... regional economic repercussions. Range shrinkage of certain forest species is projected to be... more ... regional economic repercussions. Range shrinkage of certain forest species is projected to be so severe that extinctions may occur. Such projections lend weight to calls for reduction of fossil fuel consumption. Although all models ...
... Thinking Strategically Power Tools for Personal and Professional Advancement CRAIG LOEHLE, Ph... more ... Thinking Strategically Power Tools for Personal and Professional Advancement CRAIG LOEHLE, PhD Argonne National Laboratory Cambridge UNIVERSITY PRESS ... chapters were reviewed by Egolfs Bakuzis, Henry H. Bauer, Dan Herms, Rolfe Leary, D. Bengston, J. Cairns, IJ ...
Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America; (United States), Jun 1, 1994
ABSTRACT A large tract of land taken out of agriculture at the Ft. Riley military base was studie... more ABSTRACT A large tract of land taken out of agriculture at the Ft. Riley military base was studied for forest recovery rate using aerial photos taken 16 years apart. Controlled and uncontrolled burns occurred during this time. On dissected terrain, forest spread was substantial during this period. Forest initially occurred along stream channels. All spread was to areas immediately adjacent to existing forest. A spatially explicit contagion model modified by topography successfully predicted forest spread. In flatter terrain, no forest spread could be detected, indicating more effective regulation of forest area by fire in such locations. Implications for land management are discussed.
Acknowledgements Introduction Part I. Component Skills of Strategic Thinking: 1. Strategic creati... more Acknowledgements Introduction Part I. Component Skills of Strategic Thinking: 1. Strategic creativity 2. Discovery as a process 3. Strategic problem solving 4. Reality check 5. A matter of style 6. Attitude: the inner strategist 7. Strategic thinking exercises Part 2. Strategic Thinking in Practice: 8. Problem finding 9. Analysis: tools of thought 10. Solutions: getting a grip Summary: the strategic thinker Literature cited Index.
Management of wildlife and protection of endangered species depend on determination of population... more Management of wildlife and protection of endangered species depend on determination of population trends. Because population changes are stochastic and autoregressive, there is reason to believe that population trends might not be properly determined by simple regression over short time periods. A bounded random walk (BRW) model is introduced as a null model for evaluating population trends. The BRW model shows long-term stability but rising and falling sequences of up to many decades. For a given variability and survey length, there will be an expected probability of finding a greater than X% slope simply by chance. This false positive probability needs to be considered when evaluating trends. Breeding Bird Survey data for 128 species over 46 years for two states were analyzed for trends for different series lengths. Trends estimated from short series were likely to not agree with the 46-year trends. Very short series (e.g., 5 years) tended to indicate no trend due to loss of statistical power. A 101-year series for sandwich term (Sterna sandvicensis) revealed that even for 40 year-long series, 33% of subset series had a negative trend compared to the strong 101 year full series positive trend. The BRW model simulations and both data sets pointed to 20 years as a minimum time period for estimating trends reliably, though this can be longer for species that tend to cycle. Proper inference should thus consider the implications of inherent time series variability.
There are two competing views of the growth and maintenance aspects of plant respiration : a trad... more There are two competing views of the growth and maintenance aspects of plant respiration : a traditional view based on growth analysis which relates respiration to whole plant dry weight and a differential equation formulation which distinguishes between storage material that may be used for growth, non-degradable structure, and degradable structure that degrades at some rate and may be recycled. It is shown how and under what conditions these two mathematical models may be reconciled. Suggestions are made for improving both models.
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 2020
Purpose We tested the effectiveness of the global and ecoregion-based average characterization fa... more Purpose We tested the effectiveness of the global and ecoregion-based average characterization factors (CFs) for “Potential Species Loss” recommended by the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative to identify hotspots and improvement opportunities compared to using a land competition indicator for a product for which the predominant life cycle use of land is forest management. Methods For a case study of average corrugated boxes produced in the US, system boundaries were defined to encompass all life cycle stages from forest management to disposal. Fiber procurement was regionalized to US ecoregions, and (Chaudhary et al. Environ Sci Technol 49:9987–9995, 2015) ecoregion-specific CFs were applied. US-average CFs were applied to other background processes. Hotspots were identified using contribution analyses, and improvement opportunities were evaluated using scenarios. We compared the results with those from applying a land competition indicator, often used as a proxy for biodiversity in L...
