Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/2017-025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Feng Dong
  • Yi Wen
Abstract
We endogenize the liquidity and the quality of private assets in a tractable incomplete-market model with heterogeneous agents. The model decomposes the convenience yield of government bond into a \"liquidity premium\" (flight to liquidity) and a \"safety premium\" (flight to quality) over the business cycle. When calibrated to match the U.S. aggregate output fluctuations and bond premiums, the model reveals that a sharp reduction in the quality, instead of the liquidity, of private assets was the culprit of the recent financial crisis, consistent with the perception that it was the subprime mortgage problem that triggered the Great Recession. Since the provision of public liquidity endogenously affects the provision of private liquidity, our model indicates that excessive injection of public liquidity during financial crisis can be welfare reducing under either conventional or unconventional policies. In particular, too much intervention for too long can depress capital investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2017. "Flight to What? — Dissecting Liquidity Shortages in the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2017-25, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2017-025
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2017.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2017/2017-025.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2017.025
    File Function: https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2017.025
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/wp.2017.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Gomme & B. Ravikumar & Peter Rupert, 2011. "The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 262-278, April.
    2. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    3. Robert J Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2022. "Safe Assets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2075-2100.
      • Robert J. Barro, 2014. "Safe Assets," Working Papers 2014-28, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
      • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Barro, Robert & Levintal, Oren & Mollerus, Andrew, 2017. "Safe Assets," CEPR Discussion Papers 12043, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Robert J. Barro & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2014. "Safe Assets," NBER Working Papers 20652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Robert Barro & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Oren Levintal & Andrew Mollerus, 2017. "Safe Assets," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 10 May 2017.
    4. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    5. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2020. "Flights to Safety," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 689-746.
    6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2016. "Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 513-518, May.
    7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2013. "A Model of the Safe Asset Mechanism (SAM): Safety Traps and Economic Policy," Working Paper 70936, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    8. Krishnamurthy, Arvind & Vissing-Jorgensen, Annette, 2015. "The impact of Treasury supply on financial sector lending and stability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 571-600.
    9. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "The Safety Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 223-274.
    10. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    11. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2017. "Safe Assets, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 182-227, April.
    12. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    13. Saki Bigio, 2015. "Endogenous Liquidity and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1883-1927, June.
    14. Gorton, Gary & Ordoñez, Guillermo, 2022. "The supply and demand for safe assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 132-147.
    15. Frederic Malherbe, 2014. "Self-Fulfilling Liquidity Dry-Ups," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 947-970, April.
    16. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2008. "Liquidity, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," 2008 Meeting Papers 35, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Wei Cui & Sören Radde, 2020. "Search-based Endogenous Asset Liquidity and the Macroeconomy [Why Don’t US Issuers Demand European Fees for IPOs?]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2221-2269.
    18. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas & Yi Wen, 2016. "Self-Fulfilling Credit Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(4), pages 1364-1405.
    19. House, Christopher L. & Masatlioglu, Yusufcan, 2015. "Managing markets for toxic assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 84-99.
    20. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
    21. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Rampini, Adriano A., 2006. "Capital reallocation and liquidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 369-399, April.
    22. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    23. John Krainer & Elizabeth Laderman, 2014. "Mortgage Loan Securitization and Relative Loan Performance," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-66, February.
    24. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    25. Williamson, Steve & Wright, Randall, 1994. "Barter and Monetary Exchange under Private Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 104-123, March.
    26. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "What Makes US Government Bonds Safe Assets?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 519-523, May.
    27. Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2011. "Payments and liquidity under adverse selection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 191-205.
    28. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2012. "Hayashi Meets Kiyotaki and Moore: A Theory of Capital Adjustment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 207-225, April.
    29. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:1-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Public Debt as Private Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 382-388, May.
    31. Feng Dong & Yi Wen, 2017. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Negative Interest Rate," Working Papers 2017-19, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    32. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2013. "QE 1 vs. 2 vs. 3. . . : A Framework for Analyzing Large-Scale Asset Purchases as a Monetary Policy Tool," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 5-53, January.
    33. Andolfatto, David & Williamson, Stephen, 2015. "Scarcity of safe assets, inflation, and the policy trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 70-92.
    34. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "A Comparative-Advantage Approach to Government Debt Maturity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1683-1722, August.
    35. Benjamin Lester & Andrew Postlewaite & Randall Wright, 2012. "Information, Liquidity, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 1209-1238.
    36. Pablo Kurlat, 2013. "Lemons Markets and the Transmission of Aggregate Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1463-1489, June.
    37. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    38. Yi Wen, 2014. "QE: when and how should the Fed exit?," Working Papers 2014-16, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    39. Golec, Pascal & Perotti, Enrico, 2017. "Safe assets: a review," Working Paper Series 2035, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thakor, Anjan V., 2018. "Post-crisis regulatory reform in banking: Address insolvency risk, not illiquidity!," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 107-111.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Caramp, 2021. "Sowing the Seeds of Financial Crises: Endogenous Asset Creation and Adverse Selection," Working Papers 342, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2024. "A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2612-2654.
    4. Golec, Pascal & Perotti, Enrico, 2017. "Safe assets: a review," Working Paper Series 2035, European Central Bank.
    5. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio, 2014. "Liquidity provision, interest rates, and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 80-101.
    6. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Robatto, Roberto, 2019. "Private money creation, liquidity crises, and government interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 42-58.
    7. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gregory Phelan, 2022. "Fragility of Safe Asset Markets," Staff Reports 1026, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Benedikt Ballensiefen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2023. "Safe Asset Carry Trade," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 223-265.
    10. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    11. Maya Eden, 2019. "International Liquidity Rents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 147-159, January.
    12. Ricardo J Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "The Safety Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 223-274.
    13. Cui, Wei, 2016. "Monetary–fiscal interactions with endogenous liquidity frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-25.
    14. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    15. Marcin Kacperczyk & Christophe Pérignon & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2021. "The Private Production of Safe Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 495-535, April.
    16. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2022. "The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 581-625.
    17. Gilbert Mbaraa & Ryszard Kokoszczyński, 2018. "Corporate governance, tax evasion and business cycles," Working Papers 2018-10, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    18. Radde, Sören, 2015. "Flight to liquidity and the Great Recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 192-207.
    19. Glick, Reuven, 2020. "r* and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Gabriella Chiesa, 2020. "Safe Assets, Credit Provision and Debt Management," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 637-667, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity Shortage; Resaleability Constraint; Information Asymmetry; Flight to Liquidity; Flight to Quality; Financial Crisis; Unconventional Policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2017-025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.