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The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model

Author

Listed:
  • Angelini, Elena
  • McAdam, Peter
  • D'Agostino, Antonello
Abstract
This paper documents the structure, estimation and simulation properties of the Italian block of the ESCB-multi-country model (MCM). The model is used regularly as an input into Eurosystem projection exercises and, to a lesser extent, in simulation analysis. The specification of the Italian model follows closely that of the Area-Wide Model (AWM) and indeed the other MCM country blocks (in terms of specification and accounting framework). The MCM is a quarterly estimated structural macroeconomic model that treats the economy in a relatively closed manner. It has a long-run classical equilibrium with a vertical Phillips curve but with some short-run frictions in price/wage setting and factor demands. Consequently, activity is demand-determined in the short-run but supply-determined in the longer run with employment having converged to a level consistent with an exogenously given level of equilibrium unemployment. The precise properties of the model are illustrated using a number of standard variant simulations. JEL Classification: C3, C5, E1, E2

Suggested Citation

  • Angelini, Elena & McAdam, Peter & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2006. "The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 660, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006660
    Note: 338657
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp660.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alpo Willman & Ángel Estrada, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-Multi-Country model," Working Papers 0212, Banco de España.
    2. Angelini, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "The Dutch block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 646, European Central Bank.
    3. Villetelle, Jean-Pierre & Boissay, Frédéric, 2005. "The French block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 456, European Central Bank.
    4. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    5. Tohmas Karlsson & Peter McAdam, 2005. "The Eurosystem's multi-country model and the link block," Chapters, in: Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Klump, Rainer & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2004. "Factor substitution and factor augmenting technical progress in the US: a normalized supply-side system approach," Working Paper Series 367, European Central Bank.
    7. Gabriel Fagan & Julian Morgan (ed.), 2005. "Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3918.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    2. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," Working Paper Series 682, European Central Bank.
    4. Andres Frick & Michael Graff & Jochen Kurt Hartwig & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy," KOF Working papers 10-253, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    5. Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Analyzing MeMo-It supply side properties," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 57-64.
    6. Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_958, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Warmedinger, Thomas & Vetlov, Igor, 2006. "The German block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 654, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italy; Macro-econometric Modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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