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How risky is college investment?

Author

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  • Hendricks, Lutz
  • Leukhina, Oksana
Abstract
This paper is motivated by the fact that nearly half of U.S. college students drop out without earning a bachelor's degree. Its objective is to quantify how much uncertainty college entrants face about their graduation outcomes. To do so, we develop a quantitative model of college choice. The innovation is to model in detail how students progress towards a college degree. The model is calibrated using transcript and financial data. We find that more than half of college entrants can predict whether they will graduate with at least 80% probability. As a result, stylized policies that insure students against the financial risks associated with uncertain graduation have little value for the majority of college entrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendricks, Lutz & Leukhina, Oksana, 2015. "How risky is college investment?," CFS Working Paper Series 502, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:502
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How Risky Is College Investment?
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2015-12-16 11:30:39

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jo Blanden & Matthias Doepke & Jan Stuhler, 2022. "Education inequality," CEP Discussion Papers dp1849, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Kevin Donovan & Christopher Herrington, 2019. "Factors Affecting College Attainment and Student Ability in the U.S. since 1900," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 224-244, January.
    3. Kartik B. Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Urvi Neelakantan & Ivan Vidangos, 2020. "Who Values Access to College?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 20-03, pages 1-5, March.
    4. Matsuda, Kazushige & Mazur, Karol, 2022. "College education and income contingent loans in equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 100-117.
    5. Jing Jian Xiao & Nilton Porto & Irene McIvor Mason, 2020. "Financial capability of student loan holders who are college students, graduates, or dropouts," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1383-1401, December.
    6. Matsuda, Kazushige, 2020. "Optimal timing of college subsidies: Enrollment, graduation, and the skill premium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Ferreyra,Maria Marta & Garriga,Carlos & Martin,Juan David & Sanchez Diaz,Angelica Maria, 2020. "Raising College Access and Completion : How Much Can Free College Help ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9428, The World Bank.
    8. Gonzalo Castex, 2017. "College risk and return," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 91-112, October.
    9. Bernhard Eckwert & Itzhak Zilcha, 2020. "The role of colleges within the higher education sector," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 69(2), pages 315-336, March.
    10. Kevin Donovan & Christopher Herrington, 2019. "Factors Affecting College Attainment and Student Ability in the U.S. since 1900," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 224-244, January.
    11. Manuel Macera & Hitoshi Tsujiyama, 2018. "Frictional Labor Markets, Education Choices and Wage Inequality," 2018 Meeting Papers 827, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Education; College dropout risk;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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