The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring ... more The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.
The Career Planning and Adult Development Journal, 2015
This article argues that work is going through a transformation. It makes the case by analyzing t... more This article argues that work is going through a transformation. It makes the case by analyzing three key assumptions about the role of work (1) work is central to individual's identity (2) work structures daily life, and (3) work is the primary source of income. Three driving forces are challenging those assumptions - the rise of automation and machine intelligence, shifts in individual values, and the rise of a new economy - are described. The conclusion is that challenges to these assumptions are indeed underway and at varying stages of maturity. The implications for career development suggest a dual approach of maintaining a short-term focus on careers and gradually expanding the notion of career development into a more integrated, holistic approach of life planning.Career advisors are continuously challenged with providing guidance that balances the short-and long-term interests of clients. This special issue focuses on the long-term, and this article explores the long-term...
This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of t... more This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of the field. It offers three reasons why: providing a focus for field-building, aiding credibility, and attracting talent. It then explores the current state of professionalization by assessing where foresight stands against the standard criteria of a profession. It concludes with recommendation on what needs to be done and how to proceed, suggesting social constructionism as a guiding perspective and five projects or initiatives to guide the process.
Purpose This paper aims to describe the approach used by the research team to explore the topic o... more Purpose This paper aims to describe the approach used by the research team to explore the topic of future student needs. It described the specific method, Framework Foresight, and how it was adapted to meet the circumstances of topic and client. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on the approach that guided the original research study on which this special issue is based. It describes the use of the Framework Foresight method developed by the Houston Foresight program and how it was adapted for the project. Findings The paper demonstrates how the Framework Foresight method can be effectively used to explore the future of a topic, in this case future student needs. It points out how it can be adapted or customized to suit particular topic or client needs. Research limitations/implications The research focused on the student perspective and identified implications of those findings for higher education institutions and their stakeholders. It did not explicitly focus on how...
Abstract The piece highlights the methodological contributions that Richard Slaughter has made to... more Abstract The piece highlights the methodological contributions that Richard Slaughter has made to FS/Foresight. It organizations these contributions into four distinct roles: chronicler, critic, innovator, and champion. Richard had the remarkable ability to take up a new role as felt it was needed. His work made a significant and lasting contribution to developing the methodological capacity of futurists and the field to serve his purpose of promoting the development of high-quality foresight work.
Conventional analysis of security issues tends to take a disjointed approach through tightly focu... more Conventional analysis of security issues tends to take a disjointed approach through tightly focused tactical lenses. Increasingly, however, security issues are embedded in a wider and diverse range of factors that may escape conventional analysis. An integral futures perspective to exploring security issues is proposed that provides a wider lens by taking an integrated holistic approach that explores individual and collective aspects of emerging issues from both an interior (e.g., motivation, culture) and exterior (e.g., behavior, systems, and infrastructures) perspective. We believe this approach provides a fresh way to identify issues as well as providing a more holistic explanatory framework.
A Foresight Outcomes Framework is proposed as mechanism for organizational futurists to stimulate... more A Foresight Outcomes Framework is proposed as mechanism for organizational futurists to stimulate and frame dialogue about successful outcomes for the integration of foresight. It builds the framework upon a key assumption that the goal of the organizational futurist is to influence the decision-making process. It explores different levels of outcomes and identifies examples of evaluating outcomes and how they relate to decision-making. Social constructionism is recommended as a guiding perspective informing the use of the framework. With these pieces in place, the framework itself is described and explained, following by implications, conclusions, and recommendations for further
Purpose The rapidly changed global context for internationalization (IZN) over the next decade pr... more Purpose The rapidly changed global context for internationalization (IZN) over the next decade prompted a decision to use a futurist perspective for identifying issues to be considered in the organization’s next strategic plan. This paper aims to report on this project to identify current and strategic issues influencing the future strategy of the higher education (HE) IZN for Thailand on behalf of the Bureau of International Cooperation Strategy and the Office of the Higher Education Commission. Design/methodology/approach The research approach was a customized version of the University of Houston’s Framework Foresight method. It involved framing the domain with a description and domain map, scanning for signals of change within the domain and emerging issues analysis to produce a set of current and emerging issues. A planning step synthesizes a set of recommended actions. Findings The key findings reported in this paper are the identification of 14 current and emerging issues infl...
