Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ptu/wpaper/o202001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banco de Portugal TARGET balance: evolution and main drivers

Author

Listed:
  • Joana Sousa Leite
  • Rita Soares
  • João Filipe
  • Nuno Nóbrega
Abstract
Banco de Portugal TARGET balance, an accounting position representing a liability towards the European Central Bank arising from net cross-border payments in central bank money settled via the TARGET2 payment system, was the largest item on Banco de Portugal balance sheet by the end of 2018. In this paper, we depict the evolution and explain the main underlying drivers of Banco de Portugal TARGET liability since the beginning of Stage III of the EMU, following two perspectives, one based on Banco de Portugal balance sheet and other on the Portuguese Balance of Payments. We find that the evolution of Banco de Portugal TARGET liability is highly related with the volume of liquidity-providing monetary policy operations, although the underlying drivers evolved throughout the time: demand driven in 2011/2012 and supply driven from 2015 onwards. We find no time-invariant causal link between Banco de Portugal TARGET liability and neither financial market stress indicators nor the net financing needs of the Portuguese economy. We corroborate our findings empirically using simple OLS regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Joana Sousa Leite & Rita Soares & João Filipe & Nuno Nóbrega, 2020. "Banco de Portugal TARGET balance: evolution and main drivers," Working Papers o202001, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:o202001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/op202001_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    2. Pana Alves & Antonio Millaruelo & Ana del Río, 2018. "The increase in TARGET balances in the euro area since 2015," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.
    3. Raphael A. Auer, 2014. "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis [What drives Target2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 139-197.
    4. Bill Lucarelli, 2017. "Intra-eurozone Payments Imbalances: Implications for the TARGET2 Payments System," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 343-357, September.
    5. Ulrich Bindseil & Philippine Cour-Thimann & Philipp König, 2012. "Target2 and Cross-border Interbank Payments during the Financial Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(05), pages 83-92, February.
    6. Baldo, Luca & Hallinger, Benoît & Helmus, Caspar & Herrala, Niko & Martins, Débora & Mohing, Felix & Petroulakis, Filippos & Resinek, Marc & Vergote, Olivier & Usciati, Benoît & Wang, Yizhou, 2017. "The distribution of excess liquidity in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 200, European Central Bank.
    7. Gros, Daniel, 2017. "Target imbalances at record levels: Should we worry?," CEPS Papers 13209, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    8. Haran, Patrick & Bailey, Samuel, 2012. "Analysis of Recent Monetary Operations and TARGET2 Developments," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 115-132, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Minenna, Marcello, 2022. "Target 2 determinants: The role of Balance of Payments imbalances in the long run," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. PhilippineCour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0, pages 05-50, May.
    3. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2020. "Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud & Chitu, Livia & Richardson, Gary, 2015. "Mutual Assistance between Federal Reserve Banks: 1913–1960 as Prolegomena to the TARGET2 Debate," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 621-659, September.
    5. Stephen Wright & Charmaine Portelli, 2018. "The True Size of the ECB: New Insights from National Central Bank Balance Sheets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1807, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    6. Rosaria Rita Canale & G. Liotti, 2022. "Target2 imbalances and poverty in the eurozone," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1395-1417, November.
    7. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Kedan, Danielle & Schmitz, Martin & Adalid, Ramón & Papsdorf, Patrick, 2017. "The Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme and TARGET balances," Occasional Paper Series 196, European Central Bank.
    8. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    9. Philippine Cour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0(1), pages 05-50, May.
    10. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Kedan, Danielle & Schmitz, Martin, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy and TARGET balances: A trilogy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    12. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Iraklis & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "A new macro stress testing approach for financial realignment in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 52-80.
    13. Bettendorf, Timo & Jochem, Axel, 2021. "What drives the German TARGET balances? Evidence from a BVAR approach," Discussion Papers 12/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Fagan, Gabriel & McNelis, Paul D., 2020. "Sudden stops in the Euro Area: Does monetary union matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Philip R. Lane, 2014. "International Financial Flows and the Irish Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(2), pages 14-19, April.
    16. Francesco Purificato & Caterina Astarita, 2015. "TARGET2 Imbalances and the ECB as Lender of Last Resort," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, October.
    17. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    18. Bindseil, Ulrich & Winkler, Adalbert, 2012. "Dual liquidity crises under alternative monetary frameworks: a financial accounts perspective," Working Paper Series 1478, European Central Bank.
    19. Philip R. Lane, 2014. "International Financial Flows and the Irish Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(02), pages 14-19, April.
    20. Chmielewski Tomasz & Sławiński Andrzej, 2019. "Lessons from TARGET2 imbalances: The case for the ECB being a lender of last resort," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 48-63, June.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:o202001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DEE-NTD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdpgvpt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.