Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/econot/1318.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balance

Author

Listed:
  • A. Hakan Kara
  • Cagri Sarikaya
Abstract
Economic policies focusing on macro-financial risks in Turkey attribute special emphasis on current account developments. In this context, quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving current account deficit is crucial for the design of an appropriate policy response against current account volatility. Using a simple methodology, this note decomposes the cyclical/transitory part of the current account in Turkey, with special reference to its three components, namely foreign demand, domestic demand and foreign trade prices. The estimations under various assumptions indicate that the main trend of the current account deficit hovers around 5 percent of GDP in recent years. Our findings contribute to the understanding of recent dynamics in the current account and associated policies.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Hakan Kara & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balance," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1318, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/4a93416f-f225-4bc3-b4a6-06f4f8cc7518/EN1318eng.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-4a93416f-f225-4bc3-b4a6-06f4f8cc7518-m3fw5gO
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zelal Kotan & Mesut Saygili, 1999. "Estimating an Import Function for Turkey," Discussion Papers 9909, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu & Bulent Ulasan, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of the Structural Stability of Export Function : The Case of Turkey," Discussion Papers 9907, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Faruk Aydin & Hulya Saygili & Mesut Saygili, 2007. "Empirical Analysis of Structural Change in Turkish Exports," Working Papers 0708, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Altan Aldan & Olcay Yucel Culha, 2012. "Turkiye’nin Ihracat Artisinda Yayilma Marjinin Rolu," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1236, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Koray Alper & Hakan Kara & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 2013. "Reserve Options Mechanism," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14.
    7. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2009. "Elasticities of Turkish Exports and Imports," Working Papers 0906, Izmir University of Economics.
    8. Altan Aldan & Ihsan Bozok & Mahmut Gunay, 2012. "Short Run Import Dynamics in Turkey," Working Papers 1225, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. M. Faruk Aydin & Ugur Ciplak & Eray M. Yucel, 2004. "Export Supply and Import Demand Models for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0409, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Erdem Başçı & Hakan Kara, 2011. "Finansal istikrar ve para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(302), pages 9-25.
    11. Okan Eren, 2013. "Pazar Buyuklugu ve Pazar Payi Bilesenleri Kullanilarak Turkiye’nin Ihracat Buyumesi ve Dis Ticaret Acigi Projeksiyonlari : 2013-2030," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1305, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. A.Hakan KARA, 2012. "Küresel kriz sonrası para politikası," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(315), pages 09-36.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aşıcı, Ahmet Atıl, 2015. "On the sustainability of the economic growth path of Turkey: 1995–2009," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1731-1741.
    2. João Amador & João Falcão Silva, 2019. "Cyclically-adjusted current account balances in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Hakan Kara & Cagri Sarikaya, 2023. "Current Account Balance and External Adjustment in Turkiye," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2306, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hakan Kara & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Turkiye�de Konjonkturel Etkilerden Arindirilmis Cari Islemler Dengesi," Working Papers 1340, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Hayrettin KAPLAN & Feridun TUR, 2013. "İhracatta Pazar Kompozisyonundaki Değişimin Dış Talep Göstergesine Etkisi," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 24(86), pages 29-53.
    3. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    4. Saygılı, Hülya & Saygılı, Mesut, 2011. "Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 342-360.
    5. Ertan Oktay & Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Estimation of disaggregated import demand functions for Turkey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 575-585.
    6. Arif Oduncu & Yasin Akcelik & Ergun Ermisoglu, 2013. "Reserve Options Mechanism : A New Macroprudential Tool to Limit the Adverse Effects of Capital Flow Volatility on Exchange Rates," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(3), pages 45-60.
    7. Yeboah, Osei & Naanwaab, Cephas B. & Poku, Peter Hilary Amoah, 2015. "Estimation of Export Demand for U.S Meat Products," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196893, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    8. Hande Küçük & Pinar Özlü & İsmaİl Anil Talaslı & Deren Ünalmış & Canan Yüksel, 2016. "Interest Rate Corridor, Liquidity Management, And The Overnight Spread," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(4), pages 746-761, October.
    9. Gabriela Dobrotă, 2016. "The Influences of the Exchange Rate on the Performance of Romanian Trade," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 471-475, February.
    10. A. Hakan Kara, 2015. "Interest Rate Corridor and the Monetary Policy Stance [Faiz Koridoru ve Para Politikasi Durusu]," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1513, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Oduncu, Arif & Ermişoğlu, Ergun & Polat, Tandogan, 2013. "Credit Growth Volatility," MPRA Paper 49058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Nazlı Karamollaoğlu & Cihan Yalçin, 2020. "Exports, real exchange rates and dollarization: empirical evidence from Turkish manufacturing firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2527-2557, November.
    13. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2014. "External income shocks and Turkish exports: A sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 476-484.
    14. Ketenci, Natalya, 2013. "The effect of global financial crisis on trade elasticities: Evidence from BRIICS countries and Turkey," MPRA Paper 54659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Harun Alp & Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Output Gap : Mind the Composition," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    16. Cagri Sarikaya, 2004. "Export Dynamics in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 4(2), pages 41-64.
    17. Arzu Tay Bayramoglu & Deniz Sukruoglu, 2016. "Non-Energy Import Demand Function in Turkey: New Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(12), pages 750-761, December.
    18. M. Faruk Aydin & Ugur Ciplak & Eray M. Yucel, 2004. "Export Supply and Import Demand Models for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0409, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    19. Murat AKÇA & Vedat KAYA, 2023. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools on Financial Stability: A NARDL Approach for Turkey," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 63-80, June.
    20. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & A. Hakan Kara, 2012. "Iletisim Politikasi ve Enflasyon Beklentileri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1214, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.