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Bridging the short-term and long-term dynamics of economic structural change

Author

Listed:
  • Andres Gomez-Lievano

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

  • Frank Neffke

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

  • Yang Li
  • James McNerney

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

Abstract
In the short-term, economies shift preferentially into new activities that are related to ones they currently do. Such a tendency should have implications for the nature of an economy’s long-term development as well. We explore these implications using a dynamical network model of an economy’s movement into new activities. First, we theoretically derive a pair of coordinates that summarize long-term structural change. One coordinate captures overall ability across activities, the other captures an economy’s composition. Second, we show empirically how these two measures intuitively summarize a variety of facts of long-term economic development. Third, we observe that our measures resemble complexity metrics, though our route to these metrics differs significantly from previous ones. In total, our framework represents a dynamical approach that bridges short-and long-term descriptions of structural change, and suggests how different branches of economic complexity analysis could potentially fit together in one framework.

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Handle: RePEc:glh:wpfacu:180
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File URL: https://growthlab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/2021-10-cid-wp-133-bridging-dynamics-of-economic-structural-change.pdf
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Keywords

economic complexity; structural change;

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