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Information-Theoretic Approach for Forecasting Interval-Valued SP500 Daily Returns

Author

Listed:
  • T.S. Tuang Buansing

    (Fannie Mae)

  • Amos Golan

    (Department of Economics and Info-Metrics Institute, American University, and Santa Fe Institute)

  • Aman Ullah

    (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside)

Abstract
We develop an iterative and efficient information-theoretic estimator for forecasting interval-valued data, and use our estimator to forecast the SP500 returns up to five days ahead using moving windows. Our forecasts are based on 13 years of data. We show that our estimator is superior to its competitors under all of the common criteria that are used to evaluate forecasts of interval data. Our approach differs from other methods that are used to forecast interval data in two major ways. First, rather than applying the more traditional methods that use only certain moments of the intervals in the estimation process, our estimator uses the complete sample information. Second, our method simultaneously selects the model (or models) and infers the model’s parameters. It is an iterative approach that imposes minimal structure and statistical assumptions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • T.S. Tuang Buansing & Amos Golan & Aman Ullah, 2019. "Information-Theoretic Approach for Forecasting Interval-Valued SP500 Daily Returns," Working Papers 201922, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Model averaging for interval-valued data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 772-784.
    3. Piao Wang & Shahid Hussain Gurmani & Zhifu Tao & Jinpei Liu & Huayou Chen, 2024. "Interval time series forecasting: A systematic literature review," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 249-285, March.
    4. Wang, Piao & Tao, Zhifu & Liu, Jinpei & Chen, Huayou, 2023. "Improving the forecasting accuracy of interval-valued carbon price from a novel multi-scale framework with outliers detection: An improved interval-valued time series analysis mode," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wan, Chunzhuo & Wang, Ping, 2022. "Interval forecasting of carbon price: A novel multiscale ensemble forecasting approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

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