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The gravity of Offshore Financial Centers: Estimating real FDIs using a binary choice model

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  • Albori, Marco
  • Anzuini, Alessio
  • Ferriani, Fabrizio
  • Rossi, Luca
Abstract
Fiscal and regulatory arbitrage opportunities in Offshore Financial Centers (OFCs) materially distort the economic analysis based on cross-border capital flows. However, despite its significance, there is limited information on the true scale of this phenomenon. This paper focuses on Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and fills this gap by using an extensive list of FDIs determinants and estimating a gravity-like binary choice specification to assess how much bilateral FDIs are driven by economic integration motives versus profit shifting opportunities. We find that the share of so-called phantom FDIs, after rising in 2010–15, stabilized at around 40% of total FDIs in recent years and that this share is systematically larger in OFCs, reconciling available evidence on the abnormal amount of recorded FDIs in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Albori, Marco & Anzuini, Alessio & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Rossi, Luca, 2024. "The gravity of Offshore Financial Centers: Estimating real FDIs using a binary choice model," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:178:y:2024:i:c:s2110701724000246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100501
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign direct investments; FDI network; Tax havens; Gravity models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

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