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Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the 'new normal'

Author

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  • Lucio Gobbi
  • Ronny Mazzocchi
  • Roberto Tamborini
Abstract
Persistently low inflation rates in the Euro Area raise the question whether inflation is still credibly anchored to the Euro-system’s medium term target of below, but close to 2%. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we investigate why agents’ expectations that over the business cycle inflation will remain in line with the target begin to falter. Our hypothesis is that agents form expectations in terms of their confidence in the "normal regime", which is updated observing the state of the economy. Second, we study how the de-anchoring of expectations interacts with monetary policy determining whether the central bank is still able to achieve its target - and hence re-anchor inflation expectations - or whether the system drifts away towards depressed states of low inflation and output. Two are our main findings. The first is that, facing unfavourable shocks, if inflation expectations "fall faster" than the policy rate, and the zero lower bound is reached without correcting the shock, the system converges to a new steady state - the “new normal†- with permanent negative gaps. The second is that a more aggressive monetary policy is ineffective both at the ZLB and above the ZLB, when the shock is large and/or when the reactivity of inflation expectations is high enough. This last finding seems to support the necessity, in those conditions, to abandon conventional monetary policy and to switch to an aggressive reflationary policy that prevents the entrenchment of deflationary expectations

Suggested Citation

  • Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Monetary policy, de-anchoring of inflation expectations, and the 'new normal'," DEM Working Papers 2018/04, Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:trn:utwprg:2018/04
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    Cited by:

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    4. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Inflation puzzles, the Phillips Curve and output expectations: new perspectives from the Euro Zone," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 123-153, February.
    5. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "When Should Central Banks Fear Inflation Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10966, CESifo.
    6. Bottone, Marco & Tagliabracci, Alex & Zevi, Giordano, 2022. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: Novel evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 15-34.
    7. Marco Bottone & Alex Tagliabracci & Giordano Zevi, 2021. "Inflation expectations and the ECB’s perceived inflation objective: novel evidence from firm-level data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 621, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Amalu Henry Ikechukwu & Agbasi Lucy O. & Olife Loenard U. & Ujam Oluchukwu Juliet, 2020. "Monetary Policy Approach to Headline Inflation Control in Nigeria: Evidence from 1985-2018," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 7(7), pages 187-194, July.
    9. Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "Inflation surprises in a New Keynesian economy with a “true” consumption function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1192-1215, July.
    10. Giuliana Passamani & Alessandro Sardone & Roberto Tamborini, 2020. "Phillips Curve and output expectations: New perspectives from the Euro Zone," DEM Working Papers 2020/6, Department of Economics and Management.
    11. Massimo Amato & Everardo Belloni & Carlo A. Favero & Lucio Gobbi & Francesco Saraceno, 2024. "Stabilising market expectations through a market tool: a proposal for an enhanced TPI," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 597-615, July.
    12. Hielke Van Doorslaer & Mattias Vermeiren, 2021. "Pushing on a String: Monetary Policy, Growth Models and the Persistence of Low Inflation in Advanced Capitalism," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 797-816, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Zero Lower Bound; New Normal; Inflation Expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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