Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbp/nbpmis/360.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Supply chains shocks and inflation in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Mućk

    (Narodowy Bank Polski and SGH Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Łukasz Postek

    (Narodowy Bank Polski and University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract
This article quantifies the effects of supply chains disruptions on inflation in European economies. We apply the local projection method in a panel framework and estimate responses of nine measures of consumer and producer inflation to shortages in materials and equipment reported by enterprises in the business surveys conducted by the European Commission. We find that supply chains disruptions are proinflationary for all considered measures of inflation, and a larger effect can be observed for inflation of prices of goods rather than services. The peak of impulse responses can be observed 4-6 quarters after shock, while the effect usually dies out after 8-12 quarters. The forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) suggests that supply chain disruptions are much more important in explaining inflation changes at medium- rather than short-run forecast horizon. Moreover, supply chain shocks seem to matter relatively more for the variance of inflation of consumer prices of goods than for other measures of inflation. Interestingly, the positive estimates of the impact of supply chains disruptions on inflation can be related mainly to the period corresponding with the COVID-19 pandemics as well as the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and may exhibit asymmetric or regime-switching nature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Mućk & Łukasz Postek, 2023. "Supply chains shocks and inflation in Europe," NBP Working Papers 360, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:360
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://static.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy-i-studia/360_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    supply chains shock; inflation; local projection; panel data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jakub Growiec (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.