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Using the EU-SILC to Model the Impact of the Economic Crisis on Inequality

Author

Listed:
  • O'Donoghue, Cathal

    (National University of Ireland, Galway)

  • Loughrey, Jason

    (Teagasc Rural Economy Research Centre)

  • Morrissey, Karyn

    (University of Liverpool)

Abstract
In this paper we attempted to chart the impact of the early part of Ireland's economic crisis from 2008-2010 on the distribution of income. In order to decompose the impact of components of income, we utilised a microsimulation methodology the EU-SILC User Database. In order to do this we had to develop a simulation based methodology to disaggregate the main 6 benefit variables in the EU-SILC into 17 used in our tax-benefit model. Validating, our results were positive, giving us confidence in our methodology. We utilised the framework to model changes to the level of income inequality from the period just before the crisis in 2004 to after the crisis in 2010. In terms of the impact of the economic crisis, we found that the income inequality fell in the early part of the crisis, but rose steadily and then rapidly. Much of this change was due to rising inequality of market incomes, (even when discounting unemployment). This was due to the differential effect of the downturn on different sectors where some sectors such as the construction and public sectors were significantly hit, while the international traded sectors have been relatively immune from the downturn and have seen continued growth. The impact of the tax-benefit system has been to mitigate this upward pressure, with a gradual rise in the redistributive effect of the tax-benefit system driven by an increase in demand on the benefits side and increased progressivity on the tax side.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Donoghue, Cathal & Loughrey, Jason & Morrissey, Karyn, 2013. "Using the EU-SILC to Model the Impact of the Economic Crisis on Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 7242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tim Callan & Brian Nolan & Claire Keane & John R. Walsh, 2010. "Inequality and the Crisis: The Distributional Impact of Tax Increases and Welfare and Public Sector Pay Cuts," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(4), pages 461-471.
    2. André Decoster & Jason Loughrey & Cathal O'Donoghue & Dirk Verwerft, 2010. "How regressive are indirect taxes? A microsimulation analysis for five European countries," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 326-350.
    3. Callan,Tim & Keane,Claire & Savage,Michael & Walsh,John R., 2012. "Distributional Impact of Tax, Welfare and Public Sector Pay Policies: 2009-2012," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(4-Winter ).
    4. Tim Callan & Brian Nolan & John Walsh, 2011. "The Economic Crisis, Public Sector Pay and the Income Distribution," Research in Labor Economics, in: Who Loses in the Downturn? Economic Crisis, Employment and Income Distribution, pages 207-225, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. José Mata & José A. F. Machado, 2005. "Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage distributions using quantile regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 445-465.
    6. Sarah Voitchovsky & Bertrand Maitre & Brian Nolan, 2012. "Wage Inequality in Ireland’s “Celtic Tiger” Boom," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 99-133.
    7. Figari, Francesco & Sutherland, Holly & Levy, Horacio, 2007. "Using the EU-SILC for policy simulation: prospects, some limitations and some suggestions," EUROMOD Working Papers EM1/07, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. Callan, Tim & Keeney, Mary J. & Nolan, Brian & Walsh, John R., 2001. "Reforming Tax and Welfare," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS42.
    9. Jason Loughrey & Cathal O’Donoghue, 2012. "The Welfare Impact of Price Changes on Household Welfare and Inequality 1999-2011," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(1), pages 31-66.
    10. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire, 2009. "Non-cash Benefits and the Distribution of Economic Welfare," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(1), pages 49-71.
    11. Callan, Tim & Keane, Claire & Walsh, John R. & Lane, Marguerita, 2010. "From Data to Policy Analysis: Tax-Benefit Modelling using SILC 2008," Papers WP359, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Cathal O'Donoghue & Denisa M. Sologon & Iryna Kyzyma & John McHale, 2020. "Modelling the Distributional Impact of the COVID‐19 Crisis," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 321-336, June.
    2. Olivier Bargain & Tim Callan & Karina Doorley & Claire Keane, 2017. "Changes in Income Distributions and the Role of Tax‐Benefit Policy During the Great Recession: An International Perspective," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 559-585, December.
    3. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Sologon, Denisa Maria, 2023. "The Transformation of Public Policy Analysis in Times of Crisis – A Microsimulation-Nowcasting Method Using Big Data," IZA Discussion Papers 15937, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. O'Donoghue, Cathal & M. Sologon, Denisa & Kyzyma, Iryna & McHale, John, 2020. "Modelling the distributional impact of the Covid-19 crisis in Ireland," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA4/20, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Cathal O’Donoghue & Jason Loughrey & Denisa M. Sologon, 2018. "Decomposing the Drivers of Changes in Inequality During the Great Recession in Ireland using the Fields Approach," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 173-200.
    6. Morrissey, Karyn, 2014. "Using secondary data to examine economic trends in a subset of sectors in the English marine economy: 2003–2011," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(PA), pages 135-141.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macro-economic change; microsimulation; inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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