Abstract The health of United States forests is of concern for biodiversity conservation, ecosyst... more Abstract The health of United States forests is of concern for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services, forest commercial values, and other reasons. Climate change, rising concentrations of CO2 and some pollutants could plausibly have affected forest health and growth rates over the past 150 years and may affect forests in the future. Multiple factors must be considered when assessing present and future forest health. Factors undergoing change include temperature, precipitation (including flood and drought), CO2 concentration, N deposition, and air pollutants. Secondary effects include alteration of pest and pathogen dynamics by climate change. We provide a review of these factors as they relate to forest health and climate change. We find that plants can shift their optimum temperature for photosynthesis, especially in the presence of elevated CO2, which also increases plant productivity. No clear national trend to date has been reported for flood or drought or their effects on forests except for a current drought in the US Southwest. Additionally, elevated CO2 increases water use efficiency and protects plants from drought. Pollutants can reduce plant growth but concentrations of major pollutants such as ozone have declined modestly. Ozone damage in particular is lessened by rising CO2. No clear trend has been reported for pathogen or insect damage but experiments suggest that in many cases rising CO2 enhances plant resistance to both agents. There is strong evidence from the United States and globally that forest growth has been increasing over recent decades to the past 100+ years. Future prospects for forests are not clear because different models produce divergent forecasts. However, forest growth models that incorporate more realistic physiological responses to rising CO2 are more likely to show future enhanced growth. Overall, our review suggests that United States forest health has improved over recent decades and is not likely to be impaired in at least the next few decades.
The Faustmann formula, equivalent to the land expectation value (LEV), yields the present value, ... more The Faustmann formula, equivalent to the land expectation value (LEV), yields the present value, starting with bare land, of an infinite series of future timber rotations for a stand. If this formula is used to find the rotation age that maximizes the present value, a lower annual harvest will result when compared to a maximum sustained yield (MSY) regime for an ownership with many stands. However, the LEV is strongly preferred by economists. This is the LEV vs. rents paradox. Herein, this paper demonstrates that an infinite series of annual harvests for an ownership under an even flow regime, discounted to the present using any interest rate, will provide the same optimal rotation age as the time of the peak MAI for a single stand, though with different estimates for the profitability, depending on the interest rate. Thus, rotations producing the MSY and the maximum financial return are identical when analyzed at the ownership scale but are not the same when based on the analysis a...
Invasive species are a growing global threat to forest ecosystems. In North America, previous inv... more Invasive species are a growing global threat to forest ecosystems. In North America, previous invasions have functionally eliminated the American chestnut (Castanea dentata), a keystone and commercially important species in eastern North American forests, and currently threaten to eliminate other important species, such as ash (Fraxinus spp.), redbay (Persea borbonia), and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis). Invasive species, particularly invasive insects, pathogens, and plants, threaten forest ecosystem integrity and put commercial forestry at risk. However, as the threat from invasive species grows due to expanding international trade, the scientific workforce with specialized expertise and training to mitigate current threats and, more importantly, avoid future threats, has been declining over the past 40 years. Research funding and administrative capacity to respond have also not kept pace with increased frequency and risk of species introductions. Herein, we review the nature o...
... regional economic repercussions. Range shrinkage of certain forest species is projected to be... more ... regional economic repercussions. Range shrinkage of certain forest species is projected to be so severe that extinctions may occur. Such projections lend weight to calls for reduction of fossil fuel consumption. Although all models ...
... Thinking Strategically Power Tools for Personal and Professional Advancement CRAIG LOEHLE, Ph... more ... Thinking Strategically Power Tools for Personal and Professional Advancement CRAIG LOEHLE, PhD Argonne National Laboratory Cambridge UNIVERSITY PRESS ... chapters were reviewed by Egolfs Bakuzis, Henry H. Bauer, Dan Herms, Rolfe Leary, D. Bengston, J. Cairns, IJ ...
Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America; (United States), Jun 1, 1994
ABSTRACT A large tract of land taken out of agriculture at the Ft. Riley military base was studie... more ABSTRACT A large tract of land taken out of agriculture at the Ft. Riley military base was studied for forest recovery rate using aerial photos taken 16 years apart. Controlled and uncontrolled burns occurred during this time. On dissected terrain, forest spread was substantial during this period. Forest initially occurred along stream channels. All spread was to areas immediately adjacent to existing forest. A spatially explicit contagion model modified by topography successfully predicted forest spread. In flatter terrain, no forest spread could be detected, indicating more effective regulation of forest area by fire in such locations. Implications for land management are discussed.
Acknowledgements Introduction Part I. Component Skills of Strategic Thinking: 1. Strategic creati... more Acknowledgements Introduction Part I. Component Skills of Strategic Thinking: 1. Strategic creativity 2. Discovery as a process 3. Strategic problem solving 4. Reality check 5. A matter of style 6. Attitude: the inner strategist 7. Strategic thinking exercises Part 2. Strategic Thinking in Practice: 8. Problem finding 9. Analysis: tools of thought 10. Solutions: getting a grip Summary: the strategic thinker Literature cited Index.
Management of wildlife and protection of endangered species depend on determination of population... more Management of wildlife and protection of endangered species depend on determination of population trends. Because population changes are stochastic and autoregressive, there is reason to believe that population trends might not be properly determined by simple regression over short time periods. A bounded random walk (BRW) model is introduced as a null model for evaluating population trends. The BRW model shows long-term stability but rising and falling sequences of up to many decades. For a given variability and survey length, there will be an expected probability of finding a greater than X% slope simply by chance. This false positive probability needs to be considered when evaluating trends. Breeding Bird Survey data for 128 species over 46 years for two states were analyzed for trends for different series lengths. Trends estimated from short series were likely to not agree with the 46-year trends. Very short series (e.g., 5 years) tended to indicate no trend due to loss of statistical power. A 101-year series for sandwich term (Sterna sandvicensis) revealed that even for 40 year-long series, 33% of subset series had a negative trend compared to the strong 101 year full series positive trend. The BRW model simulations and both data sets pointed to 20 years as a minimum time period for estimating trends reliably, though this can be longer for species that tend to cycle. Proper inference should thus consider the implications of inherent time series variability.
