Summary The relative economic merits of agriculture, agroforestry and woodlots depend on the bala... more Summary The relative economic merits of agriculture, agroforestry and woodlots depend on the balance of losses in agricultural production and gains from timber production. The merits of these land uses are usually assessed in terms of net present values, and the effects of uncertainty are usually incorporated through sensitivity analyses. Unfortunately, sensitivity analyses often fail to incorporate adequately the probabilities that outcomes will occur, and so can often give misleading results. An alternative procedure to incorporate uncertainty is risk analysis through monte carlo simulation. This procedure is applied to appraise an agroforestry investment in South Australia and to compare it to agriculture and woodlots. The procedure is assessed against the more usual sensitivity analysis, and the economic merits of the three land uses are compared.
iv Certification vi Table of contents vii List of tables xi List of figures xiii The Adoption of ... more iv Certification vi Table of contents vii List of tables xi List of figures xiii The Adoption of Agricultural Innovations 1 1.
This study was commissioned by the regional water authority to understand shallow groundwater use... more This study was commissioned by the regional water authority to understand shallow groundwater users' expectations, needs and behaviours to inform the development of a new management approach regarding shallow groundwater. Producers' decisions and behaviour in relation to shallow groundwater can be explained and predicted given knowledge of the 'farm context'. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 45 active users of shallow groundwater from across the Shepparton Irrigation Region (SIR). These users had groundwater with varying salinity levels and usage volumes. The interviews were designed to obtain information on how and why groundwater was used, users' attitudes and priorities on groundwater resource management, and their views on the risks associated with salinity management. The interviews revealed factors that were used to construct a farm context tree which classified interviewees into eight user segments. The segments characterised groundwater us...
The adoption of new technologies and practices is fundamental to having the capacity to adapt to ... more The adoption of new technologies and practices is fundamental to having the capacity to adapt to climate change and ameliorate resource degradation. Consequently, having the ability to predict the scale and rate of adoption by farmers of agricultural innovations is central to gauging their adaptive capacity. It is also crucial to assessing the likely compliance of farmers with change-seeking incentives and regulations. In this paper we describe a novel approach to predicting rates of adoption with respect to agricultural technologies and practices drawing on a dual-process model of consumer decision-making and a method for describing the complexity of innovations in farm systems. We tested the approach using data collected through a survey of dairy farmers in the Waikato and Waipa regions of New Zealand. In the survey we asked 200 farmers, chosen at random, about their perceptions of the complexity and relative advantage of various agricultural and resource management practices, and...
Summary The relative economic merits of agriculture, agroforestry and woodlots depend on the bala... more Summary The relative economic merits of agriculture, agroforestry and woodlots depend on the balance of losses in agricultural production and gains from timber production. The merits of these land uses are usually assessed in terms of net present values, and the effects of uncertainty are usually incorporated through sensitivity analyses. Unfortunately, sensitivity analyses often fail to incorporate adequately the probabilities that outcomes will occur, and so can often give misleading results. An alternative procedure to incorporate uncertainty is risk analysis through monte carlo simulation. This procedure is applied to appraise an agroforestry investment in South Australia and to compare it to agriculture and woodlots. The procedure is assessed against the more usual sensitivity analysis, and the economic merits of the three land uses are compared.
iv Certification vi Table of contents vii List of tables xi List of figures xiii The Adoption of ... more iv Certification vi Table of contents vii List of tables xi List of figures xiii The Adoption of Agricultural Innovations 1 1.
This study was commissioned by the regional water authority to understand shallow groundwater use... more This study was commissioned by the regional water authority to understand shallow groundwater users' expectations, needs and behaviours to inform the development of a new management approach regarding shallow groundwater. Producers' decisions and behaviour in relation to shallow groundwater can be explained and predicted given knowledge of the 'farm context'. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 45 active users of shallow groundwater from across the Shepparton Irrigation Region (SIR). These users had groundwater with varying salinity levels and usage volumes. The interviews were designed to obtain information on how and why groundwater was used, users' attitudes and priorities on groundwater resource management, and their views on the risks associated with salinity management. The interviews revealed factors that were used to construct a farm context tree which classified interviewees into eight user segments. The segments characterised groundwater us...
The adoption of new technologies and practices is fundamental to having the capacity to adapt to ... more The adoption of new technologies and practices is fundamental to having the capacity to adapt to climate change and ameliorate resource degradation. Consequently, having the ability to predict the scale and rate of adoption by farmers of agricultural innovations is central to gauging their adaptive capacity. It is also crucial to assessing the likely compliance of farmers with change-seeking incentives and regulations. In this paper we describe a novel approach to predicting rates of adoption with respect to agricultural technologies and practices drawing on a dual-process model of consumer decision-making and a method for describing the complexity of innovations in farm systems. We tested the approach using data collected through a survey of dairy farmers in the Waikato and Waipa regions of New Zealand. In the survey we asked 200 farmers, chosen at random, about their perceptions of the complexity and relative advantage of various agricultural and resource management practices, and...
