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Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration

Author

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  • Theissen, Erik
Abstract
We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that a) the futures market leads in the process of price discovery and that b) the presence of arbitrage opportunities has a strong impact on the dynamics of the price discovery process.

Suggested Citation

  • Theissen, Erik, 2011. "Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration," CFR Working Papers 09-17 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0917r
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price discovery; futures markets; threshold error correction; common factor weights;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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