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Why Not Settle Down Already? A Quantitative Question

Author

Listed:
  • David Weiss

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Cezar Santos

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract
One of the most striking changes in American society over the last 40 years has been the decline and delay in marriage. The fraction of young men and women who have never been married has steadily and significantly increased since before 1970. The economics literature has also noted a rise in labor market volatility over this period. The first contribution of this paper is that we propose a new hypothesis: that these two events are linked. Specifically, if marriage involves consumption commitments, then a rise in volatility in income processes could result in a delay in marriage. The second contribution is to assess this new hypothesis vis-à-vis others in the literature, using an estimated structural model. We find that the decrease in the price of home inputs explains a little over a third of the data. The decrease in the gender wage gap explains a third of the data. Rising income volatility explains a little under a third of the data. All three of these stories are needed in order to provide a satisfactory explanation to the question of why young adults are delaying marriage.

Suggested Citation

  • David Weiss & Cezar Santos, 2011. "Why Not Settle Down Already? A Quantitative Question," 2011 Meeting Papers 921, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:921
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States: 1967-2006," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 15-51, January.
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    13. Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Jacob Short & Ferdinando Regalia, 2010. "What Accounts for the Increase in the Number of Single Households?," 2010 Meeting Papers 995, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan, 2009. "On the Persistence of Income Shocks over the Life Cycle: Evidence and Implications, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 05 Apr 2010.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2024. "Homeownership and Portfolio Choice over the Generations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 207-237, January.
    2. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Ricardo Marto, 2021. "The Great Transition: Kuznets Facts for Family-Economists," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 33, Economie d'Avant Garde.
    3. Salvador Ortigueira & Nawid Siassi, 2022. "The U.S. Tax-Transfer System and Low-Income Households: Savings, Labor Supply, and Household Formation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 184-210, April.
    4. Hye Mi You, 2018. "Marriage, Working Spouses, and Male Wage Volatility," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 34, pages 101-115.
    5. Guner, Nezih & Caucutt, Elizabeth & Rauh, Christopher, 2018. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration, Unemployment, and the Racial Marriage Divide," CEPR Discussion Papers 13275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2019. "The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage," Working Papers wp2019_1912, CEMFI.
    7. Nawid Siassi, 2019. "Inequality and the Marriage Gap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 160-181, January.
    8. Nezih Guner & Christopher Rauh & Elizabeth Caucutt, 2017. "Is Marriage for White People? Incarceration and the Racial Marriage Divide," 2017 Meeting Papers 779, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Fabio Blasutto & Egor Kozlov, 2020. "(Changing) Marriage and Cohabitation Patterns in the US: do Divorce Laws Matter?," 2020 Papers pbl245, Job Market Papers.
    10. Marcel Fischer & Natalia Khorunzhina, 2019. "Housing Decision With Divorce Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1263-1290, August.
    11. George-Levi Gayle & Prasanthi Ramakrishnan & Mariana Odio-Zúñiga, 2021. "Work, Leisure, and Family: From the Silent Generation to Millennials," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 385-424, October.
    12. Chiara L. Comolli & Daniele Vignoli, 2019. "Spread-ing uncertainty, shrinking birth rates," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2019_08, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    13. Fabio Blasutto, 2024. "Cohabitation vs. Marriage: Mating Strategies by Education in The USA," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 1723-1761.
    14. Salvador Ortigueira & Nawid Siassi, 2022. "The U.S. Tax-Transfer System and Low-Income Households: Savings, Labor Supply, and Household Formation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 184-210, April.
    15. Elyakim Kislev, 2020. "Social Capital, Happiness, and the Unmarried: a Multilevel Analysis of 32 European Countries," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1475-1492, November.
    16. Pavel Jelnov, 2018. "A New Estimator of Search Duration and Its Application to the Marriage Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1089-1116, December.
    17. Grey Gordon, 2019. "Efficient Computation with Taste Shocks," Working Paper 19-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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