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Safe Assets

Author

Listed:
  • Robert J. Barro
  • Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
  • Oren Levintal
  • Andrew Mollerus
Abstract
A safe asset’s real value is insulated from shocks, including declines in GDP from rare macroeconomic disasters. However, in a Lucas-tree world, the aggregate risk is given by the process for GDP and cannot be altered by the creation of safe assets. Therefore, in the equilibrium of a representative-agent version of this economy, the quantity of safe assets will be nil. With heterogeneity in coefficients of relative risk aversion, safe assets can take the form of private bond issues from low-risk-aversion to high-risk-aversion agents. The model assumes Epstein-Zin/Weil preferences with common values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the rate of time preference. The model achieves stationarity by allowing for random shifts in coefficients of relative risk aversion. We derive the equilibrium values of the ratio of safe to total assets, the shares of each agent in equity ownership and wealth, and the rates of return on safe and risky assets. In a baseline case, the steady-state risk-free rate is 1.0% per year, the unlevered equity premium is 4.2%, and the quantity of safe assets ranges up to 15% of economy-wide assets (comprising the capitalized value of GDP). A disaster shock leads to an extended period in which the share of wealth held by the low-risk-averse agent and the risk-free rate are low but rising, and the ratio of safe to total assets is high but falling. In the baseline model, Ricardian Equivalence holds in that added government bonds have no effect on rates of return and the net quantity of safe assets. Surprisingly, the crowding-out coefficient for private bonds with respect to public bonds is not 0 or -1 but around -0.5, a value found in some existing empirical studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert J. Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2014. "Safe Assets," NBER Working Papers 20652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20652
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Robert J Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2022. "Safe Assets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2075-2100.
    • Robert J. Barro, 2014. "Safe Assets," Working Papers 2014-28, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Barro, Robert & Levintal, Oren & Mollerus, Andrew, 2017. "Safe Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Robert Barro & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2017. "Safe Assets," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 10 May 2017.

    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2022. "The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 581-625.
    2. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2019. "The Tail That Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 253-283.
    3. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "The Safety Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 223-274.
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    5. van Riet, Ad, 2017. "Addressing the safety trilemma: a safe sovereign asset for the eurozone," ESRB Working Paper Series 35, European Systemic Risk Board.
    6. Panageas, Stavros, 2020. "The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 12(3), pages 199-275, November.
    7. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "Leverage," NBER Working Papers 22905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. van Buggenum, Hugo, 2021. "Risk, Inside Money, and the Real Economy," Other publications TiSEM daabe114-81fa-44fc-aafd-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Andrew B. Abel, 2015. "Crowding Out in Ricardian Economies," NBER Working Papers 21550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Azzimonti, Marina & Yared, Pierre, 2019. "The optimal public and private provision of safe assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 126-144.
    12. Ly-Dai, Hung, 2014. "Global Imbalances with Safe Assets in Eurozone," MPRA Paper 90238, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2018.
    13. Ly Dai Hung, 2018. "Global Imbalances with Safe Assets in Eurozone," Working Papers hal-01935158, HAL.
    14. van Buggenum, Hugo, 2021. "Risk, Inside Money, and the Real Economy," Discussion Paper 2021-020, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Kan Chen & Nathaniel Karp, 2018. "Natural interest rates in the U.S., Canada and Mexico," Working Papers 18/07, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    16. Yulei Luo & Jun Nie & Eric R Young, 2020. "Ambiguity, Low Risk-Free Rates and Consumption Inequality," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(632), pages 2649-2679.
    17. Veronesi, Pietro & Santos, Tano, 2016. "Habits and Leverage," CEPR Discussion Papers 11681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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