net DYS girislerindeki %1’lik bir artis kisi basina GSYH duzeyinde yaklasik olarak %0,985 artisa neden olmaktadir. Kisa donem iliskisinin test edilmesi icin yapilan etki-tepki analizinden elde edilen sonuclara gore, net DYS girislerinin kisi basina GSYH’yi kisa donemde etkilemedigi, buna karsin kisi basina GSYH duzeyinde yasanan bir artisin DYS girislerini artirdigi sonucuna ulasilmistir. Bu s...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2019
In this study, the validity of the Linder Hypothesis has been tested based on export and import i... more In this study, the validity of the Linder Hypothesis has been tested based on export and import intensity of foreign trade flows between Turkish economy and selected Transition Countries. According to this hypothesis, the more similar the demand structures and per capita income levels of countries, the more they will trade with one another. The hypothesis uses the difference between the per capita income of countries engaged in foreign trade as the main parameter and indicates that a fall in income difference between two countries increases the validity of the Linder hypothesis by increasing the intensity of foreign trade of the countries. The study considers selected Transition Countries having rising share of foreign trade with Turkey during the period 2001-2017 to examine the validity of Linder Hypothesis in the context of foreign trade flows employing Gravity Models that shows "Aggregate Linder Demand Effect" and panel data analysis. Test results does not support Linde...
Increasing industrial activities trigger the intense use of fossil fuels and increase the number ... more Increasing industrial activities trigger the intense use of fossil fuels and increase the number of carbon emissions in the atmosphere. Countries with a high share in current carbon emissions need to expand their use of renewable energy sources. Canada is an important energy producer and consumer globally. In this regard, its decisions are important for the future development of global emissions. This study examines the asymmetric effects of economic growth, renewable energy, and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions in Canada from 1965 to 2017. In the first stage of the analysis, unit root testing was performed for the variables. For this, Lee-Strazicich (2003), ADF and PP unit root tests were used. The nonlinear ARDL method was used to analyze the relationship between variables. and Measures: In order to analyze the relationship between the variables in the established model, renewable energy consumption (%), non-renewable energy consumption (%), and carbon emission...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2022
While the effect of capital movements on exchange rates is a widely accepted relationship in the ... more While the effect of capital movements on exchange rates is a widely accepted relationship in the relevant literature, there are also findings suggesting that reverse relationships may be valid. Especially in the analysis of the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), this issue has started to be discussed more in the literature. In this study, the causality relations between exchange rates and FDI are analyzed within the scope of Turkey example with data covering the period 2005-2021. Causality relationships between variables were investigated by Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. The data used for empirical analysis were obtained from the CBRT-EVDS database. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetric causality test, while the causality relationship from real effective exchange rate to FDI was determined, causality relationship from FDI to real effective exchange rate could not be determined. In terms of the results obtained, it is thought that internal ...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2022
There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause... more There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause structural breaks in foreign trade. As a result of temporary shocks in real exchange rates, the real exchange rate elasticity of imports decreases. The decrease in the sensitivity of the import volume to real exchange rates and the failure to return to its former levels after the temporary shock is expressed as the hysteresis situation. In case the exchange rates return to their previous levels after the temporary shock, the main dynamic of hysteresis is that the firms exhibit the behavior of staying in the market due to sunk costs. In the study, foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy were analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2021Q2 by using the asymmetry hypothesis in order to test the hysteresis effects. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetry hypothesis, the absence of a decrease in the import volume during the period of depreciation of the domestic currency indicates the...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2022
The growing levels of external debt in developing countries are increasingly a worldwide problem,... more The growing levels of external debt in developing countries are increasingly a worldwide problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan African countries, where the expanding portfolio of foreign debts, debt servicing rates, and debt overhang cause alarm and global concern. The likelihood of relatively good outcomes of the interaction between external debt and economic growth is based on the government's attempts to maintain a sustainable debt-to-GDP ratio, a low budget deficit, and that the external debt is utilized primarily for capital investments. Under other conditions, the government would confront a circumstance in which accumulated foreign debt levels stifle economic progress, particularly when debt levels rise over time and are poorly managed. In this context, this study aims to examine the association between foreign debt and economic growth in Sub Sahara African countries during the period from 1980 to 2019. The study employed the Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression analysis to ...
Çukurova Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
One of the most important elements of the fight against poverty is social capital. Social capital... more One of the most important elements of the fight against poverty is social capital. Social capital is of critical importance in the fight against poverty because of its ability to activate existing resources in the economic development process of countries and to prevent all resources, opportunities, and, potentials from being idle, especially for the poor. In our study, which aims to analyze the positive effects of social capital on poverty within the scope of new data and samples, analyzes were made within the scope of selected OECD countries RE findings from the econometric analysis indicate that all variables have a positive effect on GDP per capita for the 2012-2019 period in 12 selected countries. In general, our results are consistent with previous studies. The social capital coefficient gives the biggest positive effect on GDP per capita compared to other types of capital. It is important for developing countries to implement policies that increase social capital levels (espe...
