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Is there a bubble in the Chinese housing market?

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Dreger
  • Yanqun Zhang
Abstract
For many analysts, the Chinese economy is spurred by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with possible adverse effects to the real economy. For example, the stock of loans increased by more than 50 percent since the end of 2008. The government urged banks to increase lending to mitigate the economic slowdown. Home mortgage loans have played a significant role in the development, as they account for one third of the total lending activities. Banks have provided easy credit for housing development, probably without sufficient evaluation of risks. State-owned enterprises may have stimulated the development, as they have access to low cost capital and may believe they are too big to fail. In this paper, the house price development is investigated both at the national and regional level. First, it is investigated whether a bubble exists. Analysis is based on a long run equilibrium between real house prices and demographic and macroeconomic conditions. Using a regional dataset for 35 major Chinese cities, the size of the bubble is estimated relative to the fundamental level implied by the panel cointegrating relationship. Second, the impact of real house prices on CPI inflation and GDP growth is investigated at the national level using an in sample and out of sample framework. The results indicate the presence of a house price bubble. Real house prices are 25 percent above their equilibrium value. The bubble is especially pronounced in the cities of the southeast coastal areas and the special economic zones. While the impact of real house prices on CPI inflation seems to be rather strong, GDP growth may not be heavily affected. Real house prices do not cause GDP growth, and point forecasts of GDP growth are not improved if the house price evolution is taken into account. These findings might reflect a limited exposure of private households expenditures to housing wealth. Therefore, a decline of the bubble could have only modest effects on the course of the real economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "Is there a bubble in the Chinese housing market?," ERSA conference papers ersa11p261, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa11p261
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    Cited by:

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    2. Renhe Liu & Eddie Chi-man Hui & Jiaqi Lv & Yi Chen, 2017. "What Drives Housing Markets: Fundamentals or Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 395-415, November.
    3. Fong Kean Yan & Yap Lya Keng & Kwek Kien Teng, 2016. "Empirical Analysis of House Price Bubble: A Case Study on Malaysia," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(12), pages 127-127, November.
    4. Niu, Geng & Yu, Li & Fan, Gang-Zhi & Zhang, Donghao, 2019. "Corporate fraud, risk avoidance, and housing investment in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 18-33.
    5. Nannan Yuan & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Are government interventions effective in regulating China fs house prices?," Discussion Papers 1427, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    6. Tommaso Gabrieli & Keith Pilbeam & Tianyu Wang, 2018. "Estimation of bubble dynamics in the Chinese real estate market: a State space model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 483-499, April.
    7. Gabrieli, Tommaso & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Xu, Yishuang, 2019. "Pair-wise convergence of intra-city house prices in Beijing," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    8. Francesco Tajani & Pierluigi Morano & Maria Paz Saez-Perez & Felicia Di Liddo & Marco Locurcio, 2019. "Multivariate Dynamic Analysis and Forecasting Models of Future Property Bubbles: Empirical Applications to the Housing Markets of Spanish Metropolitan Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-21, June.
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    10. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    11. I-Chun Tsai & Shu-Hen Chiang, 2018. "Risk Transfer among Housing Markets in Major Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Ren, Yu & Xiong, Cong & Yuan, Yufei, 2012. "House price bubbles in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 786-800.
    13. Bolan Liu & Xiaowei Ai & Pan Liu & Chuang Zhang & Xingqi Hu & Tianpu Dong, 2015. "Fuel Economy Improvement of a Heavy-Duty Powertrain by Using Hardware-in-Loop Simulation and Calibration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-14, September.
    14. Xin Zhang & David Geltner & Richard Neufville, 2018. "System Dynamics Modeling of Chinese Urban Housing Markets for Pedagogical and Policy Analysis Purposes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 476-501, October.
    15. repec:wyi:journl:002167 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    17. Xiaoping Zhou & Zhenyang Qin & Yingjie Zhang & Linyi Zhao & Yan Song, 2019. "Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-28, December.
    18. Jing Wu & Yongheng Deng & Hongyu Liu, 2014. "House Price Index Construction in the Nascent Housing Market: The Case of China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 522-545, April.
    19. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    20. Mei Liu & Qing-Ping Ma, 2021. "Determinants of house prices in China: a panel-corrected regression approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(1), pages 47-72, August.
    21. I-Chun Tsai, 2017. "The housing market and excess monetary liquidity in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 599-615, September.
    22. Wan, Junmin, 2018. "Prevention and landing of bubble," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 190-204.
    23. Zhenxi Chen & Cuntong Wang, 2020. "Speculative trading in Chinese housing market: a panel regression method," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(38), pages 4186-4195, July.
    24. Bago, Jean-Louis & Souratié, Wamadini M. & Ouédraogo, Moussa & Ouédraogo, Ernest & Dembélé, Alou, 2019. "Financial Bubbles : New Evidence from South Africa’s Stock Market," MPRA Paper 95685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Weizeng Sun & Siqi Zheng & David M. Geltner & Rui Wang, 2017. "The Housing Market Effects of Local Home Purchase Restrictions: Evidence from Beijing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 288-312, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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