Purpose The organization’s core approach to exploring and influencing the future, Framework Fores... more Purpose The organization’s core approach to exploring and influencing the future, Framework Foresight, emerged from piecemeal roots in the 1990s to an established method circa 2013. Since then, it has evolved from primarily a teaching tool to a project methodology in its own right. The purpose of this paper is to explore the iterative process that has emerged in which teaching and practice inform and advance one another. Design/methodology/approach Innovations in technique will be highlighted and illustrated by commentary from project experience. The piece will be providing readers with a birds-eye view into the evolution of a foresight method in both theory and practice. Findings The continuous iteration between theory and practice, or the classroom and the client world, provides an excellent means to advance the teaching and practice of foresight. Significant changes include three horizons, inputs, drivers, archetypes, rating scenarios and strategic approach. Practical implication...
While foresight continues to develop as a field, it is arguably still relatively unknown and unde... more While foresight continues to develop as a field, it is arguably still relatively unknown and underappreciated by potential clients and the public. Futurists are still explaining themselves and what they do on a regular basis. One challenge in explaining futures work is a lack of consensus around key questions about the field. While a variety of perspectives is valuable to futures work, for those new to it, the myriad answers to core questions—such as who futurists are, how futurists work, and how long have futurists been doing it—creates unnecessary confusion. While efforts have been made to address these questions, progress has been spotty. The field has been unable to settle on a name for itself that captures who futurists are. The recently proposed Foresight Competency Model is a step toward consensus on how futurists work. A key question that remains open is how long has formal futures work been done, that is, when did foresight begin as a field. An informal listserv discussion ...
Foresight and design are growing closer together. The two fields are sharing a key tool: scenario... more Foresight and design are growing closer together. The two fields are sharing a key tool: scenarios. The piece opens by highlighting the growing relationship between the fields. It compares the generic process frameworks they use. It then reviews the expanding roles of scenarios in design. It concludes by suggesting there is an opportunity for futurists and designers to learn from one another’s use of scenarios and that pressure on both fields to expand their scope and capabilities suggest even more collaboration between the two in the future.
The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring ... more The increasing complexity and uncertainty of the future may stimulate demand for more monitoring emerging issues. Futurists have long advocated for monitoring the future on an ongoing basis or for tracking the findings of project work in practice. However, clients have historically been reluctant to invest time and money in monitoring, and little practical guidance is available on how to set up a monitoring. This article describes a pilot monitoring capability that is simple and practical to implement. It was developed as a “plug-in” to supplement an ongoing horizon scanning system. The monitoring system tracks the movement of emerging issues that were identified by horizon scanning. It provides a means to keep policy-makers informed about the progress of emerging issues and provides advance warning to develop an appropriate strategic response.
The Career Planning and Adult Development Journal, 2015
This article argues that work is going through a transformation. It makes the case by analyzing t... more This article argues that work is going through a transformation. It makes the case by analyzing three key assumptions about the role of work (1) work is central to individual's identity (2) work structures daily life, and (3) work is the primary source of income. Three driving forces are challenging those assumptions - the rise of automation and machine intelligence, shifts in individual values, and the rise of a new economy - are described. The conclusion is that challenges to these assumptions are indeed underway and at varying stages of maturity. The implications for career development suggest a dual approach of maintaining a short-term focus on careers and gradually expanding the notion of career development into a more integrated, holistic approach of life planning.Career advisors are continuously challenged with providing guidance that balances the short-and long-term interests of clients. This special issue focuses on the long-term, and this article explores the long-term...
This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of t... more This article advocates for the professionalization of foresight as beneficial to development of the field. It offers three reasons why: providing a focus for field-building, aiding credibility, and attracting talent. It then explores the current state of professionalization by assessing where foresight stands against the standard criteria of a profession. It concludes with recommendation on what needs to be done and how to proceed, suggesting social constructionism as a guiding perspective and five projects or initiatives to guide the process.
Purpose This paper aims to describe the approach used by the research team to explore the topic o... more Purpose This paper aims to describe the approach used by the research team to explore the topic of future student needs. It described the specific method, Framework Foresight, and how it was adapted to meet the circumstances of topic and client. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on the approach that guided the original research study on which this special issue is based. It describes the use of the Framework Foresight method developed by the Houston Foresight program and how it was adapted for the project. Findings The paper demonstrates how the Framework Foresight method can be effectively used to explore the future of a topic, in this case future student needs. It points out how it can be adapted or customized to suit particular topic or client needs. Research limitations/implications The research focused on the student perspective and identified implications of those findings for higher education institutions and their stakeholders. It did not explicitly focus on how...