Technological change and innovation is a fundamental force shaping our lifestyles, our culture an... more Technological change and innovation is a fundamental force shaping our lifestyles, our culture and our future. We devote a substantial proportion of our wealth to research activities that span all areas of society, including agriculture. We make this investment, at least with regard to agricultural research, primarily to create wealth and conserve our natural resources. The return to our investment in agricultural research, the wealth created and the resources conserved depends, in part, on the extent to which primary producers adopt the products of that research. Consequently, maximising the return to our investment in agricultural research involves identifying what research products are likely to be adopted by primary producers and by how many, and determining what processes are required to ensure the diffusion of research products among producers as rapidly as possible. All these depend on an intimate understanding of how the products of research can contribute to better satisfying the needs of primary producers in the conduct of their agricultural enterprises. The case was made in this thesis that established schools of thinking on the adoption behaviour of primary producers do not provide a rigorous, explicit procedure for discovering how innovations can contribute to satisfying the needs of primary producers as managers of agricultural enterprises. As a consequence, policy makers and investors in research and extension have lacked a rigorous method for identifying the population of potential adopters of agricultural innovations. This means policy making and investment in research and extension has sometimes lacked a thoroughly defensible foundation for setting priorities for agricultural research, and for designing and evaluating programs for promoting the adoption of agricultural innovations. The aim in this thesis was to describe a framework for discovering how agricultural innovations contribute to satisfying the needs of primary producers as managers of agricultural enterprises. Meeting this objective required describing a method for properly specifying the population of potential adopters of agricultural innovations. Drawing on consumer behaviour theory and farming systems theory a method was described that was based on the assumption that the adoption of agricultural innovations is a highly involving decision for producers and the hypothesis that the benefits to be had from adopting an agricultural innovation are influenced by particular elements in a farming system that are specific to each innovation. These elements were termed the farm context for an innovation. The method allowed the population of potential adopters to be classified into segments on the basis that producers with different farm contexts obtained different benefits from an agricultural innovation. The method was tested by application in four case studies in which the population of potential adopters of agricultural innovations was estimated through the identification of the farm context. The case studies included intensive irrigated and extensive dryland agricultural industries, cropping and livestock industries, and perennial cropping industries. The case studies covered innovations with different diffusion characteristics ranging from relatively simple and easy-to-trial innovations to innovations that were more complex and difficult to trial. The case studies spanned the four dimensions of farm context (strategic, labour and lifestyle, technology and practice, and biophysical) and illustrated the ways in which the mix of these dimensions in the farm context differs across innovations. The results of the case studies supported the hypothesis and demonstrated that the method for identifying and quantifying the population of potential adopters of an agricultural innovation by identifying the farm contexts for an innovation has merit. The results from the case studies also indicated that the method was generalisable across agricultural industries, innovations that differed in their diffusion characteristics, and the different dimensions of the farm system that shaped the benefits to be had from an innovation.
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Papers by Geoff Kaine
The return to our investment in agricultural research, the wealth created and the resources conserved depends, in part, on the extent to which primary producers adopt the products of that research. Consequently, maximising the return to our investment in agricultural research involves identifying what research products are likely to be adopted by primary producers and by how many, and determining what processes are required to ensure the diffusion of research products among producers as rapidly as possible. All these depend on an intimate understanding of how the products of research can contribute to better satisfying the needs of primary producers in the conduct of their agricultural enterprises.
The case was made in this thesis that established schools of thinking on the adoption behaviour of primary producers do not provide a rigorous, explicit procedure for discovering how innovations can contribute to satisfying the needs of primary producers as managers of agricultural enterprises. As a consequence, policy makers and investors in research and extension have lacked a rigorous method for identifying the population of potential adopters of agricultural innovations. This means policy making and investment in research and extension has sometimes lacked a thoroughly defensible foundation for setting priorities for agricultural research, and for designing and evaluating programs for promoting the adoption of agricultural innovations.
The aim in this thesis was to describe a framework for discovering how agricultural innovations contribute to satisfying the needs of primary producers as managers of agricultural enterprises. Meeting this objective required describing a method for properly specifying the population of potential adopters of agricultural innovations. Drawing on consumer behaviour theory and farming systems theory a method was described that was based on the assumption that the adoption of agricultural innovations is a highly involving decision for producers and the hypothesis that the benefits to be had from adopting an agricultural innovation are influenced by particular elements in a farming system that are specific to each innovation. These elements were termed the farm context for an innovation. The method allowed the population of potential adopters to be classified into segments on the basis that producers with different farm contexts obtained different benefits from an agricultural innovation.
The method was tested by application in four case studies in which the population of potential adopters of agricultural innovations was estimated through the identification of the farm context. The case studies included intensive irrigated and extensive dryland agricultural industries, cropping and livestock industries, and perennial cropping industries. The case studies covered innovations with different diffusion characteristics ranging from relatively simple and easy-to-trial innovations to innovations that were more complex and difficult to trial. The case studies spanned the four dimensions of farm context (strategic, labour and lifestyle, technology and practice, and biophysical) and illustrated the ways in which the mix of these dimensions in the farm context differs across innovations.
The results of the case studies supported the hypothesis and demonstrated that the method for identifying and quantifying the population of potential adopters of an agricultural innovation by identifying the farm contexts for an innovation has merit. The results from the case studies also indicated that the method was generalisable across agricultural industries, innovations that differed in their diffusion characteristics, and the different dimensions of the farm system that shaped the benefits to be had from an innovation.