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Production vs Revenue Efficiency With Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence From Pakistan

Author

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  • Kleven, Henrik
  • Best, Michael
  • Spinnewijn, Johannes
  • Waseem, Mazhar
  • Brockmeyer, Anne
Abstract
This paper analyzes the design of tax systems under imperfect enforcement. A common policy in developing countries is to impose minimum tax schemes whereby firms are taxed either on profits or on turnover, depending on which tax liability is larger. This production inefficient tax policy has been motivated by the idea that the broader turnover tax base is harder to evade. Minimum tax schemes give rise to a kink point in firms' choice sets as the tax rate and tax base jump discontinuously when one tax liability surpasses the other. Using administrative tax records on corporations in Pakistan, we find large bunching around the minimum tax kink. We show that the combined tax rate and tax base change at the kink provides small real incentives for bunching, making the policy ideal for eliciting evasion. We develop an empirical approach allowing us to put (tight) bounds on the evasion response to switches between profit and turnover taxation, and find that turnover taxes reduce evasion by up to 60-70% of corporate income. Our analysis sheds new light on the use of production-inefficient tax tools in countries with limited tax capacity and can easily be replicated in other contexts as the quasi-experimental variation needed is ubiquitous.

Suggested Citation

  • Kleven, Henrik & Best, Michael & Spinnewijn, Johannes & Waseem, Mazhar & Brockmeyer, Anne, 2013. "Production vs Revenue Efficiency With Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence From Pakistan," CEPR Discussion Papers 9717, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9717
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    3. Merima Ali & Abdulaziz B. Shifa & Abebe Shimeles & Firew Woldeyes, 2021. "Building Fiscal Capacity in Developing Countries: Evidence on the Role of Information Technology," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(3), pages 591-620.
    4. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    5. Julia Cage & Lucie Gadenne, 2014. "Tax Revenues, Development, and the Fiscal Cost of Trade Liberalization, 1792-2006," Working Papers hal-03460586, HAL.
    6. Miguel Almunia & David Lopez-Rodriguez, 2018. "Under the Radar: The Effects of Monitoring Firms on Tax Compliance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, February.
    7. Godin, M. & Hindriks, J., 2015. "A Review of Critical Issues on Tax Design and Tax Administration in a Global Economy and Developing Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2015028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Ronald Waiswa & Jesse Lastunen & Gemma Wright & Michael Noble & Joseph Okello Ayo & Milly Isingoma Nalukwago & Tina Kaidu Barugahara & Susan Kavuma & Isaac Arinaitwe & Martin Mwesigye & Wilson Asiimwe, 2021. "An assessment of presumptive tax in Uganda: Evaluating the 2020 reform and four alternative reform scenarios using UGAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-163, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Waseem, Mazhar, 2018. "Taxes, informality and income shifting: Evidence from a recent Pakistani tax reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 41-77.
    10. Hoseini, Mohammad, 2015. "Value-Addes Tax and Shadow Economy : the Role of Input-Output Linkages (revision of CentER Discussion Paper 2013-036)," Discussion Paper 2015-058, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. R. Lardeux, 2018. "Who Understands The French Income Tax? Bunching Where Tax Liabilities Start," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2018-04, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    12. Beer, Sebastian & Loeprick, Jan, 2017. "Taxing income in the oil and gas sector — Challenges of international and domestic profit shifting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 186-198.
    13. repec:nam:befdwp:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Anne Brockmeyer, 2013. "The investment effect of taxation: evidence from a corporate tax kink," Working Papers 1317, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4icc4hr7684k8f6u7csmfuve2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Brockmeyer,Anne & Hernandez,Marco, 2016. "Taxation, information, and withholding : evidence from Costa Rica," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7600, The World Bank.
    17. Catalina Tejada & Eliana Ferrara & Henrik Kleven & Florian Blum & Oriana Bandiera & Michel Azulai, 2015. "State Effectiveness, Growth, and Development," Working Papers id:6668, eSocialSciences.

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