Abstract The piece highlights the methodological contributions that Richard Slaughter has made to... more Abstract The piece highlights the methodological contributions that Richard Slaughter has made to FS/Foresight. It organizations these contributions into four distinct roles: chronicler, critic, innovator, and champion. Richard had the remarkable ability to take up a new role as felt it was needed. His work made a significant and lasting contribution to developing the methodological capacity of futurists and the field to serve his purpose of promoting the development of high-quality foresight work.
Conventional analysis of security issues tends to take a disjointed approach through tightly focu... more Conventional analysis of security issues tends to take a disjointed approach through tightly focused tactical lenses. Increasingly, however, security issues are embedded in a wider and diverse range of factors that may escape conventional analysis. An integral futures perspective to exploring security issues is proposed that provides a wider lens by taking an integrated holistic approach that explores individual and collective aspects of emerging issues from both an interior (e.g., motivation, culture) and exterior (e.g., behavior, systems, and infrastructures) perspective. We believe this approach provides a fresh way to identify issues as well as providing a more holistic explanatory framework.
A Foresight Outcomes Framework is proposed as mechanism for organizational futurists to stimulate... more A Foresight Outcomes Framework is proposed as mechanism for organizational futurists to stimulate and frame dialogue about successful outcomes for the integration of foresight. It builds the framework upon a key assumption that the goal of the organizational futurist is to influence the decision-making process. It explores different levels of outcomes and identifies examples of evaluating outcomes and how they relate to decision-making. Social constructionism is recommended as a guiding perspective informing the use of the framework. With these pieces in place, the framework itself is described and explained, following by implications, conclusions, and recommendations for further
Purpose The rapidly changed global context for internationalization (IZN) over the next decade pr... more Purpose The rapidly changed global context for internationalization (IZN) over the next decade prompted a decision to use a futurist perspective for identifying issues to be considered in the organization’s next strategic plan. This paper aims to report on this project to identify current and strategic issues influencing the future strategy of the higher education (HE) IZN for Thailand on behalf of the Bureau of International Cooperation Strategy and the Office of the Higher Education Commission. Design/methodology/approach The research approach was a customized version of the University of Houston’s Framework Foresight method. It involved framing the domain with a description and domain map, scanning for signals of change within the domain and emerging issues analysis to produce a set of current and emerging issues. A planning step synthesizes a set of recommended actions. Findings The key findings reported in this paper are the identification of 14 current and emerging issues infl...
Purpose The organization’s core approach to exploring and influencing the future, Framework Fores... more Purpose The organization’s core approach to exploring and influencing the future, Framework Foresight, emerged from piecemeal roots in the 1990s to an established method circa 2013. Since then, it has evolved from primarily a teaching tool to a project methodology in its own right. The purpose of this paper is to explore the iterative process that has emerged in which teaching and practice inform and advance one another. Design/methodology/approach Innovations in technique will be highlighted and illustrated by commentary from project experience. The piece will be providing readers with a birds-eye view into the evolution of a foresight method in both theory and practice. Findings The continuous iteration between theory and practice, or the classroom and the client world, provides an excellent means to advance the teaching and practice of foresight. Significant changes include three horizons, inputs, drivers, archetypes, rating scenarios and strategic approach. Practical implication...
While foresight continues to develop as a field, it is arguably still relatively unknown and unde... more While foresight continues to develop as a field, it is arguably still relatively unknown and underappreciated by potential clients and the public. Futurists are still explaining themselves and what they do on a regular basis. One challenge in explaining futures work is a lack of consensus around key questions about the field. While a variety of perspectives is valuable to futures work, for those new to it, the myriad answers to core questions—such as who futurists are, how futurists work, and how long have futurists been doing it—creates unnecessary confusion. While efforts have been made to address these questions, progress has been spotty. The field has been unable to settle on a name for itself that captures who futurists are. The recently proposed Foresight Competency Model is a step toward consensus on how futurists work. A key question that remains open is how long has formal futures work been done, that is, when did foresight begin as a field. An informal listserv discussion ...
Foresight and design are growing closer together. The two fields are sharing a key tool: scenario... more Foresight and design are growing closer together. The two fields are sharing a key tool: scenarios. The piece opens by highlighting the growing relationship between the fields. It compares the generic process frameworks they use. It then reviews the expanding roles of scenarios in design. It concludes by suggesting there is an opportunity for futurists and designers to learn from one another’s use of scenarios and that pressure on both fields to expand their scope and capabilities suggest even more collaboration between the two in the future.
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Papers by Andy Hines