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An Optimum Currency Crisis

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  • Pasimeni, Paolo
Abstract
This paper presents an ex-post assessment of the current situation of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in light of the conditions prescribed by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCA). The analysis shows that those conditions were satisfied at very different degrees. Factors mobility has clearly increased since the inception of the Eurozone, with an important difference between free movement of capital, which can be considered as fully accomplished, and labour mobility, which has improved, but to a lower degree. Prices and wages flexibility was initially lower compared to other regions, like the US, but has improved over time. The similarity of business cycles among different economies joining the euro was a condition not respected at the beginning, which probably led to sustained imbalances within the Eurozone. Finally, fiscal union was the main missing element of the initial construction of the Eurozone, and still is. The common budget is so exiguous that its effectiveness as shock absorption mechanism is negligible. The analysis then shows how some of the concerns raised on the eve of the euro did actually materialize, even if not immediately. First, in its first decade the Eurozone did not experience major turbulences, because growing financial integration was compensating the need for fiscal transfers, through the private insurance channel. Second, once the long-feared shock hit, the mechanism proved weak and non-resilient. The inherent weaknesses of the EMU became evident. Third, as it had been foreseen, the cost of the adjustment after the shock fell mainly on labour, with much higher and longer unemployment in the Eurozone than both non-Eurozone EU and the US. Fourth, as the theory suggested, the lack of common mechanisms of adjustment dramatically increased socio-economic divergences within the EMU.

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  • Pasimeni, Paolo, 2013. "An Optimum Currency Crisis," MPRA Paper 53506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marius Clemens & Guillaume Claveres, 2017. "Unemployment Insurance Union," 2017 Meeting Papers 1340, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Francesco Spadafora, 2019. "European integration in the time of mistrust," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 512, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Giovanni Covi, 2020. "Euro area growth differentials: diverging and reinforcing factors in a Kaleckian SVAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 147-180, February.
    4. Mogaji, Peter Kehinde, 2015. "Review of Architectural Flaws of the EMU: What Eurozone Crisis Lessons for the Proposed ‘Afrozone’?," MPRA Paper 99334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hudec Martin, 2018. "A Search for an Optimum Currency Area," Studia Commercialia Bratislavensia, Sciendo, vol. 11(39), pages 75-90, June.
    6. Acocella, Nicola, 2020. "How to Reform the EU and the EMU," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(3), pages 325-350.
    7. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2015. "Optimum Currency Areas, Real and Nominal Convergence in the European Union," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 42, pages 8-29, December.
    8. Apergis, Emmanuel & Apergis, Iraklis & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "A new macro stress testing approach for financial realignment in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 52-80.
    9. David Blake, 2023. "Target2: The Silent Bailout System That Keeps the Euro Afloat," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-126, December.
    10. László Andor, 2016. "Towards shared unemployment insurance in the euro area," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; Optimum Currency Areas; Socio-economic Divergences; Fiscal Union; Political Union.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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