Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/warwec/859.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Good was the Profitability of British Railways, 1870-1912?

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Mitchell

    (Cambridge University)

  • David Chambers

    (Oxford University)

  • Nicholas Crafts

    (Warwick University)

Abstract
This paper provides new estimates of the return on capital employed (ROCE) for major British railway companies. It shows that ROCE was generally below the cost of capital after the mid-1870s and fell till the turn of the century. Addressing issues of cost inefficiency could have restored ROCE to an adequate level in the late 1890s but not in 1910. Declines in ROCE hit share prices and returns to shareholders were negative after 1897. Optimal portfolio analysis shows that, whilst railway securities would have had a substantial weight prior to this date, investors would have been justified in rushing to the exits thereafter.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Mitchell & David Chambers & Nicholas Crafts, 2008. "How Good was the Profitability of British Railways, 1870-1912?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 859, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:859
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/2008/twerp_859a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Foreman-Peck, J S, 1987. "Natural Monopoly and Railway Policy in the Nineteenth Century," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(4), pages 699-718, December.
    2. Mitchell, B. R., 1964. "The Coming of the Railway and United Kingdom Economic Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 315-336, September.
    3. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801, October.
    4. Charles Harvey & Jon Press, 2000. "Management and the Taff Vale Strike of 1900," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 63-86.
    5. Tim Jenkinson, 2006. "Regulation and the Cost of Capital," Chapters, in: Michael A. Crew & David Parker (ed.), International Handbook on Economic Regulation, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Nicholas Crafts & Timothy Leunig & Abay Mulatu, 2008. "Were British railway companies well managed in the early twentieth century?1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 61(4), pages 842-866, November.
    7. Leunig, Timothy, 2006. "Time is Money: A Re-Assessment of the Passenger Social Savings from Victorian British Railways," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 635-673, September.
    8. Leslie Hannah, 2007. "The 'Divorce' of ownership from control from 1900 onwards: Re-calibrating imagined global trends," Business History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 404-438.
    9. William N. Goetzmann & Andrey D. Ukhov, 2006. "British Investment Overseas 1870-1913: A Modern Portfolio Theory Approach," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(2), pages 261-300.
    10. Mehra, Rajnish (ed.), 2007. "Handbook of the Equity Risk Premium," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780444508997.
    11. Michie, Ranald, 2001. "The London Stock Exchange: A History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199242559.
    12. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    13. Fogel, Robert William, 1979. "Notes on the Social Saving Controversy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 1-54, March.
    14. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C. & Mulatu, Abay, 2007. "Total factor productivity growth on Britain's railways, 1852-1912: A reappraisal of the evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 608-634, October.
    15. Peter D. McClelland, 1972. "Social Rates of Return on American Railroads in the Nineteenth Century," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 25(3), pages 471-488, August.
    16. Gerald Crompton & Robert Jupe, 2002. "'An awkward fence to cross': railway capitalization in Britain in the inter-war years," Accounting History Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 439-459.
    17. Michael A. Crew & David Parker (ed.), 2006. "International Handbook on Economic Regulation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3330.
    18. McCloskey, Donald N. & Sandberg, Lars G., 1971. "From damnation to redemption: Judgments on the late victorian entrepreneur," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 89-108.
    19. Foreman-Peck,James (ed.), 1991. "New Perspectives on the Late Victorian Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521391078, October.
    20. Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 703-724, September.
    21. Grossman, Richard S., 2002. "New Indices Of British Equity Prices, 1870–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 121-146, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grossman, Richard, 2017. "Stocks for the Long Run: New Monthly Indices of British Equities, 1869-1929," CEPR Discussion Papers 12121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Crafts, Nicholas, 2010. "The contribution of new technology to economic growth: lessons from economic history," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 409-440, December.
    3. Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos & Janette Rutterford & Carolyn Keber, 2020. "UK investment trust portfolio strategies before the First World War," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 785-814, August.