There are two competing views of the growth and maintenance aspects of plant respiration : a trad... more There are two competing views of the growth and maintenance aspects of plant respiration : a traditional view based on growth analysis which relates respiration to whole plant dry weight and a differential equation formulation which distinguishes between storage material that may be used for growth, non-degradable structure, and degradable structure that degrades at some rate and may be recycled. It is shown how and under what conditions these two mathematical models may be reconciled. Suggestions are made for improving both models.
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 2020
Purpose We tested the effectiveness of the global and ecoregion-based average characterization fa... more Purpose We tested the effectiveness of the global and ecoregion-based average characterization factors (CFs) for “Potential Species Loss” recommended by the UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative to identify hotspots and improvement opportunities compared to using a land competition indicator for a product for which the predominant life cycle use of land is forest management. Methods For a case study of average corrugated boxes produced in the US, system boundaries were defined to encompass all life cycle stages from forest management to disposal. Fiber procurement was regionalized to US ecoregions, and (Chaudhary et al. Environ Sci Technol 49:9987–9995, 2015) ecoregion-specific CFs were applied. US-average CFs were applied to other background processes. Hotspots were identified using contribution analyses, and improvement opportunities were evaluated using scenarios. We compared the results with those from applying a land competition indicator, often used as a proxy for biodiversity in L...
Abstract The health of United States forests is of concern for biodiversity conservation, ecosyst... more Abstract The health of United States forests is of concern for biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services, forest commercial values, and other reasons. Climate change, rising concentrations of CO2 and some pollutants could plausibly have affected forest health and growth rates over the past 150 years and may affect forests in the future. Multiple factors must be considered when assessing present and future forest health. Factors undergoing change include temperature, precipitation (including flood and drought), CO2 concentration, N deposition, and air pollutants. Secondary effects include alteration of pest and pathogen dynamics by climate change. We provide a review of these factors as they relate to forest health and climate change. We find that plants can shift their optimum temperature for photosynthesis, especially in the presence of elevated CO2, which also increases plant productivity. No clear national trend to date has been reported for flood or drought or their effects on forests except for a current drought in the US Southwest. Additionally, elevated CO2 increases water use efficiency and protects plants from drought. Pollutants can reduce plant growth but concentrations of major pollutants such as ozone have declined modestly. Ozone damage in particular is lessened by rising CO2. No clear trend has been reported for pathogen or insect damage but experiments suggest that in many cases rising CO2 enhances plant resistance to both agents. There is strong evidence from the United States and globally that forest growth has been increasing over recent decades to the past 100+ years. Future prospects for forests are not clear because different models produce divergent forecasts. However, forest growth models that incorporate more realistic physiological responses to rising CO2 are more likely to show future enhanced growth. Overall, our review suggests that United States forest health has improved over recent decades and is not likely to be impaired in at least the next few decades.
The Faustmann formula, equivalent to the land expectation value (LEV), yields the present value, ... more The Faustmann formula, equivalent to the land expectation value (LEV), yields the present value, starting with bare land, of an infinite series of future timber rotations for a stand. If this formula is used to find the rotation age that maximizes the present value, a lower annual harvest will result when compared to a maximum sustained yield (MSY) regime for an ownership with many stands. However, the LEV is strongly preferred by economists. This is the LEV vs. rents paradox. Herein, this paper demonstrates that an infinite series of annual harvests for an ownership under an even flow regime, discounted to the present using any interest rate, will provide the same optimal rotation age as the time of the peak MAI for a single stand, though with different estimates for the profitability, depending on the interest rate. Thus, rotations producing the MSY and the maximum financial return are identical when analyzed at the ownership scale but are not the same when based on the analysis a...
Invasive species are a growing global threat to forest ecosystems. In North America, previous inv... more Invasive species are a growing global threat to forest ecosystems. In North America, previous invasions have functionally eliminated the American chestnut (Castanea dentata), a keystone and commercially important species in eastern North American forests, and currently threaten to eliminate other important species, such as ash (Fraxinus spp.), redbay (Persea borbonia), and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis). Invasive species, particularly invasive insects, pathogens, and plants, threaten forest ecosystem integrity and put commercial forestry at risk. However, as the threat from invasive species grows due to expanding international trade, the scientific workforce with specialized expertise and training to mitigate current threats and, more importantly, avoid future threats, has been declining over the past 40 years. Research funding and administrative capacity to respond have also not kept pace with increased frequency and risk of species introductions. Herein, we review the nature o...
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