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Uncertainty Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment Goods

Author

Listed:
  • Munechika Katayama

    (Waseda University)

  • Kwang Hwan Kim

    (Yonsei University)

Abstract
This study empirically shows that higher uncertainty leads to not only a simultaneous drop in consumption and investment, but also a rise in the relative price of investment goods. This negative relationship between the relative price and quantity of investment suggests that heightened uncertainty depresses investment as an adverse supply shock to the investment sector. We demonstrate that a two-sector sticky price model with realistic asymmetric sectoral price rigidity can successfully account for our empirical findings. In particular, the underlying mechanism behind the negative relationship between the price and quantity of investment is limited intersectoral factor mobility. By contrast, the standard two-sector model featuring perfect factor mobility causes a negative co-movement between consumption and investment, contradicting the business cycle phenomenon. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Munechika Katayama & Kwang Hwan Kim, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 163-178, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:17-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2018.05.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
    2. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok Jason, 2019. "The long-run effects of uncertainty shocks," Bank of England working papers 802, Bank of England.
    3. Andrea Carriero & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Generalizing the Max Share Identification to multiple shocks identification: an Application to Uncertainty," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0322, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4. OH, Joonseok; ROGANTINI PICCO, Anna, 2019. "Macro uncertainty and unemployment risk," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/02, European University Institute.
    5. Xiaoqing An & William A. Barnett & Xue Wang & Qingyuan Wu, 2023. "Brexit spillovers: how economic policy uncertainty affects foreign direct investment and international trade," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(16), pages 1913-1932, November.
    6. Cho, Daeha & Kim, Kwang Hwan, 2022. "Inefficient relative price fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Ran, Gao & Zixiang, Zhu & Jianhao, Lin, 2022. "Consumption–investment comovement and the dynamic impact of monetary policy uncertainty in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
    9. Arbex, Marcelo & Caetano, Sidney & Correa, Wilson, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation target uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 111-115.
    10. Kovalenko, Tim, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: The role of establishment size," Discussion Papers 119, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    11. Joonseok Oh, 2020. "The Propagation Of Uncertainty Shocks: Rotemberg Versus Calvo," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1097-1113, August.
    12. Yugang He & Zhuoqi Teng, 2024. "Navigating Uncharted Waters: The Transformation of the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy in Response to Global Economic Uncertainty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, May.
    13. Goodness C. Aye & Laurence Harris, 2019. "The effect of real exchange rate volatility on income distribution in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Is There A Single Shock That Drives The Majority Of Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Working Papers 1906, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    15. Chia‐Yi Yen & Yu‐Hsi Chou, 2020. "Understanding The Macroeconomic Impact Of Illiquidity Shocks In The United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1245-1278, July.
    16. OH, Joonseok, 2019. "The propagation of uncertainty shocks : Rotemberg vs. Calvo," Economics Working Papers ECO 2019/01, European University Institute.
    17. Tim Kovalenko, 2021. "Uncertainty shocks and employment fluctuations in Germany: the role of establishment size," Working Papers 212, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty shocks; Sticky prices; Factor mobility; Relative price of investment goods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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