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A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting

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  • António Rua
Abstract
In an increasingly data rich environment, factor models have become the workhorse approach for modelling and forecasting purposes. However, factors are non-observable and have to be estimated. In particular, the space spanned by the unknown factors is typically estimated via principal components. Herein, it is proposed a novel procedure to estimate the factor space resorting to a wavelet based multiscale principal component analysis. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, it is shown that such an approach allows to improve both factor model estimation and forecasting performance. In the empirical application, one illustrates its usefulness for forecasting GDP growth and inflation in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • António Rua, 2016. "A wavelet-based multivariate multiscale approach for forecasting," Working Papers w201612, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201612
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