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The food security dimension of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrari, Emanuele
  • Boysen, Ole
  • Nechifor, Victor
  • Simola, Antti
  • Boulanger, Pierre H
Abstract
The African Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) that came into effect in January 2021, holds a promise of boosting the economies of African countries. In addition, the agreement could help to alleviate the food security in various parts of the continent. In our study we assess a likely scenario for food security outcomes in the continent. To the best of our knowledge, no prior quantitative assessment of the agreement’s food security outcomes exists. Our study fills this gap. We employ a global computable general equilibrium model MAGNET that includes a detailed representation of trade flows and agri-food production in African countries. With the model we simulate an explicit trajectory of reductions in tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) between African countries. Our results indicate that the AfCFTA has largely positive effects on African economies that will boost both economic growth and intra-African trade. These outcomes help to improve food security principally by increasing the household incomes. Food production becomes more concentrated geographically as the countries’ are better able to exploit their comparative advantages. In addition, majority of the countries improve their food security by increasing their imports and are in some cases able to reduce their own production.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrari, Emanuele & Boysen, Ole & Nechifor, Victor & Simola, Antti & Boulanger, Pierre H, 2021. "The food security dimension of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)," Conference papers 330218, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:330218
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/330218/files/10426_Ferrari.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Mr. Lisandro Abrego & Maria Alejandra Amado & Tunc Gursoy & Garth P. Nicholls & Hector Perez-Saiz, 2019. "The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/124, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilaria Fusacchia & Jean Balié & Luca Salvatici, 2022. "The AfCFTA impact on agricultural and food trade: a value added perspective," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(1), pages 237-284.

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