    4. Richard S. Grossman, 2015. "Bloody foreigners! Overseas equity on the London Stock Exchange, 1869–1929," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(2), pages 471-521, May.
    5. James Foreman-Peck & Leslie Hannah, 2012. "Some Consequences of the Early Twentieth Century Divorce of Ownership from Control," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-864, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Turner, John D., 2024. "Three centuries of corporate governance in the UK," QUCEH Working Paper Series 24-01, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    7. Campbell, Gareth, 2012. "Myopic rationality in a Mania," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-91.
    8. Acheson, Graeme G. & Campbell, Gareth & Gallagher, Áine & Turner, John D., 2018. "Independent women: Shareholders in the age of the suffragettes," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2018-09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    9. Dan Bogart, 2012. "Profiting from Public Works: Financial Returns to Infrastructure and Investment Strategies during Britain's Industrial Revolution," Working Papers 121304, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    10. Richard S.Grossman, 2017. "Beresford’s Revenge: British equity holdings in Latin America, 1869-1929," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2017-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    11. Grossman, Richard, 2017. "Beresford’s Revenge: British equity holdings in Latin America, 1869-1929," CEPR Discussion Papers 12042, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Crafts & Timothy Leunig & Abay Mulatu, 2008. "Were British railway companies well managed in the early twentieth century?1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 61(4), pages 842-866, November.
    2. Bogart, Dan, 2010. "A global perspective on railway inefficiency and the rise of state ownership, 1880-1912," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 158-178, April.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas, 2011. "British Relative Economic Decline Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 8384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "British relative economic decline revisited: The role of competition," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 17-29.
    5. Grossman, Richard, 2017. "Stocks for the Long Run: New Monthly Indices of British Equities, 1869-1929," CEPR Discussion Papers 12121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. van Hombeeck, Carlos Eduardo, 2020. "An exorbitant privilege in the first age of international financial integration?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Campbell, Gareth, 2012. "Myopic rationality in a Mania," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-91.
    8. Turner, John D., 2014. "Financial history and financial economics," QUCEH Working Paper Series 14-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    9. James Foreman-Peck & Leslie Hannah, 2012. "Some Consequences of the Early Twentieth Century Divorce of Ownership from Control," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-864, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    10. Alquist, Ron & Chabot, Benjamin R. & Yamarthy, Ram, 2022. "The price of property rights: Institutions, finance, and economic growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C. & Mulatu, Abay, 2007. "Total factor productivity growth on Britain's railways, 1852-1912: A reappraisal of the evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 608-634, October.
    12. Nicholas Crafts, 2010. "Cliometrics and technological change: a survey," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 1127-1147.
    13. Crafts, Nicholas, 2004. "Social savings as a measure of the contribution of a new technology to economic growth," Economic History Working Papers 22554, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    14. Ravi Bansal & Marcelo Ochoa, 2011. "Welfare Costs of Long-Run Temperature Shifts," NBER Working Papers 17574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Acheson, Graeme G. & Campbell, Gareth & Gallagher, Áine & Turner, John D., 2018. "Independent women: Shareholders in the age of the suffragettes," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2018-09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    16. Janette Rutterford & David R. Green & Josephine Maltby & Alastair Owens, 2011. "Who comprised the nation of shareholders? Gender and investment in Great Britain, c. 1870–1935," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64(1), pages 157-187, February.
    17. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "A Proposal for a New Prescriptive Discounting Scheme: The Intergenerational Discount Rate," Working Papers 2008.47, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    19. Pycroft, Jonathan & Vergano, Lucia & Hope, Chris & Paci, Daniele & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "A tale of tails: Uncertainty and the social cost of carbon dioxide," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-29.
    20. Min Gong & David Krantz & Elke Weber, 2014. "Why Chinese discount future financial and environmental gains but not losses more than Americans," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 103-124, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:859. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.