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Stimulus through Insurance: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt

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Abstract
Using detailed micro data, we document that households often use “stimulus” checks to pay down debt, especially those with low net wealth-to-income ratios. To rationalize these patterns, we introduce a borrowing price schedule into an otherwise standard incomplete markets model. Because interest rates rise with debt, borrowers have increasingly larger incentives to use an additional dollar to reduce debt service payments rather than consume. Using our calibrated model, we then study whether and how this marginal propensity to repay debt (MPRD) alters the aggregate implications of fiscal transfers. We uncover a trade-off between stimulus and insurance, as high-debt individuals gain considerably from transfers, but consume relatively little immediately. We show how this mechanism can lower short-run fiscal multipliers but sustain aggregate consumption for longer.

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  • Gizem Koşar & Davide Melcangi & Laura Pilossoph & David Wiczer, 2023. "Stimulus through Insurance: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt," Staff Reports 1065, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:96483
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitri V. Vinogradov & Michael J. Lamla & Yousef Makhlouf, 2024. "Survey-based expectations and uncertainty attitudes," Working Papers 2024_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Savoia, Ettore, 2023. "The effects of labor income risk heterogeneity on the marginal propensity to consume," Working Paper Series 2866, European Central Bank.
    3. Donghoon Lee & Daniel Mangrum & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Crystal Wang, 2024. "Financial Education and Household Financial Decisions During the Pandemic," Staff Reports 1131, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    marginal propensity to consume; consumption; debt; fiscal transfers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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