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The Future of U.S. Carbon-Pricing Policy

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  • Robert Stavins
Abstract
There is widespread agreement among economists – and a diverse set of other policy analysts – that at least in the long run, an economy-wide carbon pricing system will be an essential element of any national policy that can achieve meaningful reductions of CO2 emissions cost-effectively in the United States. There is less agreement, however, among economists and others in the policy community regarding the choice of specific carbon-pricing policy instrument, with some supporting carbon taxes and others favoring cap and trade mechanisms. This prompts two important questions. How do the two major approaches to carbon pricing compare on relevant dimensions, including but not limited to efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and distributional equity? And which of the two approaches is more likely to be adopted in the future in the United States? This paper addresses these questions by drawing on both normative and positive theories of policy instrument choice as they apply to U.S. climate change policy, and draws extensively on relevant empirical evidence. The paper concludes with a look at the path ahead, including an assessment of how the two carbon-pricing instruments can be made more politically acceptable.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Stavins, 2019. "The Future of U.S. Carbon-Pricing Policy," NBER Working Papers 25912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25912
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    5. Hammerle, Mara & Best, Rohan & Crosby, Paul, 2021. "Public acceptance of carbon taxes in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
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    7. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Long, Xianling & Lu, Jieyi & Morgenstern, Richard D., 2020. "China’s Unconventional Nationwide CO₂ Emissions Trading System: The Wide-Ranging Impacts of an Implicit Output Subsidy," RFF Working Paper Series 20-02, Resources for the Future.
    8. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline, 2022. "Rendre acceptable la nécessaire taxation du carbone. Quelles pistes pour la France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 15-53.
    9. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Diluiso, Francesca, 2024. "Climate actions, market beliefs, and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 176-208.
    10. Lasse Fridstrøm, 2021. "The Norwegian Vehicle Electrification Policy and Its Implicit Price of Carbon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-14, January.
    11. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Long, Xianling & Lu, Jieyi & Morgenstern, Richard D., 2022. "China's unconventional nationwide CO2 emissions trading system: Cost-effectiveness and distributional impacts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    12. Ewald, Jens & Sterner, Thomas & Sterner, Erik, 2022. "Understanding the resistance to carbon taxes: Drivers and barriers among the general public and fuel-tax protesters," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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