İhracata yönelik büyüme hipotezi pek çok kez incelenmiş ve bu konuda başta Uzak Doğu Ülkeleri olm... more İhracata yönelik büyüme hipotezi pek çok kez incelenmiş ve bu konuda başta Uzak Doğu Ülkeleri olmak üzere genellikle destekleyici sonuçların ortaya konulduğu geniş bir literatür oluşmuştur. İlgili literatürde 1990’lı yıllarla birlikte serbest piyasa ekonomisine geçen ve genellikle 2000’li yıllardan itibaren İhracata yönelik büyümeyi hedefleyen politikaları takip eden Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri özelinde ise son derece sınırlı araştırmaların olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada seçilmiş 11 Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkesi için 2010M01-2018M08 dönemi ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme verileri kullanılmakta ve Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) ve Hatemi-J (2011) panel nedensellik analizleri ile ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkileri çerçevesinde araştırılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçlarımız, ülkelerin ihracat ve büyüme potansiyellerine bağlı olarak ihracat bazlı büyüme veya büyüme bazlı ihracat olgularının ülkeler arasında farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymakla birlikte panel grubu ülkelerin geneli için he...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2019, 2019
When the empirical studies in the literature on inflation and interest relation are examined, it ... more When the empirical studies in the literature on inflation and interest relation are examined, it can be seen that a positive or negative change in one of these two variables has a significant effect on the other variable. This situation reveals the necessity of evaluating the relationship between variables within the framework of cause and effect. In this study, the relationship between inflation, interest rates, showing similar macroeconomic structures Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil the country for the period 1985-2018 using annual data sets separately for each country were explained by the VAR model. The results showed only right way for Turkey to reciprocate the nominal rate of inflation variables for Indonesia and Brazil were found bidirectional causality between countries.
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2016, 2016
The term “middle income trap” was firstly used in the World Bank’s Report titled “An East Asian R... more The term “middle income trap” was firstly used in the World Bank’s Report titled “An East Asian Renaissance Ideas for Economic Growth” (2007), which then swiftly gained wide currency. According to this report, some countries that failed to align themselves with the requirements of changes and diversification of 21st century would remain in their respective income bracket. As long as the labor force of a given middle income country is not gradually transferred from the agriculture sector operating with low levels of productivity into the manufacturing sector which produces high added value products thanks to innovation-based practices, it will be losing its competitive edge as compared advanced countries, leading it to reach a plateau at its given level of income. This study is dedicated to determining whether or not Turkey do suffer from middle income trap, and examining the factors responsible for such trap, if they do so. This study also analyzes the primary causes behind middle i...
International Conference on Eurasian Economies 2019, 2019
This study aims to investigate the stability of unemployment rate in Turkey with the data set cov... more This study aims to investigate the stability of unemployment rate in Turkey with the data set covering approximately a century and starting from 1923. The stability of the unemployment rate is examined the unit root tests, the variance ratio tests and the fractional integration models by following the studies in the literature. Almost all tests and models indicate that the unemployment rate series is not stationary. These findings show that the shocks in the economy and the stabilization policies implemented bring about permanent changes in the natural rate of unemployment. While the unemployment hysteresis leads to increasing costs in reducing inflation, it also reveals the necessity of structural reforms to reduce increased unemployment as a result of inflation control or changes in structural factors. In order to eliminate the impact of this hysteresis on economy, it is necessary to give weight to the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, which in the short term may be costl...
The Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis has important policy implications for countries. Therefore... more The Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis has important policy implications for countries. Therefore it is important to determine the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity. This study investigates the validity of the long run Purchasing Power Parity for selected Latin American countries, in a sample of 4 countries, namely, Brazil, Colombia, Chili and Mexico utilizing Panel unit root tests using monthly data from the period of January 2000 to December 2014. The results show Purchasing Power Parity holds for the selected Latin American Countries. The results show that PPP can be used to determine the equilibrium exchange rate for Brazil, Colombia, Chili and Mexico under this study.
This study aims to analysis the impact of the official announcement of strategies of Fed to exit ... more This study aims to analysis the impact of the official announcement of strategies of Fed to exit from the quantitative easing programs on the currencies of emerging market economies employing event study approach. In this context, daily nominal exchange rate data for the period of 01.09.2012 - 07.04.2014 belonging to selected emerging markets Brazil, India, Hungary, Mexico, South Africa, Philippines, Russia, Thailand and Turkey is used. As a result of the analysis, a statistically significant change was detected between pre-event and post-event sample averages in all countries except Hungary. Accordingly, the Fed's announcement that it will reduce asset purchases resulted in a depreciation in local currencies of investigated emerging markets. These results indicate that Fed's non-traditional monetary policy practices have appeared as a risk factor for global financial markets, particularly in emerging market economies. The countries concerned, therefore, should take necessa...
Bu calismada, Turkiye’ye gelen net dogrudan yabanci sermaye (DYS) yatirimlari ile iktisadi gelism... more Bu calismada, Turkiye’ye gelen net dogrudan yabanci sermaye (DYS) yatirimlari ile iktisadi gelisme arasindaki kisa ve uzun donem iliskileri belirlenmeye calisilmistir. Bu amacla belirlenen modelde yer alan degiskenler; kisi basina gayrisafi yurtici hasila (GSYH), net DYS girisleri ve reel doviz kurudur. 1980-2012 donemi kapsaminda yillik verilerin kullanildigi calismada uzun donem iliskisinin belirlenmesine yonelik Johansen es-butunlesme testi yapilmistir. Es-butunlesme test sonuclarina gore, net DYS girisleri Turkiye’nin uzun donem iktisadi gelisimini pozitif olarak etkilemektedir. Buna gore, net DYS girislerindeki %1’lik bir artis kisi basina GSYH duzeyinde yaklasik olarak %0,985 artisa neden olmaktadir. Kisa donem iliskisinin test edilmesi icin yapilan etki-tepki analizinden elde edilen sonuclara gore, net DYS girislerinin kisi basina GSYH’yi kisa donemde etkilemedigi, buna karsin kisi basina GSYH duzeyinde yasanan bir artisin DYS girislerini artirdigi sonucuna ulasilmistir. Bu s...
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